2022/23 NHL Week 25 Betting Report

Welcome to my Week 25 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every single game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. If you followed my weekly reports last season, one upgrade is that I’m now logging alt pucklines for every game, favorites +1.5 goals and underdogs -1.5 goals. Click here to see my Week 24 Betting Report.
 
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My Weekly Profit: $2,177
My Season Profit: $20,049
 
The 2022/23 NHL regular season will soon be logged into the history books, with only a few days remaining in the schedule as the hockey world’s attention shifts to the Stanley Cup. This was among my best weeks of the entire season, but it didn’t start out that way, losing nearly -$500 Monday to Wednesday. What gave me the biggest boost was pressing my foot down firmly on the gas pedal betting favorites -1.5 goals. It’s no coincidence that this was the most profitable week of the season to be betting those fave pucklines. If you bet $100 on every favorite -1.5 goals, you banked an impressive $1,586 (versus $1,080 on the moneyline, driven largely by home teams).
 
A significant share of those fave -1.5 profits came from the teams who were most heavily favored (by at least -200 ML). That’s where most of my profit was generated. If you bet $100 on all of those moneylines and pucklines, you made twice as much -1.5 goals. The rate of return was much better. Generally when I’m betting pucklines, I’ll also have money riding on the moneyline. That’s probably more for psychological reasons than financial/mathematical necessity. I like winning something when the team I picked to win is actually victorious. Technically, it’s probably better to have everything on the most profitable outcome instead of hedging.
 
My desire to secure a prize when my team wins the game is also why “win in regulation” isn’t even an option in my betting spreadsheet. I prefer betting winners, but might want to consider adding “win in regulation” lines to my tracking next season just to analyze profitability. It’s more work, but Matt Murley loves picking the “3-way”, so it might be worth investigating. I’m also considering adding +2.5 and -2.5 to my tracking, though my level of risk aversion is too high to develop a desire to bet -2.5 often. If underdogs -1.5 was catastrophically bad, I can’t imagine -2.5 is much better.
 
The simplest explanation as to why favorites were so dominant is because Anaheim, Arizona, Chicago, Columbus, San Jose, Montreal, Philadelphia, and Washington combined for 3 wins in 24 GP (with 2 of those wins coming against each other). Of all my profit this week, $3,558 of it came from betting those teams to lose. On the flip side, my best investments among favorites were Seattle, Toronto, and Florida (who won a combined 9 of 10 games). This was my best week of the entire season betting the Florida Panthers to win, nearly doubling second place (which was last week). They have won 6 of their last 7 games and have made a serious run at the wild-card.
 
A few days ago we entered the period where last season in the dying days underdogs suddenly became very profitable due to load management. I have anticipated this opportunity for the last few weeks, but have not started aggressively betting underdogs because favorites haven’t lost any steam. There is only 4 days left in the schedule, so if it hasn’t started yet, we’re running out of runway. That doesn’t mean there won’t be mass benching in the next few days, so be sure to keep your guard up. You don’t want to be heavily invested in a team only to find later out they’re resting their whole first line.
 
Maybe a key difference between the current season and last is there was not the same level of tanking. Bedard is a bigger target than Wright. We did see Anaheim (who had lost 10 straight) nearly slay the mighty Avalanche (who had won 8 of their last 10) in the last game of the week Sunday night, so maybe that’s the canary in the coal mine? It’s also worth noting, 3 of the division titles and 3 wildcards are up for grabs, so several playoff teams are still going full throttle trying to win in the dying days of the regular season. The only teams locked into their positions are Boston, Toronto, and Tampa.
 
This will be my final betting report of the regular season. On Sunday I’ll be posting a First Round Preview with all my picks for each series, providing some historical stats for the different seeding match-ups. It will focus more on the history rather than the two teams involved in each series, given how many seeds may go undecided into the final day. I may not have much time between the end of the regular season and puck drop round one to run a detailed analysis.
 
 

My Week 25 Results

 
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
 

Last week I declared that the March scoring boom had come to an end, and I did not come to regret that declaration. There was a slight rebound in scoring from 6.09 to 6.29. Unders went 25-22-2 and betting $100 on each would have yielded $192 profit. My algorithm was a net loser, as it had trouble forgetting about all those goals that were scored 2-3 weeks ago, recommending too many overs. It will be reduced to advisory role in the playoffs, as I’m in the process of building a new over/under model based on past playoff series. The algorithm was never tested on playoff data, and my previous model did not perform well in the previous playoffs (round one overs notwithstanding). The post-season is a different animal.
 
The new algorithm that I deployed after the All-star break has posted disappointing results in the fourth quarter, so I’m considering some changes for next season. My performance was better when looking at game logs, consulting multiple different algorithms, and making a choice rather than blindly following any one specific equation. I’ll employ multiple different formulas, and track all of their performances week-to-week over the full season, but ultimately leave the final decision to my own judgement rather than leaning too heavily on any individual method. End of season is a good time to look ahead.
 
Speaking of structural changes, it’s hard to decide whether or not recording all these alt pucklines (dogs -1.5 and faves +1.5) has been worth my time. As categories, neither has been noticeably fruitful, but it has provided some interesting insight at the team level. Dogs -1.5 had a few good weeks in late October, but otherwise have been a trainwreck. It’s by far the worst category I’ve tracked this season. Perhaps that’s an indication that I should be dedicating more time to the best angles on favorites +1.5 goals. Intuitively it feels like the margin of error for that category would be low, given how often you’d need to be right in order to pay for each mistake.
 
 
My Team of the Week: Washington Capitals, +$790
 
Betting the Washington Capitals to lose has been one of my best wagers of the season’s second half, and the gravy train keeps on rolling. They lost both their games this week to Florida and Montreal, and I was on the right side of each. You may recall my Tweet expressing confusion why the Caps were favored so strongly against Montreal when they had lost 8 of 10, so hopefully you joined me picking the Habs. Looking at my game notes from Washington matches, there’s a lot of “WTF” type of banter. I don’t understand these lines, and haven’t for a while. Is the public still betting them to win? Are they disproportionately favored in expected goals models like Calgary? I don’t get it.
 
The San Jose Sharks have been sitting atop my profitability rankings for 12 consecutive weeks, and after a brief hiccup last week when they spontaneously went 3-0, were back on the losing track. My faith was never shaken and my foot never eased off the gas pedal. Well, maybe my confidence was shaken a little, but their opponents were Edmonton and Colorado twice, so I was not tempted by the dark side. Sharks did cover the puckline +1.5 in their first Avs game, but lost 12-3 in the other two games. Though Sharks +245 vs the Jets today was too tempting for me to pass. I’m still lacking confidence in Winnipeg.
 
 
My Worst Team of the Week: Vegas Golden Knights, -$809
 
The Vegas Golden Knights played 4 games this week, going 2-2, with me going 0-4. Twice I bet them to win (vs Nashville and Dallas), and twice I bet them to lose (vs LA and Minnesota). None of it worked. They were simultaneously among my top 3 worst teams to bet on and against. The Knights have been near the bottom of my Power Rankings for most of the season, as I’ve struggled to get a handle on this team. Their overs went on an 8-1 run before their unders went 3-2. I lost -$200 on their over/under this week, but did post $500 profit in their previous 7 games, so the bigger picture isn’t all doom gloom.
 
There was a tie between Dallas and Los Angeles for my second worst team of the week, which isn’t a big surprise considering their games against Vegas. The Stars went 3-0 and I bet their opponents in all 3, but only because their lines have been taxed lately. It’s not a team that I dislike, but my line value algorithms are telling me they’re too expensive. My problem with the Kings was too much faith as they went 0-3 but I bet them to win each match, including a blowout loss to Dallas (shocker). Given that this was one of my best weeks of the season, it makes sense my worst teams all had games against each other.
 
 
My 3 Best Market Bets of Week 25:                  Overall Best Market Bets of Week 25:
 
1) Favorites -1.5 goals: +$2,486                            1) Favorites -1.5 goals: +$1,586
2) Favorites moneyline: +$935                              2) Favorites moneyline: +$1,080
3) Home moneyline: +$911                                    3) Favorites +1.5 goals: +$517
 
My 3 Worst Market Bets of Week 25:              Overall Worst Market Bets of Week 25:
 
1) Road underdogs moneyline: -$1,200               1) Underdogs -1.5 goals: -$3,160
2) Overs: -$498                                                     2) Underdogs moneyline: -$2,310
3) Longshots moneyline: -$300                            3) Underdogs +1.5 goals: -$1,583
 
My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 25:             Overall Best Teams To Bet On:
(over/under/hedges not included)                         ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
 
1) Seattle Kraken: +$782                                       1) Seattle Kraken: +$668
2) Florida Panthers: +$567                                    2) Edmonton Oilers: +$567
3) Toronto Maple Leafs: +$486                             3) New York Islanders: +$483
 
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week 25
(over/under/hedges not included)
 
1) Carolina Hurricanes, -$450
2) Vegas Golden Knights, -$350
3) Los Angeles Kings, -$300
 
My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week 25:     Overall Best Teams To Bet Against:
(over/under/hedges not included)                          ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
 
1) Columbus Blue Jackets, +$855                         1) Tampa Bay Lightning: +$1,128
2) Washington Capitals, +$707                              2) Washington Capitals: +$767
3) San Jose Sharks, +$559                                     3) Philadelphia Flyers: +$735
 
My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week 25:
(over/under/hedges not included)
 
1) Nashville Predators, -$500
2) Dallas Stars, -$300
3) Vegas Golden Knights, -$250
 
Market’s Best Over/Under Bets In Week 25:  
($100 wagers)
 
1) Colorado overs, +$349
2) Pittsburgh unders, +$288
3) Nashville unders, +$287
 

Team By Team Power Rankings

These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Power Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.