2022/23 NHL Week 24 Betting Report

Welcome to my Week 24 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every single game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. If you followed my weekly reports last season, one upgrade is that I’m now logging alt pucklines for every game, favorites +1.5 goals and underdogs -1.5 goals. Click here to see my Week 23 Betting Report.
 
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My Weekly Profit: -$366
My Season Profit: $17,781
 
Some of my recent betting reports urged caution laying money on favorites -1.5 goals due to poor performance. Well…APRIL FOOLS!!! This was the best week of the entire season to bet faves -1.5, producing a little over $1,000 profit on $100 wagers, with favorites moneyline right behind them as the second best category (+$631). After a bad start to the week, favorites went 24-4 on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, covering the puckline -1.5 goals in 19 of those 28 games. I had largely been staying away from favorite pucklines the last few weeks because of those aforementioned struggles, which is very different from last year’s post-deadline data.
 
Yet I’m also cautious about declaring the floodgates open because we’re already seeing playoff teams rest stars (like Marchand and Marner). I’m very nervous about pressing my foot down on the gas pedal. Certainly the tankers are getting it done, with Anaheim, Arizona, Chicago, Columbus, Montreal, and Washington (who aren’t exactly tanking) going a combined 2-19. My line value algorithms have really been pushing me towards picking those teams (except Washington), but that led to a significant loss on dogs ML, signaling it’s time to pump the brakes.
 
My betting report last week expressed confusion about why favorites were losing the war versus underdogs in the post-deadline period, even taking the time to chart out how well they performed at this time last season. They continued losing money from Monday to Wednesday, prompting me to dig a little deeper into what was happening, if the line prices were more expensive or if they were simply winning fewer games. It was entirely plausible that oddsmakers looked at the same data as me, and adjusted the prices accordingly to neuter any advantage.
 
The results of my deep dive unveiled that the line prices have been very similar to last season post-deadline, with favorites actually winning at a lower frequency. Infact, home favorites have been slightly cheaper. If you bet $100 on every favorite moneyline in the 27 days after the trade deadline, you lost a little more than -$1,000; but making that same wager last season for the 27 days post-deadline would have generated $1,200 profit. Well that investigation was Thursday afternoon, which marked the precise moment the script was flipped and they got hot.
 
The paradox that had confused me was a historic amount of player movement at the 2023 deadline, far more than the previous season. Teams that added significant talent actually got worse, while others that unloaded somehow improved. Perhaps shaking up the rosters to that level disrupts the chemistry on good teams in the near term, or perhaps we lay too much weight on individual players ability to impact the outcome, especially those unaccustomed to the habits of their teammates. That much movement may have simply led to a longer chemistry building period.
 
While favorites did perform better on the whole post-deadline in 2022, one big difference has been those favored by at least -400 on the moneyline. Last year in March and April, they only won 65% of their games, despite needing at least 80% to turn a profit (on equal sized wagers). If you bet $100 on all of them in 2022, you lost -$456 on the moneyline, and -$319 on the puckline -1.5 goals. In March 2023, teams that opened south of -400 won 89% of their games, which only produced $84 of profit on the moneyline, and -$266 on the puckline.
 
Of all the tanking that’s going on, the Blue Jackets rolling out Michael Hutchinson is a stroke of genius that might deliver them Connor Bedard. One of my betting rules is “always bet Michael Hutchinson to lose every opportunity”. Having a reliably terrible goaltender is also helping their overs. The Detroit Red Wings have been running Alex Nedeljkovic in goal lately, which was initially seen by me as an exciting opportunity to bet against them. Then they went 3-1 this week costing me a big bet on Carolina Thursday, but winning some of that back when they slayed the Toronto Maple Leafs as +250 dogs on Sunday.
 
One dog that is not falling in line with the other tankers is the San Jose Sharks, who have won 3 straight and might have taken themselves out of the Connor Bedard conversation in the process. Perhaps they should have signed Michael Hutchinson, instead of rolling out James Reimer. I have been excited for the final 10 days of the season anticipating another boom for underdogs as playoff teams start resting star players. We’re not quite at the mass-resting stage yet, but that should realistically favor underdogs when it peaks. My upcoming strategy might have to vary from team to team, because it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog!
 
 

My Week 24 Results

 
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
 

The March scoring boom finally started losing steam as the month came to a close, as this was the lowest scoring week in a little more than 2 months. Goals per game the last 3 weeks (counting shootout winners as goals): 7.2, 6.6, and 6.1. We are trending back down after a nice little scoring run. Unders went 26-24-6, barely breaking even on equal sized wagers (after overs went 5-3-1 on Sunday). My over/under algorithm posted a small loss thanks mostly to Anaheim, Winnipeg (who suddenly started scoring), Pittsburgh, and Detroit.
 
If you do love betting overs, the best teams for total goals (for + against) in the last 7 days were Arizona, Vancouver, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Vegas, and Detroit. Those teams went a combined 16-5 on their overs, all averaging more than 7 goals per game. At the other end of the spectrum, the lowest goals teams were Los Angeles, Carolina, Nashville, and the Islanders, who went 13-1-1 on their unders. My algorithm performed much better on the higher goal teams than the low (Detroit notwithstanding).
 
It’s funny that I posted a Tweet Thursday night proclaiming that oddsmakers had effectively neutered the profitability of betting against back-to-backs, but that I was having difficulty taking my foot off the gas pedal. Then they went 7-2 Friday to Sunday, rewarding my faith, living in the fast lane (the biggest winner being Detroit +250 vs a tired Leafs team that rested Marner). Shorting back-to-backs was actually more profitable on the puckline -1.5 goals (for both favorites and dogs), but I went 0-2 on mine.
 
 
My Team of the Week: Montreal Canadiens, +$553
 
The primary reason that the Montreal Canadiens finished atop my profitability leaderboard this week was their upset win against Buffalo (where my game notes said “Sabres struggling too much to be -225") as +190 underdogs (also hitting the over) and the Habs loss to the Hurricanes. The team played 4 games going 1-3 and I went 3-1 picking their wins and losses. The injuries are starting to pile up on this roster, and they only have 4 wins in their last 10 games, but Marty St. Louis has them playing hard. They could be a sleeper team in the last 2 weeks.
 
The New York Rangers have been near the bottom of my Power Rankings for most of the season, with a surprising amount of loss coming from picking them to win. I’m rarely rewarded for my faith, but whenever I try betting their opponent, it almost always blows up in my face. Not this week, winning big bets on their victories against Columbus and Washington. My money has been on New York in 7 of their last 8 games, the one exception being a back-to-back against the Sabres, which Buffalo won and me along with them.
 
 
My Worst Team of the Week: Anaheim Ducks, -$950
 
The Anaheim Ducks were massive underdogs in all their games this week and went winless. I’ve been betting the Ducks to win/cover far too often because their lines are so juicy and they recently had a homestand against several opponents who played the night before. That might also have been a big reason why my profits shorting back-to-backs had stalled. They played in Seattle and Edmonton this week closing at +295 and +390, which drew a glowing gaze from my line value algorithms (they lost both by a combined score of 10-1). I also went 0-4 on Anaheim over/under, with their unders going 3-1.
 
Sunday I bet Calgary -1.5 goals and that was the one game the Ducks showed up, but still lost 4-5. It’s no coincidence that my second worst team was the Calgary Flames. Failure to cover the Sunday puckline was the clincher, but they were already half-way there before puck drop. The Flames are trying to chase down the Jets for the last wildcard and won all 3 of their games. The first two, my money was on LA and Vancouver, which the Flames won by one goal. Betting Calgary to lose has been a very profitable wager this season, but not this week.
 
 
My 3 Best Market Bets of Week 24:                  Overall Best Market Bets of Week 24:
 
1) Shorting back-to-back ML: +$925                   1) Favorites -1.5 goals: +$1,013
2) Favorites moneyline: +$653                             2) Favorites moneyline: +$631
3) Longshots ML: +$285                                      3) Shorting back-to-backs -1.5 goals: +$560
 
My 3 Worst Market Bets of Week 24:              Overall Worst Market Bets of Week 24:
 
1) Underdog moneyline: -$685                             1) Underdogs -1.5 goals: -$1,740
2) Shorting back-to-back -1.5 goals: -$350          2) Underdogs moneyline: -$1,505
3) Favorites -1.5 goals: -$350                               3) Underdogs +1.5 goals: -$859
 
My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 24:            Overall Best Teams To Bet On:
(over/under/hedges not included)                         ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
 
1) Boston Bruins: +$416                                       1) Detroit Red Wings: +$1,385
2) Detroit Red Wings: +$400                                2) San Jose Sharks: +$1,042
3) Florida Panthers: +$238                                    3) Tampa Bay Lightning: +$916
 
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week 24
(over/under/hedges not included)
 
1) Carolina Hurricanes, -$475
2) Anaheim Ducks, -$300
3) Vancouver Canucks, -$300
 
My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week 24:     Overall Best Teams To Bet Against:
(over/under/hedges not included)                         ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
 
1) Washington Capitals, +$551                             1) Toronto Maple Leafs: +$738
2) Montreal Canadiens, +$264                              2) Washington Capitals: +$527
3) Boston Bruins, +$235                                       3) Chicago Blackhawks: +$511
 
My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week 24:
(over/under/hedges not included)
 
1) San Jose Sharks, -$400
2) Detroit Red Wings, -$389
3) Edmonton Oilers, -$300
 
Market’s Best Over/Under Bets In Week 24:  
($100 wagers)
 
1) St. Louis overs, +$373
2) Carolina unders, +$373
3) LA unders, +$369
 

Team By Team Power Rankings

These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Power Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.