Welcome
to my 2022/23 Week Twenty Three Fantasy Hockey Waiver Wire Report for those
competing in head-to-head categories or rotisserie leagues. There are both
standard and deep league acquisition targets. This report focuses on the best
options among those who are likely to be available in your league as opposed to
the universally owned players. There are 10 recommendations in total, 2
goalies, 2 defensemen, and 6 forwards. Some of these are only short-term
targets, while others you may want to keep permanently.
I’d like to take a moment to plug my latest book, The Hockey Economist’s Betting Prospectus. It's a comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, broken down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.
Best Standard League Adds (25% to 65% Yahoo ownership):
1) Andrei Kuzmenko, Van, (62% Yahoo ownership): Kuzmenko received an honorable mention here last week, and the Canucks have another 4-game schedule ahead. They also play Sat-Sun against LA and Anaheim if you’re fighting to make the playoffs (I assume most of my readers are comfortably in a playoff spot, unless you’re in a hyper-competitive league). Kuzmenko plays top line and top power play with Elias Pettersson, scoring 16 PTS (12 of them goals) with 29 shots in his last 13 GP. He’s eligible at both wings and has been recommended here often this season. Another more available option is David Perron in Detroit. In his last 15 GP, Perron has 9 PTS (6 on the PP) with 39 shots and 22 hits. The points are pedestrian, but good peripherals, and the Red Wings have the most porous opponents lined up of any team this week. I love their Mon-Tue-Thu Florida-St. Louis-St. Louis combo, to get the ball rolling on your match.
2) Bowen Byram, Col, (63% Yahoo ownership): The Colorado Avalanche easily have the best streaming schedule for the Yahoo playoffs, playing most often on light nights, with the most defensively porous opponents on their slate (Detroit is number one for just round 1). It’s worth checking which Avs are available in your leagues. Bowen Byram and Sam Girard play together on their second pair, and both see time on their second power play unit. In their last 15 GP, Byram has 8 PTS (2 on the PP) with 28 shots and 34 hits while Girard has 11 PTS (3 on the PP) with 22 shots and 10 hits. Byram is the better option, but Girard is available in twice as many leagues, so should be easier to find. Also take notice that MacKenzie Weegar has been putting up improved numbers (at least peripherally) with 6 PTS, 29 shots and 45 hits in his last 15 GP. Flames have a strong schedule ahead.
3) Jason Zucker, Pit, (43% Yahoo ownership): Like Kuzmeko, Jason Zucker has also been goal-heavy, with 11 tucks and zero assists in his last 15 GP, adding 48 shots and 37 hits (great peripherals for category leagues). He’s doing most of his damage on the second line with Malkin, while also playing on the second power play unit. Pens have an even better schedule in two weeks. Meanwhile, J.T Compher has only scored once in his last 8 games, but he’s still playing second line and top power play in Colorado. As mentioned, if you are jammed up Tue-Thu-Sat, you can get 4 games from Compher. He does have 11 PTS in his last 15 GP, with 31 shots and a +7, so the outlook does improve as you look back father in his log.
4) Pheonix Copley, LA, (54% Yahoo ownership): The LA Kings have been alternating goalies, and Copley (.908 SV% in his last 9 games) looks to be in line to start against Calgary Monday and St. Louis Sunday, with a high win probability. I much prefer Korpisalo, but he should only get one start Saturday against Winnipeg, a team struggling to score. That’s a great spot-start opportunity if you wait until the weekend, and Korpisalo will probably be my top recommendation next week when he’s slated to start against Calgary and Seattle. Meanwhile:Philip Grubauer
might not help you much in save percentage (at .898 in his last 6 games), but you’ve
got a reasonable shot at 1-2 wins. They play twice against the low scoring
Nashville Predators, and Grubauer is getting a large majority of the starts to
prepare for the playoffs. (Grubauer was injured Saturday) I might be interested in Pyotr Kochetkov with
Carolina playing 4 games, but it looks like Koch would be in line for the
Rangers and Leafs, which are higher risk starts.
5) Robert Thomas, Stl, (63% Yahoo ownership): The St. Louis Blues have some potentially high scoring opponents coming on their 4-game slate (especially Detroit-Detroit-Anaheim), and Robert Thomas centers the top line and second power play, scoring 14 PTS in his last 15 GP with 21 shots. The peripheral numbers are not appealing, but he’s a potentially big source of points. If you want peripherals, Mikael Backlund has been on a my radar a lot lately, but I’ll often shy away due to the center-only eligibility. If you can fit him into your line-up, he’s extra valuable in category leagues with shots, scoring 13 PTS in his last 15 GP with a whopping 60 shots and 22 hits.
Honorable Mentions: David Perron, Mikael Backlund, J.T Compher, Philip Grubauer, Sam Girard
Last Week: Dmitri Orlov, Tyler Bertuzzi, Joonas Korpisalo, Tom Wilson, Dylan Cozens
Best Deep League Adds (under 25% ownership):
1) Anthony Beauvillier, Van, (15% Yahoo ownership): If you added Beauvillier on my advice last week, you should let it ride (unless your roster is full Tue-Thu-Sat). The dual-eligible winger is playing top line with Elias Pettersson and second power play, scoring 13 PTS in his last 13 GP with 31 shots and 12 hits. Another interesting target is Eetu Luostarinen in Florida, available in 93% of leagues and playing top line with Barkov and Duclair, as well as the 2nd power play unit. He is eligible at center and LW, scoring 10 PTS with 22 shots and 12 hits in his last 11 GP.
2) Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Car, (14% Yahoo ownership): Jesperi Kotkaniemi suddenly finds himself centering the Hurricanes top line with Necas and Teravainen, in addition to their second power play unit. In his last 14 GP, the C-LW has scored 13 PTS (5 on the PP) with 21 shots, 19 hits, and a +7. If you want someone more widely available, Calle Jarnkrok is playing with Marner and Matthews, is available in 96% of Yahoo leagues, eligible at every forward position, scoring 5 PTS in his last 5 GP (albeit with only 4 shots and 4 hits which isn’t good). The Leafs play 4 games, mostly against tough defensive teams, so you’re kinda just hoping to scoop up some 5v5 Marner-Matthews residuals.
3) Casey DeSmith, Pit, (16% Yahoo ownership): Of all the goaltending options under 25% owned, two really stand out, Casey DeSmith and Akira Schmid in New Jersey. DeSmith has had some rough patches this season, but has settled down as of late, posting a .914 SV% in his last 7 games. The Penguins play 4 times each of the next two weeks, and Casey is getting regular starts. This week they’ll face some higher scoring opponents, but they have a fantastic schedule in round two of the Yahoo playoffs. Schmid has been even better, posting a .932 SV% in his last 6 games. The Devils play 3 games in round one and 4 in round two, facing some struggling offenses in both weeks. I’ll probably cut and paste these two into my next waiver wire report.
4) Barrett Hayton, Ari, (25% Yahoo ownership): Barrett Hayton has been showing up on my radar often lately, but like Backlund I’ve been reluctant to make a recommendation because of center-only eligibility. He’s now undeniable, scoring 16 PTS in his last 15 GP (4 on the PP) with 45 shots. The Coyotes play 4 games, including Wed-Fri-Sun when it will be easier to fit him into your line-up. Hayton is top line and top power play with Keller, finally showing some strong returns for his high draft pedigree. If you’re looking for someone more widely available, Phil Tomasino is only 3% owned and playing top line second power play in Nashville, netting 5 PTS in his last 6 GP.
5) Marcus
Pettersson, Pit, (12% Yahoo ownership): This is the very first time that
Marcus Pettersson has been featured in one of my weekly Fantasy Hockey reports
(I did a search of my blog history, and he only appears on the Penguins worst
contracts list). In his last 15 GP, the blueliner has netted 11 PTS with 21
shots and 31 hits. The Pens play 4 this week, including Mon-Wed. Note Pettersson was injured Saturday, so you're better off with Juuso Valimaki who is still
quarterbacking the Coyotes top power play, scoring 10 PTS (3 on the PP) in his
last 15 GP with 20 shots and 12 hits. Arizona plays 4 games, but they’ll be facing
some defensively responsible opponents.
Honorable Mentions: Juuso Valimaki, Akria Schmid, Phil Tomasino, Eetu Luostarinen, Calle Jarnkrok
Last Week: Akira Schmid, Adam Boqvist, Josh Anderson, Tomas Tatar, Anthony Beauvillier
I’d like to take a moment to plug my latest book, The Hockey Economist’s Betting Prospectus. It's a comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, broken down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.
Best Standard League Adds (25% to 65% Yahoo ownership):
1) Andrei Kuzmenko, Van, (62% Yahoo ownership): Kuzmenko received an honorable mention here last week, and the Canucks have another 4-game schedule ahead. They also play Sat-Sun against LA and Anaheim if you’re fighting to make the playoffs (I assume most of my readers are comfortably in a playoff spot, unless you’re in a hyper-competitive league). Kuzmenko plays top line and top power play with Elias Pettersson, scoring 16 PTS (12 of them goals) with 29 shots in his last 13 GP. He’s eligible at both wings and has been recommended here often this season. Another more available option is David Perron in Detroit. In his last 15 GP, Perron has 9 PTS (6 on the PP) with 39 shots and 22 hits. The points are pedestrian, but good peripherals, and the Red Wings have the most porous opponents lined up of any team this week. I love their Mon-Tue-Thu Florida-St. Louis-St. Louis combo, to get the ball rolling on your match.
2) Bowen Byram, Col, (63% Yahoo ownership): The Colorado Avalanche easily have the best streaming schedule for the Yahoo playoffs, playing most often on light nights, with the most defensively porous opponents on their slate (Detroit is number one for just round 1). It’s worth checking which Avs are available in your leagues. Bowen Byram and Sam Girard play together on their second pair, and both see time on their second power play unit. In their last 15 GP, Byram has 8 PTS (2 on the PP) with 28 shots and 34 hits while Girard has 11 PTS (3 on the PP) with 22 shots and 10 hits. Byram is the better option, but Girard is available in twice as many leagues, so should be easier to find. Also take notice that MacKenzie Weegar has been putting up improved numbers (at least peripherally) with 6 PTS, 29 shots and 45 hits in his last 15 GP. Flames have a strong schedule ahead.
3) Jason Zucker, Pit, (43% Yahoo ownership): Like Kuzmeko, Jason Zucker has also been goal-heavy, with 11 tucks and zero assists in his last 15 GP, adding 48 shots and 37 hits (great peripherals for category leagues). He’s doing most of his damage on the second line with Malkin, while also playing on the second power play unit. Pens have an even better schedule in two weeks. Meanwhile, J.T Compher has only scored once in his last 8 games, but he’s still playing second line and top power play in Colorado. As mentioned, if you are jammed up Tue-Thu-Sat, you can get 4 games from Compher. He does have 11 PTS in his last 15 GP, with 31 shots and a +7, so the outlook does improve as you look back father in his log.
4) Pheonix Copley, LA, (54% Yahoo ownership): The LA Kings have been alternating goalies, and Copley (.908 SV% in his last 9 games) looks to be in line to start against Calgary Monday and St. Louis Sunday, with a high win probability. I much prefer Korpisalo, but he should only get one start Saturday against Winnipeg, a team struggling to score. That’s a great spot-start opportunity if you wait until the weekend, and Korpisalo will probably be my top recommendation next week when he’s slated to start against Calgary and Seattle. Meanwhile:
5) Robert Thomas, Stl, (63% Yahoo ownership): The St. Louis Blues have some potentially high scoring opponents coming on their 4-game slate (especially Detroit-Detroit-Anaheim), and Robert Thomas centers the top line and second power play, scoring 14 PTS in his last 15 GP with 21 shots. The peripheral numbers are not appealing, but he’s a potentially big source of points. If you want peripherals, Mikael Backlund has been on a my radar a lot lately, but I’ll often shy away due to the center-only eligibility. If you can fit him into your line-up, he’s extra valuable in category leagues with shots, scoring 13 PTS in his last 15 GP with a whopping 60 shots and 22 hits.
Honorable Mentions: David Perron, Mikael Backlund, J.T Compher, Philip Grubauer, Sam Girard
Last Week: Dmitri Orlov, Tyler Bertuzzi, Joonas Korpisalo, Tom Wilson, Dylan Cozens
Best Deep League Adds (under 25% ownership):
1) Anthony Beauvillier, Van, (15% Yahoo ownership): If you added Beauvillier on my advice last week, you should let it ride (unless your roster is full Tue-Thu-Sat). The dual-eligible winger is playing top line with Elias Pettersson and second power play, scoring 13 PTS in his last 13 GP with 31 shots and 12 hits. Another interesting target is Eetu Luostarinen in Florida, available in 93% of leagues and playing top line with Barkov and Duclair, as well as the 2nd power play unit. He is eligible at center and LW, scoring 10 PTS with 22 shots and 12 hits in his last 11 GP.
2) Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Car, (14% Yahoo ownership): Jesperi Kotkaniemi suddenly finds himself centering the Hurricanes top line with Necas and Teravainen, in addition to their second power play unit. In his last 14 GP, the C-LW has scored 13 PTS (5 on the PP) with 21 shots, 19 hits, and a +7. If you want someone more widely available, Calle Jarnkrok is playing with Marner and Matthews, is available in 96% of Yahoo leagues, eligible at every forward position, scoring 5 PTS in his last 5 GP (albeit with only 4 shots and 4 hits which isn’t good). The Leafs play 4 games, mostly against tough defensive teams, so you’re kinda just hoping to scoop up some 5v5 Marner-Matthews residuals.
3) Casey DeSmith, Pit, (16% Yahoo ownership): Of all the goaltending options under 25% owned, two really stand out, Casey DeSmith and Akira Schmid in New Jersey. DeSmith has had some rough patches this season, but has settled down as of late, posting a .914 SV% in his last 7 games. The Penguins play 4 times each of the next two weeks, and Casey is getting regular starts. This week they’ll face some higher scoring opponents, but they have a fantastic schedule in round two of the Yahoo playoffs. Schmid has been even better, posting a .932 SV% in his last 6 games. The Devils play 3 games in round one and 4 in round two, facing some struggling offenses in both weeks. I’ll probably cut and paste these two into my next waiver wire report.
4) Barrett Hayton, Ari, (25% Yahoo ownership): Barrett Hayton has been showing up on my radar often lately, but like Backlund I’ve been reluctant to make a recommendation because of center-only eligibility. He’s now undeniable, scoring 16 PTS in his last 15 GP (4 on the PP) with 45 shots. The Coyotes play 4 games, including Wed-Fri-Sun when it will be easier to fit him into your line-up. Hayton is top line and top power play with Keller, finally showing some strong returns for his high draft pedigree. If you’re looking for someone more widely available, Phil Tomasino is only 3% owned and playing top line second power play in Nashville, netting 5 PTS in his last 6 GP.
5)
Honorable Mentions: Juuso Valimaki, Akria Schmid, Phil Tomasino, Eetu Luostarinen, Calle Jarnkrok
Last Week: Akira Schmid, Adam Boqvist, Josh Anderson, Tomas Tatar, Anthony Beauvillier
Here is the team-by-team schedule for the first two rounds of the fantasy playoffs. Highlighted in blue are the more ideal opponents for your goalies, based on goals per game of the opponent in the 2nd half of the season, broken down by home-road.
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