2022/23 NHL Week 22 Betting Report

Welcome to my Week 22 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every single game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. If you followed my weekly reports last season, one upgrade is that I’m now logging alt pucklines for every game, favorites +1.5 goals and underdogs -1.5 goals. Click here to see my Week 21 Betting Report.
 
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My Weekly Profit: $2,400
My Season Profit: $18,095
 
After struggling with my betting picks in and around the trade deadline with back-to-back losing weeks, all of my losses from that roster chaos were recovered in the last 7 days. It must have been St. Patrick’s Day, because I discovered a big pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. This was the highest scoring week of the entire season to date (by a considerable margin), making it easily the most profitable to smash overs. Prior to this, if you bet $100 on every over for every game, your best performance was $321 in week 4 (posting a net loss in 15 of the first 21). Well you would have more than tripled your previous best in week 22 with a whopping $1,056 profit.
 
It was nice to see my new over/under algorithm deliver healthy earnings after consecutive lackluster performances (Saturday was especially sensational for me, going 10-2-1 on my picks). Overs went 33-19-2 with 12 teams hitting at least three. What’s interested is that you could have generated greater revenue by betting overs on the closing line, which means the public was laying more on unders while all these extra goals were being scored. I don’t know who these people are, but I’m reasonably sure none of them are in my Twitter feed. Must be “sharps” dropping big money.
 
Profitable as overs were, my best category was actually favorites moneyline, being driven primarily by road teams. Visitor moneyline has been by far my most profitable category this season, more than doubling back-to-backs moneyline. Yes they’re winning more regularly than last season, but there’s also slightly more value on their lines. Intuitively it does feel like post-Covid home fans might have a greater impact, but also, players are no longer facing any strict pandemic restrictions when they’re on the road. Maybe the increased freedom is leading to better output?
 
Underdogs in general did not perform well, unless their moneyline was listed at +200 or higher, with Buffalo beating Toronto, Montreal beating Pittsburgh, Chicago beating Nashville, and Chicago beating Boston. The Blackhawks beating the Bruins 6-3 as +340 underdogs (or +850 on the alt puckline -1.5 goals) was one of the bigger upsets of the season to date (Arizona upset Toronto as a +400 dog on the closing line in October for the biggest underdog victory). Management can try their hardest to tank, but players want to win.
 
Speaking of dogs, the two most profitable teams to bet every game this week were the Chicago Blackhawks and Arizona Coyotes, which is counter-intuitive considering they were arguably the most aggressive dismantling their rosters at the trade deadline (they went a combined 5-1, with Chicago’s only loss coming vs Arizona). If your strategy in the aftermath or March 3rd was to lay big money on Chicago opponents, you’re not doing well. I actually bet Chicago +1.5 goals at +135 vs Boston, which would have seemed absolutely ludicrous to me just 2 weeks ago when I was eyeing a big short selling opportunity.
 
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, that’s the advantage of posting weekly betting reports outlining where all my money was won and lost. It generally doesn’t take me long to figure out when something isn’t working. That being said, sometimes something that looks like a potential emerging trend ends up being random variance that crashes backwards the following week. It cuts both ways. I could be back here next week talking about unders being the best bet. The trick is to keep an open mind and be willing to switch strategies as needed.
 
After praising the outstanding profit of underdogs +1.5 goals last week, favorites came storming back on the puckline -1.5. If you bet $100 on each, you banked $1,352. It’s always disheartening when I report on a trend, only to have it swing back hard in the opposite direction, but it happens more than you might think. Most people would expect regression back to the mean to be a gradual process, but it can be hard and fast. I actually still performed well betting dogs +1.5, mostly because I was only taking those that were close to plus money, ergo, longshots.
 
 

My Week 22 Results

 
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
 

As previously mentioned, road teams delivered another strong result, also winning 60% of their games on Saturday and Sunday. The category was a big loser last season, when they won 46.3% of the games. The average moneyline has been higher in 2022/23, but has only increased from +107 to +109. The reason for substantial increase in rate of return is that they’re winning 48.1%. I do not currently have an explanation as to why that is or if it’s sustainable, but I’m going to continue riding this moneytrain until it comes off the tracks. I’ll let you know when that happens.
 
Speaking of my best categories, this was actually the worst week of the entire season to be shorting back-to-backs, but I’m not terribly concerned. This remains one of my best categories on the season (albeit with diminishing profit margins), one that I’ve been pumping the tires on for most of the schedule. I’ll admit, the prices have been getting more expensive, as the words “this line makes no sense if it wasn’t back-to-back” have been showing up with greater frequency in my comment section. Despite those warnings, it’s really hard to stop myself. Multiple weeks of losses would be a good motivator, but we’re not there yet.
 
 
My Team of the Week: Vancouver Canucks, +$895
 
I’m on a heater when it comes to picking the correct outcome of Vancouver Canucks games that started last week as their hot streak was taking hold. Rick Tocchet is doing exactly what ownership wanted him to do, fuck up their draft lottery odds. Mission accomplished! I went 3 for 4 betting their wins-losses and 4 for 4 on their over/under. The team has been getting quality goaltending from Thatcher Demko since his return from injury, helping them win hockey games but reducing the profitability of their overs. My algorithm has performed remarkably well navigating those ups and downs the last few weeks.
 
The aforementioned red-hot Arizona Coyotes were my second best team of the week, as the alleged tankers have now won 6 of their last 10 games, but nearly all of that success is on home ice. Despite all the talent they unloaded at the trade deadline, I have still bet them to win or cover in 7 of their 8 post-deadline games (mostly on home ice). Fortunately, 7 their last 12 are also on home ice, but you do need to exercise much more caution when they’re on the road (thank you to Gretzky Betzkys for reminding me that the success is venue specific).
 
 
My Worst Team of the Week: Edmonton Oilers, -$249
 
My week went so well that it was slim pickings in my worst team category. The Edmonton Oilers did sink to the bottom of an otherwise splendid leaderboard, but at least it was the smallest loss reported on this blog by any worst team this season (the next closest was the Islanders at -$518 in week 18). My big problem was betting their opponents in all 3 games and Edmonton won them all, but thankfully they were small wagers, as is my tendency when betting underdogs (hint EDM was favored in all 3). Their overs went 2-1, and I also went 2-1, betting the over in all three.
 
There was only a few dollars difference between Edmonton and the 2^nd place Florida Panthers, who won both their games despite me betting their opponents. I’m almost ashamed to admit betting Montreal and the under in Florida’s 9-5 victory, but it was only one blemish in an otherwise sublime experience. There was even a point on Saturday night (when a big chunk of this report is written) that I almost considered making a large, deliberately bad wager just to give me something to write about here. Sometimes losing makes for more entertaining analysis when approached in a self-deprecating manner.
 
 
My 3 Best Market Bets of Week 22:                  Overall Best Market Bets of Week 22:
 
1) Favorites moneyline: +$1,341                           1) Favorites -1.5 goals: +$1,352
2) Overs: +$1,269                                                  2) Overs: +$1,056
3) Road moneyline: +$1,091                                  3) Longshots moneyline: +$540
 
My 3 Worst Market Bets of Week 22:              Overall Worst Market Bets of Week 22:
 
1) Underdogs moneyline: -$570                           1) Unders: -$1,557
2) Shorting back-to-backs ML+PL: -$445           2) Underdogs +1.5 goals: -$1,188
3) Road underdogs +1.5 goals: -$126                  3) Road underdogs -1.5 goals: -$825
 
My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 22:            Overall Best Teams To Bet On:
(over/under/hedges not included)                         ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
 
1) Vancouver Canucks: +$460                              1) Chicago Blackhawks: +$1,246
2) Tampa Bay Lightning: +$460                           2) Arizona Coyotes: +$1,026
3) Colorado Avalanche: +$451                             3) New York Rangers: +$939
 
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week 22
(over/under/hedges not included)
 
1) Pittsburgh Penguins, -$450
2) Ottawa Senators, -$300
3) Buffalo Sabres, -$267
 
My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week 22:     Overall Best Teams To Bet Against:
(over/under/hedges not included)                         ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
 
1) San Jose Sharks, +$646                                    1) Pittsburgh Penguins: +$1,547
2) Montreal Canadiens, +$273                              2) Washington Capitals: +$853
3) Dallas Stars, +$200                                           3) Winnipeg Jets: +$663
 
My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week 22:
(over/under/hedges not included)
 
1) Edmonton Oilers, -$300
2) New York Rangers, -$300
3) Florida Panthers, -$200
 
Market’s Best Over/Under Bets In Week 22:  
($100 wagers)
 
1) Washington overs, +$387
2) Montreal overs, +$372
3) Carolina overs, +$288
 
Team By Team Power Rankings

These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Power Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.