2022/23 NHL Week 20 Betting Report

Welcome to my Week 20 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every single game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. If you followed my weekly reports last season, one upgrade is that I’m now logging alt pucklines for every game, favorites +1.5 goals and underdogs -1.5 goals. Click here to see my Week 19 Betting Report or check out my 3rd Quarter Report for more big picture analysis.
 
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My Weekly Profit: -$452
My Season Profit: $15,995
 
This NHL trade deadline was among the most entertaining in recent memory with an insane amount of player movement, but that extraordinary roster volatility kicked my ass this week. My pick decisions are made after consulting several different algorithms, but the data feeding them has been tainted, especially for those teams that made the most moves. They’ll be begging me to bet Chicago for at least a few more weeks, as oddsmakers will surely start charging very expensive prices to buy their opponents. I might just bet them to lose all remaining games by at least 2 goals for the rest of the schedule, regardless of what the formulas recommend.
 
Or perhaps I’ll need to revert to my October method of going 100% on gut instinct and not consulting any algorithms, because there are already several teams where I no longer trust the numbers. The biggest issue specifically will be trusting underdogs until we get a little more data with the post-deadline rosters. One thought that’s crossed my mind is that so much talent moving from bad to good teams might create an opportunity for overs if there are more blowouts, but also, many of the non-playoff teams who unloaded meaningful talent are going to find it harder to score goals. Other teams might score more, but others will score less.
 
Looking back at last season and comparing the 2 weeks heading into the trade deadline versus the 2 weeks after, there was a 4% increase in goal scoring, but that only led to 2 additional overs because they had already been booming. Favorites did improve from a 61% win % up to 67%, and betting $100 on every moneyline would have lost you -$329 pre-deadline versus +$218 profit post-deadline. The lines on favorites also grew more expensive, from -188 on average to -209. With even more teams tanking more aggressively, we should see a bigger price swing in 2023.
 
There has indeed been an uptick in scoring the last 7 days. Scoring had been trending up until a downtick last week in the build-up to the trade deadline, but it resumed its previous course. For the last 2 weeks oddsmakers set the over/under totals at almost perfect equilibrium, where you would have lost money betting either side every game (overs went 25-24-4). My performance this week betting over/under was embarrassing, but the volatility created by this magnitude of roster movement is a plenty adequate excuse for my loss.
 
My two worst categories were overs, followed by unders. Frankly, my results would have been significantly better by simply betting one or the other in every single game. I’m not going to lose any sleep tonight over this embarrassing performance, because trade deadline roster volatility is a plausible scapegoat. It’s not my fault (insert Robyn Williams meme from Good Will Hunting). I owe a debt of gratitude to Minnesota unders, Tampa overs, and Buffalo overs; otherwise this could have been much worse.
 
Losing nearly -$1,200 on over/under is demoralizing, but -$800 came from Chicago and Ottawa, on whom my algorithm went 0-7-1. Chicago overs had hit in 4 of 6 then swung back to unders going 2-1. There was some bad luck at play in those Ottawa games, as I was within about 2 goals of breaking even. They played the Red Wings twice who had been a low scoring team then had high scoring games. Those Ottawa Senators are among the hottest teams in the league winning 8 of their last 11 games, and they even added pieces at the trade deadline.
 
Public Service Announcement! The Tampa Bay Lightning have lost 5 in a row, getting outscored 11-27. I sustained a big loss for 2 of those (vs Pittsburgh and Florida), but won a chunk of that back thanks to Carolina and Buffalo. Tampa was the most profitable team to bet against this week, with Detroit and San Jose (who went a combined 0-8) as the runners up. The Red Wings played 5 games and lost them all. San Jose has held the top spot in my Power Rankings for 7 consecutive weeks, and that’s not because I’m betting them to win hockey games.
 
 

My Week 20 Results

 
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
 

This proved to be a stunningly good week to bet road teams, at least Monday to Thursday. Had you bet $100 on every visitor moneyline for the first 4 days of the week, you banked $1,037. Then home teams went 15-7 Friday to Sunday (betting $100 on each netted $522). I have mused in recent reports that it might be worth investigating home-road splits by day of the week on the theory that fans have greater impact on the weekend, and it might be time for a deep dive. This thought experiment was born from starting my betting reports on Friday, finishing on Sunday, and having to re-write home-road analysis.

I had a strong week betting road underdog moneylines, but underdog moneyline was a bad category overall. I’m pessimistic about dogs post-deadline, given the magnitude of how much talent was transferred from bad to good. As mentioned above, we did see a post-deadline increase in the rate of return on favorites last season, but you can expect expensive line prices. Last week I reported losing money shorting back-to-backs (after fantastic 2nd and 3rd quarters), but they were back on top of my category leaderboard 7 days later (banking $1,200 on the moneyline and -1.5 goals combined).

 
We also saw regression in the longshot demographic this week, which was entirely predictable. I openly questioned their sustainability in my previous report, citing the trade deadline and teams like Chicago and Arizona selling everything that wasn’t nailed down. The deadline was on Friday, but a bulk of the transactions were made days in advance. Chicago has now lost 4 in a row, San Jose 5 in a row, Columbus and Arizona 2 in a row. We’re already seeing the worst teams get worse. The Ducks have won 4 of their last 5, but are now without Kulikov and Klingberg.
 
 
My Team of the Week: Minnesota Wild, +$714
 
As appallingly bad as my over/under performance was this week, one team that did deliver was the Minnesota Wild. Their unders went 3-0 and continued their scorching hot run, which is now at 16-1-1 in their last 18 games. The Wild also won all 3 of their games, and I cashed in on two of those Ws. This team has been near the top of my Power Rankings for the last 10 weeks and those unders have been a major contributing factor. Minnesota has now won 8 of their last 9 games, adding some pieces at the deadline, and are starting to heat up at the perfect time. Note to self.
 
My next best team of the week was the Arizona Coyotes, who have now lost 5 of their last 6 games after unloading several pieces leading up to the trade deadline. I have promoted the Yotes as a value play at a few different points of the season when they were outperforming their line price, but in the final stretch I’ll be aggressively betting them to lose. My biggest windfall in the last 7 days was going “all in” on Carolina (half moneyline half -1.5 goals), and my gut is telling me to go big on their opponents -1.5 goals for the rest of the schedule, I’m just nervous about the goalies. They kept both at the deadline, and either is more than capable of stealing any given game.
 
 
My Worst Team of the Week: Vegas Golden Knights, -$810
 
The Vegas Golden Knights may be without Mark Stone and Logan Thompson, but that didn’t stop them from going 3-1 this week. Jack Eichel has gone into beast mode and looks like he’ll personally carry them into the playoffs. The problem from my end is that 2 of those wins were against Carolina and New Jersey, two teams I’ve been riding hard. “Vegas is frisky” was written in my game notes for both those matches, but my allegiance to the Canes and Devils superseded that warning. Vegas was also a casualty of my other strategy of betting east to beat west as often as possible. They went 3-0 vs the Eastern Conference.
 
The Florida Panthers were my second worst team of the week, which started when they lost Barkov and Bennett to injury, prompting me to lay a $500 bet on Tampa to beat them. The game was in Tampa and the Panthers are much worse on the road, yet won 4-1 (little did I know the Lightning were embarking on an 0-5 slump). The Panthers next game was at home against Nashville, who traded away several players, but the Preds won 2-1. So Florida beat a really good team on the road, then lost to a bad team at home. That feels like it’s not my fault.
 
 
My 3 Best Market Bets of Week 20:                  Overall Best Market Bets of Week 20:
 
1) Shorting back-to-backs ML: +$898                  1) Home favorites -1.5 goals: +$637
2) Road underdog moneyline: +$670                   2) Shorting back-to-back -1.5 goals: +$242
3) Heavy favorites -1.5 goals: +$558                    3) Shorting back-to-back ML: +$179
 
My 3 Worst Market Bets of Week 20:              Overall Worst Market Bets of Week 20:
 
1) Overs: -$640                                                      1) Underdog moneyline: -$755
2) Unders: -$546                                                    2) Home moneyline: -$724
3) Road favorites moneyline: -$474                      3) Road underdog +1.5 goals: -$544
 
My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 20:             Overall Best Teams To Bet On:
(over/under/hedges not included)                          ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
 
1) Minnesota Wild: +$498                                     1) Ottawa Senators: +$1,271
2) Ottawa Senators: +$429                                    2) Vancouver Canucks: +$709
3) Los Angeles Kings: +$369                                3) Florida Panthers: +$610
 
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week 20
(over/under/hedges not included)
 
1) Tampa Bay Lightning, -$850
2) Toronto Maple Leafs, -$600
3) Detroit Red Wings, -$400
 
My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week 20:     Overall Best Teams To Bet Against:
(over/under/hedges not included)                          ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
 
1) Chicago Blackhawks, +$521                             1) Tampa Bay Lightning: +$1,373
2) Colorado Avalanche, +$503                              2) Detroit Red Wings: +$1,139
3) Arizona Coyotes, +$501                                    3) San Jose Sharks: +$1,155
 
My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week 20:
(over/under/hedges not included)
 
1) Vancouver Canucks, -$600
2) Vegas Golden Knights, -$593
3) Florida Panthers, -$500
 
Market’s Best Over/Under Bets In Week 20:  
($100 wagers)
 
1) Ottawa overs, +$361
2) Florida unders, +$295
3) Dallas overs, +$282
 

Team By Team Power Rankings

These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Power Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.