Vegas Golden Knights 5 Best Contracts (2005-2022)

The Vegas Golden Knights have only been in existence for a small fraction of the salary cap era, so doing my standard top 15 wasn’t feasible. They’ve singed at least 10 good contracts, but not 10 “best” contracts. The organization has been aggressive and cut-throat, signing big deals then shipping players out to make room for new expensive players. Management has developed a bad reputation in that regard. Two of their five best were later traded to make room for new assets. The other 3 are such giant bargains the team can’t possibly afford to part with them.
 
There was a Vegas chapter in my 2020 book Hunting Bargains in a Salary Cap World, but the margin of error was high considering most of those deals were very early in their tenure, requiring some “educated guesses” on my part, a few of which were wrong. Two were eventually relocated to their worst contracts list, like William Karlsson, who had a good year one then dropped off a cliff. This list will be expanded in future summers as more deals are signed.

My latest book The Hockey Economist’s Betting Prospectus is now available. It's a comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, broken down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.

If you’d like to browse my other best/worst contract lists, click here. Enjoy! 
 
Please note: The formatting on the graphics got scrambled being copied from Excel into Google Blogger. It's among the reasons my blog is looking for a new home.
 
 
1. Shea Theodore
 

Signed By:	George McPhee		Position:	D
Date:	2018-09-25		Age July 1st:	22
Term:	7 years		Playoff GP:	43
Total Money:	$36.4M		Playoff PTS:	33
Cap Hit:	$5.2M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	36.8	281	177	787
Per 82 GP	5.3	82	52	230	21.9

 
The top spot on this Vegas list was a slam dunk, with Shea breaking out into a legit top pairing defenseman and power play quarterback in year two when he scored at over a 50-point pace before potting nearly a point-per-game in the playoffs. That’s a nice chunk of change, enough that he would never need to work another day in his life when it expires, but he did leave a pile of money on the table. It will be harder to hit a big home run at age 29, especially given the direction the league is heading.
 
He should have bet on himself. Granted, a big share of the money left on the table would have been taken by the Taxman had he signed this in Anaheim. In years 2, 3, and 4 Shea averaged 57 PTS per 82 GP with an expected free agent value between $7.5M and $8M. That’s what we call a bargain.
 
 
2. Marc-Andre Fleury
 

Signed By:	George McPhee		Position:	G
Date:	2018-07-13		Age July 1st:	34
Term:	3 years		Playoff Wins:	11
Total Money:	$21M		Playoff SV%:	0.915
Cap Hit:	$7M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Avg Adj Cap Hit	GP	W	GAA	SV%
Total	7.1	141	81	2.62	0.912

 
Marc-Andre Fleury performed brilliantly in his first Vegas season after coming over from Pittsburgh in the expansion draft, posting a .927 SV% in the regular season and helping the Knights advance to the Cup final. They awarded him with a generous extension in the summer, right before Father Time drove a sword into his back. By the time the contract started, the Flower had devolved into a below average goaltender, leading the team to acquire Robin Lehner as an insurance policy. Robin would overtake Fleury as the primary starter in the playoffs.
 
The following season Fleury was outstanding and won the Vezina trophy, forcing Lehner into a back-up role. However, due to salary cap constraints, the team was forced to trade the defending Vezina winner for basically nothing (which is rare to say the least). Fleury would struggle in Chicago, playing behind a considerably inferior team. Sure there was only one good year here, but every Vezina winner is on one of my best lists.
 
 
3. Chandler Stephenson
 

Signed By:	Kelly McCrimmon		Position:	F
Date:	2020-10-07		Age July 1st:	26
Term:	4 years		Playoff GP:	16
Total Money:	$11M		Playoff PTS:	6
Cap Hit:	$2.75M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	11.1	130	99	208
Per 82 GP	2.8	82	62	131	18.8

 
Chandler Stephenson was a just a bottom 6 forward in Washington, but earned a Stanley Cup ring in 2018. He had only scored 4 PTS in 24 GP when traded to Vegas mid-season for a 5th round pick. His output immediately improved, scoring at a 44-point pace the remainder of that campaign, which ended prematurely due to Covid. After the bubble playoffs, he inked a 4-year extension at a generous price considering his full-season stat line (which includes the poor output in Washington).
 
He eventually found his way onto a line with Mark Stone, and broke out into a 66-point player by year two, producing at more than double his pay grade. You can hardly blame him for accepting an $11M offer given his career stats, but he left some money on the table by not betting on himself, as this treaty won’t expire until after his 30th birthday when it will be very hard to hit a home run on the UFA market.
 
 
4. Logan Thompson
 

Signed By:	Kelly McCrimmon		Position:	G
Date:	2022-01-30		Age July 1st:	25
Term:	3 years		Playoff Wins:	0
Total Money:	$2.3M		Playoff SV%:	0.000
Cap Hit:	$767K		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Avg Adj Cap Hit	GP	W	GAA	SV%
Total	0.8	0	0	0.00	0.000

 
Logan Thompson had 8 minutes of NHL experience when he agreed to this 3-year extension. It’s rare for any player to lock in for 3 years this close to the league minimum, but you can understand that Logan had no idea if he could handle the NHL (frankly McCrimmon had no guarantees either). Soon after locking in at this low price, Robin Lehner suffered a serious injury, thrusting Thompson into the #1 role. He excelled, producing a .913 SV% in 17 starts. He maintained rookie status in year two, and did an admirable job protecting their net after they lost Lehner for the entire season.
 
The young goaltender might have left some money on the table, but he’ll be 28 when this expires, which is still young in goalie years. He still has a potential home run opportunity in his future. On a personal note, I own a few Logan Thompson rookie card and want to see this kid have a great career.
 
 
5. Alex Tuch
 

Signed By:	George McPhee		Position:	F
Date:	2018-10-19		Age July 1st:	23
Term:	7 years		Playoff GP:	36
Total Money:	$33.25M		Playoff PTS:	18
Cap Hit:	$4.75M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	33.4	147	88	379
Per 82 GP	4.8	82	49	211	16.7

 
In the final year of his ELC, Alex Tuch scored at a 58-point pace with an expected free agent value just under $5M. He was paid exactly what his stat line deserved, but did not account for potential future growth. Year one he battled injuries and only scored at a 33-point pace when healthy, but just as this was starting to look bad, he bounced back in year two, to a 49-point pace.
 
Shortly after the bounce back, he was traded to Buffalo for Jack Eichel and broke out to an even higher level, producing at nearly a $6M rate on a per game basis. By year four, he was playing on the Sabres top line scoring better than a point per game (at least when this was written), and assuming he can sustain that for a few seasons, this is a sensational bargain.