Playoffs have finally arrived, which means it’s time
for my round one betting preview. For this exercise, I’ll be reviewing past
playoffs and generating some probabilities/results for each match-up. This will
also contain my picks on series winner for the 2023 match-ups, but that also
doesn’t mean I’ll be picking that team to win every game. While each series
unfolds, I’ll be checking past series for scenario specific probabilities;
example, when the bottom seed returns home down 0-2, what’s the most likely
result? My initial opinions will surely evolve as each series unfolds.
I nearly forgot my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it should
be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers
in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a
winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete
dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light
on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every
outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit
vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.
If you’re looking for a big picture commentary of
hockey betting (covering October 2019 to May 2022), you should check out my latest
book; breaking it down by team, by category, by strategy, by
season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels.
It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed.
Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the
pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons
are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit
the Amazon store.
To help paint a picture of what’s about to happen, I
downloaded standings and game logs for 2014 to 2022, excluding 2020 because the
covid bubble data has very little use here. None of the data feeding this
analysis will include anything other than the opening round of the playoffs.
We’ll get to the round two data in my second round preview. My database
includes game-by-game betting lines/results from the last 3 playoffs, but 2020
is once again completely excluded, so any reference to betting results is exclusive
to 2021 and 2022, while winning percentages will date back to 2014.
The divisional alignment in 2021 with a
compressed-reduced regular season does mess up the seeding, but at least there
were fans at home games (with varying amounts based on regional restrictions). Do
note that in order to use the betting data from 2021 (which had a unique
divisional format), North-West became one conference with the other being
East-South. There was no wildcard #1 or #2. But I also did not want to exclude
that data from my seeding match-up sections below, so a compromise was reached.
The data isn’t “pure” but more is better than less.
This playoffs I’ll be logging a wager for every single
series, which will allow me to compare and contrast my rate of return per $1
when betting on series versus individual games. In the seed match-up sections
below, I did actually calculate the rate of return of betting a team to win the
series versus betting them to win every game in a series in the last 2 playoffs.
My initial thoughts while assembling series lines from past seasons was that
I’d much rather bet the individual games, especially for favorites. But after
actually calculating the return on $1 for betting the series versus betting the
eventual winner to win every game, my opinion began to shift.
Not only will I be betting a winner for every series,
I’ll record a second wager on that team to win in the correct number of games.
I won’t be going so far as recording the line on each permutation, but I’ll
snap a few screen shots of the different prop bets and save them in a special
folder for future use. Though I’m pessimistic that will uncover any form of
systematic bias that can be exploited. Oddsmakers employ teams of people (and probably artificial intelligence), many
of whom are smarter than me, and they see where all the public money is laid.
That’s why the best value is often angles that bet against public bias.
The other option is to just bet teams you like to win
the Stanley Cup. I have been recording championship odds every month since
September, and the most movement from then to April 1st was far and
away the Boston Bruins, who went from +2800 to +375, for a 17.6% increase in
implied probability. The next biggest risers were New Jersey (+6.8%), Dallas
(+4.7%), and Vegas (+2.4%). At the other end of the spectrum, the Florida
Panthers dropped by 8.5% (from +900 to +6600), with Colorado dropping 5.7%,
Pittsburgh -3.9%, and Calgary -3.6%.
In addition to tracking Stanley Cup odds, I also
recorded betting lines on qualifying for playoffs (or missing) at several key
junctures, which is the beginning stages of my data set for future prop
analysis. More data is needed. I made my first attempt at recording several
team prop bets in September, but my results picking team over/unders was not
good. I did not build a model to attempt predicting how many points each team
would attain, but rather took the NHL.com team point projections, compared them
to last season’s points, then made judgement calls.
My judgement was bad on the whole, but my two smartest
picks were Jets +180 to make the playoffs, and Nashville +170 to miss. But only
a few points separated those teams in the wildcard race, so if a few pucks
bounced differently, I would have whiffed on both bets. I might look foolish
for betting the Boston total points under, but at least that’s better than
picking them to miss the playoffs on the world’s most popular hockey podcast.
At least recording all the prop numbers will give me the data necessary to test
the profitability of whatever new model I happen to construct.
Simply ranking the best bets from the last 2 playoffs
in round one regardless of seeding:
1) Home favorite -1.5 goals in game four
2) Home favorite -1.5 goals in game two
3) Overs in game three
4) Road moneyline in game one
5) Home favorite -1.5 goals in game six
Other than the first game of a series, it was
generally a losing proposition to be betting road teams at all (losing a
combined -$1,203 on $100 wagers). They did turn a small profit in games 1, 3, 5,
though I’m not sure what’s driving that, except that the high seed at home
tends to get taxed in games one and five. Game three is the first for the low
seed at home, which would make some intuitive sense if that draws disproportionate
investment from the public. My own bets for game one of each 2023 series are
based more on the lines for each individual game, focusing more on value than
who I actually expect to win.
Of all the round one categories, none produced a
higher betting profit in 2021 & 2022 than home favorites -1.5 goals (note
that I was not recording underdogs -1.5 goals during those two playoffs).
Looking back at my First Round Betting Report last season, the dominant theme was
favorites -1.5 goals (with home teams favored in more than 70% of games). When
the conference winner plays a wildcard, home favorite -1.5 goals in games 1
& 2 yielded a nice return in the last two playoffs. Though I’m a little
nervous about taking Vegas -1.5 goals vs Hellebuyck, who should steal a game or
two.
In the first round of the last 2 playoffs, betting
$100 on every home favorite -1.5 goals, you banked $1,771; whereas the same
wager on home fave moneyline only yielded $360. In 2022, my mistake in the
first week was going too heavy on road underdogs +1.5 goals, which was a
successful strategy for me in the second round of 2021 (thanks almost entirely
to the Canadiens and Islanders). In the absence of those Cinderella teams
propelled by elite goal prevention, the category collapsed. My performance in
the second half of round one in 2022 improved substantially after embracing
favorite pucklines.
Perhaps the lesson there was if an underdog upsets a
higher seed on the back of outstanding goaltending or suffocating defense,
they’re a good bet +1.5 goals in the following rounds. Early in my hockey
betting punditry, I was an advocate for betting dogs +1.5 because they had a
higher rate of return than favorites moneyline or puckline, but that mostly
fell apart in 2021/22. My total investment in that category has declined
significantly over time, and is generally only a bet I’m willing to take when
there is plus money offered.
Over/Under
My over/under algorithm from the regular season was
not tested to playoff data, and is being reduced to an advisory role for the
playoffs (though I did agree with many of its recommendations for game ones). Instead, I’ll be experimenting with some different models to estimate
total goals for each game of a round one series based on the regular season average
goals (for + against) of the teams involved. I’m planning to use multiple
different models to predict totals for each additional game based on past
seasons, but I don’t have enough historical over/under betting lines in my
database to properly construct and test a “rate of return” type model.
Rather than use a “profitability algorithm”, I’ll be
more focused on actually predicting how many goals will be scored in each game.
2021/22 was my first season tracking over/under, so all my data in this demographic
is from just one playoffs. The good news is, last season has the highest
correlation to the current one, so there should be some usefulness in these
conclusions, but I’m not making any promises. The sample size is small and
offensive/defensive systems are constantly evolving. At some point in the
future I’ll build a separate model for playoff over/under betting, but need at
least 1 more playoffs worth of data.
In the meantime, I do have scoring data dating back to
2014 to provide some insight on patterns. Overs were my own best bet in round
one last season, but that followed a campaign in which goal scoring boomed
above expected with a fantastic second half before oddsmaker models fully
adjusted to what was happening. This has me wondering whether or not I should
be using playoff data from 2014 to 2019 in my over/under modelling, if scoring
is significantly higher than the outdated data, it will end up recommending too
many unders (which already happened using only 2023 data for my algorithm).
In 2022, unders were a net loser in games one through
six, but a smart bet in game sevens. Games three and six were the two highest
scoring and generated the highest rates of return for overs on equal sized wagers. Unders
were the second worst category last season behind underdogs +1.5 goals. There
was a decrease in goals per game from the last month of the season to the first
round of the playoffs, from 6.6 to 6.4, but the average betting total was
nearly identical (6.16). In the last month of this season, average goals per
game was 6.46 while the average total was 6.33.
We can probably expect a slight decrease in scoring
round one, but that happened last year and it did not provide a significant
boost to unders as a whole, at least in the first round. In games one and two
of the first round in 2022, overs were 8-8 with an even split, but were 7-1 in
game 3. Overs went 15-6 in games 4 to 6, while unders were 4-1 in game sevenss. One
of the Matt Murley betting rules is “always take the under in game seven”,
which I can confirm was a winning wager in 2022. Though I was not aware of that
at the time and was blindly following my algorithm recommendations.
Evidently sportsbooks were aware and set the total
lower to compensate, which my simple method saw as too low, expecting the game
to go comfortably over. What concerns me is that Murley has a big following, so
unders in game sevens are going to be heavily taxed. They turned a profit last
playoffs because the tax wasn’t big enough, but that doesn’t guarantee there
will be any value on game seven unders in 2023. I’ll have to look at the line
offering when it happens, and make a judgement call with the information that’s
available at that time.
For the 8 game ones in the first round of 2023, my
algorithm disproportionately recommended unders. I’m not sure what’s going on
there, but it seems to suggest that oddsmakers set the lines slightly above
what they should have been based on recent performance. Although the disparity
could be the result of my deleting games involving the worst 8 teams in the
league from the sample, and that those were the higher scoring matches that
would have pushed me towards overs instead of unders. We’ll see how many of
those games actually go under, because if it’s a lot, then my methodology was
better than theirs.
Zig Zag
If you do a Google search for “playoff betting
strategies” one of the first concepts you’ll find is “zig zagging”. I’m not
sure who coined the term, but it refers to betting on the team who lost the
previous game on the basis of historical observations that losers have a higher
probability of winning the next match. That’s why you’ll see a team listed at
-200 for game one, lose, then get listed as a bigger favorite in game two. I’m not sure precisely what science is behind that phenomenon, but it
seems to be tied to motivation/desperation.
If you win, you’re more comfortable the next night,
whereas if you fall behind, there’s more anxiety/adrenaline. There is more
pressure to win, and while some teams can (and do) fold under those conditions,
others increase their effort. If it’s
true that losers get pumped up and winners get complacent; how much money would
you have made if you bet $100 moneyline on every loser to beat every winner in the
regular season? From October 2019 to May 2022, you would have lost -$10,971. If you bet $100 on every puckline too, then
you lost an additional -$12,428.
Okay, so simply being a normal loser doesn’t make you
better. In the regular season, zig zag betting is really only effective when
it’s a good team that’s avenging a defeat. Losers can have a losing culture, where
players are less likely to give a full effort. That’s why it tends to be more
of a playoff specific strategy, because all the teams are at least “good” (in theory). The
major problem with zig zag betting in the playoffs is that it’s too popular.
Too many people have published blog posts encouraging the public to do this, so
when a team loses, sportsbooks receive a lot of bets on the loser to win the
next game.
They’re fully aware of what’s going on and simply
charge higher prices. In the first round of the last 2 playoffs, if you bet
$100 on every zig zag opportunity, you lost -$747.
Granted, -$857 of that lost money was from road
teams. When a home team lost the previous game, they win 54% and produced
positive profit on the moneyline. Losers did not fare well next game when it
was on the road (winning only 44%), but did get a big boost from their home
fans. Productive as home zags were, it was even better for the higher seed, or when
the two teams are evenly matched (like the divisional #2 vs #3 match-ups).
When a home team loses game three (as the lower seed),
betting them to win game 4 is not effective in the first round. But when a
higher seed loses game one, they’ll win game two 63% of the time. High seed
home teams who lost the previous game is easily the most profitable zig zag
strategy from the last two playoffs. One interesting observation, when a high
seed wins game four as visitors and returns home with a 3-1 series lead, the
low seed will win 57% on the road in game five. Betting $100 in all those cases
in the last two playoffs (regardless of round) produced $700 of profit.
The biggest problem with zig zag betting when there is
a round one mismatch, is that the strategy is pretty much a guaranteed loser in
a 4 or 5 game series because obviously the loser wasn’t winning after losses,
or it would have lasted longer. Obviously when Colorado swept Nashville last
season, you would have lost every single zig zag wager (at least moneyline). We’ll delve more into
zig zag results in the seeding match-up sections below. If you’re interested in
reading more about “betting teams after losses”, I published a blog post about
it earlier in the season, click here to read.
ROUND 1: Conference Winner vs
Wildcard
Since 2014 (and excluding 2020), the Conference winner
(henceforth referred to as C1) has eliminated the lower seed in 78% of series,
with zero of them extending 7 games (I actually had to double check that wasn’t
a data entry error on my part), which would warrant a series line of -466. The
most famous upset came when Columbus upset Tampa (a -340 favorite), but
Lightning fans surely don’t lose any sleep over that one after winning the next
two Stanley Cups. My own performance betting the #1 seed in round one last
season was bad.
The series lines were Colorado -700 and Florida -376,
and the top seed advanced in both. In the last two playoffs, you would have
generated a 26% rate of return on equal sized wagers betting the C1 to win the
series, versus a 17% return betting them to win every single game. Though it
should be noted that nearly all that profit would be washed away if we included
the 2019 playoffs in the sample when Columbus slayed Tampa. If you bet $100 on
every Avs-Panthers moneyline, you only walked away with $140 of profit (nearly
all of that coming from Colorado).
The Avs were -310 and -360 favorites for the first two
games at home last season, and I took Nashville +1.5 goals in game one before
finding out that Juuse Saros would not be playing. The Avs blew them out, so I
flipped my pick in game two to Colorado -1.5 goals. Then Connor Ingram delivered
a miraculous 49-save performance, which the Avs won in overtime. Ingram
inspired me to revert back to my original Nashville +1.5 goals wager for game three,
which unraveled into another Colorado blowout. The Avs swept the series, and I
was able to dig myself out of that hole by winning $444 on the last game.
My results from the Florida-Washington series was
easily the worse of the two. The Capitals gave the Panthers problems, getting
out to a 2-1 series lead, before eventually losing in 6 games. Washington was a
+170 underdog in game one, getting a split in Florida, yet were still +160 dogs
when they returned home for game three. The series was a perfect zig zag for
games 2, 3, and 4, but the Panthers won the last 3 games to close them out..
The Panthers were heavily favored in all 6 games, and covered -1.5 goals only
twice.
These are the worst series to deploy the zig zag
strategy, losing -$662 in the last 2 playoffs on
$100 wagers. To put it simply, there are no successful zig zags in a sweep
(which roughly 1/3 of these series are 4-0), and zags are automatically 1-3 in
a series that’s wrapped in 5 games. On average the high seed wins 65% of the individual
games, so in the cases where they do lose, that’s when there’s an outstanding
zig zag opportunity. Granted, the Lightning went 0-3 on their zags in 2019, but
otherwise you can expect expensive line prices on the favorites for the game
following upsets. Your book will charge a tax for the privilege, lowering the
expected return.
The first match-up to get locked in was Boston vs
Florida, with the Bruins opening as a -320 favorite with a 76% implied
probability. That number makes me nervous given how hot the Panthers were for
the last few weeks, and seeing them as a +240 dog was tempting. However, the
potential disparity in goal was the difference maker, having not developed any
trust in Alex Lyon. Bruins are my official pick to win the series, but I’ll
probably end up betting home team throughout. Bruins to win in 6 games is +380,
and that’s when I’m expecting they’ll wrap this up.
The race for the 2023 Western Conference top seed was
still undecided with two days left in the season, but it was clinched by Las
Vegas in their final game with a victory against Seattle. That put them on
a collision course with their old rival, the Winnipeg Jets. The Golden
Knights opened as -170 favorites and that’s my pick. Granted, Connor Hellebuyck
versus Laurent Brossoit doesn’t boost my confidence in Vegas, and it’s not hard
to see a path where Jets win in an upset. But Vegas swept the season series and
has been a much better team for the last month of the season.
There should be at least a few games stolen by
Hellebuyck, so I’m picking Vegas to win in 7 games at +400, which is the most
likely outcome by betting odds. My algorithm also really liked the under for
game one, but that was true in 6 of 8 series. My bet in game one will be under
6 goals for both series. My trust in Brossoit and Lyon might be limited, but
both have been playing well lately, so it would be prudent to wait for actual
deterioration before betting on it. I have more confidence in Logan Thompson
who could see some action in the Vegas goal, but he also hasn’t played much in
the second half.
ROUND 1: 2nd Division Winner vs Wildcard
Considering how dominant the conference winners are
against the last wildcard, you might expect similar (but lesser) dominance from
the #2 seed (henceforth referred to as C2), but these are shockingly close. The
wildcard actually won 56% of these series in my sample (where 14 of 16 went to
at least game six). While they might technically be the #2 seed for wildcard
purposes, that doesn’t mean they’re the second best team in the conference.
Often enough, second place in the best division is better than first place in
the other division.
Profitable as the top wildcards were to wager, you
could have made a higher return betting them to win the series before the puck
was dropped. Both Carolina and Calgary did win last season, but both Pittsburgh
and Toronto lost the year previous. If you were someone who actually bet
Montreal +245 to beat Toronto or the Islanders +118, congratulations. I did
eventually jump enthusiastically aboard both of those bandwagons in the 2021 second
round, but had not boarded when the round one series started. They’re also the reason
that longshots of +200 or higher performed very well.
Those series are why I took a significant loss on the
C2 vs WC1 in 2021. Both upsets were engineered by outstanding goal prevention,
so that might be the secret sauce behind upsets in these scenarios. They were
the reason you generated a far better return betting the low seed in 2021 and
2022. Betting them on the series line would have produced a 40% return, while
betting the low seed moneyline every game yielded a 20% return. This year Seattle
is +210 to beat Colorado, and the Islanders are +160 to upset Carolina. I’m
picking the favorites in both those series, but do feel somewhat nervous about
the upset potential (more so for NYI).
In the last 2 playoffs, you made a slightly higher
profit betting the lower seed in game one and the higher seed in games two and
three. The best bet was easily home team in game six (the lower seed), as
betting $100 on each yielded $481 of profit in 4 series. Zig zagging did
produce a net gain, but not high seed road zags. When C2 is the visitor after
losing the previous match, they were not a good wager, notably game three after
losing game two, and game six after losing game five on home ice. Home
moneyline in general was a strong pick, whether favorite or underdog.
Unlike the C1 vs WC2 match, my performance betting C2
was very strong in 2022. The home team won every game in the Boston-Carolina
series and covered -1.5 goals in 6 of 7. Once I figured this out, the series
became much more profitable. The Hurricanes emerged victorious having earned
the higher seed with their overs going 5-1-1. Conversely The Dallas Stars
jumped out to an early 2-1 lead on the heavily favored Flames thanks to
outstanding goaltending by Jake Oettinger. The Stars covered +1.5 goals in all
3 games, a bet that I was on early because the Flames lines were uncomfortably
expensive. Calgary was a -330 favorite to win the series, but it took 7 games
and overtime to seal the deal.
2023
The Carolina Hurricanes stumbled near the end
of the schedule, struggling mightily to score goals after the Svechnikov injury,
nearly losing the division to New Jersey. Instead of facing the Rangers, they’ll
get to face the Islanders. The Canes opened as -190 favorites having won the
season series 3-1, which will be my pick as well, also taking them +400 to win
it in 7 games. Carolina is -155 on the moneyline game one which will be my
wager, along with under 5.5 goals (this should be a fantastic series for
unders). My strategy is to invest in home favorites -1.5 goals more often, but the
Isles have been a good bet +1.5 goals in some past playoffs, and Ilya Sorokin
makes me nervous.
The Colorado Avalanche won their division by
winning the last game of the season, drawing the Seattle Kraken instead of
Minnesota. The Avs are a -260 favorite on the series line. That price feels a
little expensive given they only finished 9 PTS ahead of the Kraken, but I’m
going to be picking Colorado, both in game one and on the series line (plus +380 to win in 6 games). The
goaltending is a big problem for Seattle, who did beat the Avs in 2 of 3 games
this season (their loss was by one goal), but I’m not going to put too much
weight on that given Colorado’s injury situation. Though I was tempted by
Seattle as a +155 underdog in game one. They were a great road team this year. I’ll
be betting over 6 goals in game one.
ROUND 1: Division #2 vs Division #3
Of all the first round series in the last two
playoffs, the seeding that gave me the biggest problem was the #2 vs #3 in each
division, losing -$1,835 across all categories,
posting big losses on both favorites and underdogs, road and home, everything.
There is only a single category where I produced a profit, and that was overs.
Favorites -1.5 goals was once again the best wager, whether that was the lower
or higher seed. In 2021 and 2022, favorites won 27 games, 21 of them by at
least 2 goals. The low seed was favored in 50% of their home games, and was a
great bet -1.5 goals in those cases.
In the last 8 divisional series match-ups, the lower
seed who starts on the road was easily the best option to bet. There was a
slightly higher return if you bet the low seed to win the series versus winning
all their individual games. If you bet $100 on every lower seed moneyline every
game in those 8 series, you banked more than $1,000 ($461 at home and $608 on
the road). Sadly for me, I was a big net loser whether betting high or low seed
moneylines in the sum of their games, but would not have fared much better
betting series outcomes.
The lower seed won game one on the road in 56% of
opportunities, with the high seed winning game two 56% of the time. That’s a
big reason why the best zig zag opportunity in these match-ups was game two,
regardless of whether the high or low seed won the first. When the high seed loses game three on the road,
they were profitable in game four. But when the low seed loses game four, they’re
a strong bet in game five on the road. These are likely to be the series that I’m
most aggressively zig zagging, given that these theoretically have the smallest
talent gap between opponents (though that didn’t help underdogs +1.5 goals).
Another thing about D2 vs D3 is that overs were 18-9
in 2022 and betting $100 on each yielded $725 with most of the profit coming in
games two through five. The divisional matches produced by far the highest
return on overs last season, going 12-2 in the Tampa-Toronto and NYR-Pittsburgh
series. They went 7-0 in the latter, which makes sense given that the Penguins
were rolling out Louis Domingue for most of it. Dating back to 2014, the
average goals per game in these was 5.7, which isn’t particularly higher than
the other seedings. Pens-Rangers may just be gaslighting the results.
My own results betting D2 vs D3 the last 2 playoffs on
the moneyline was bad, with the exception of Rangers vs Penguins in 2022.
Pittsburgh managed to take a 3-1 series lead despite losing both their goalies
to injury by game two and were forced to roll out Louis Domingue. The Rangers
charged back and won the series, which was very profitable to me, having bet big
on New York after the goalie injuries. Sidney Crosby was also banged up, only
strengthening my resolve. Being able to exploit those goalie injuries presented
a unique opportunity that doesn’t happen often.
The St. Louis Blues defeated the Minnesota Wild in 6
games, and I struggled with this series before cashing a big ticket on the
final game. It was tied 2-2 after 4 games despite none of them being
particularly close; with home teams going 3-3, overs going 3-3 and zig zags going
2-3. There wasn’t a specific strategy that would have been effective in this
series, unless that strategy was St. Louis to win. I also got destroyed betting
Edmonton vs Los Angeles, which was tied 2-2 after 4 games where the Oilers
outscored the Kings 17-10. The Kings took a 3-2 series lead on the Oilers, but
could not secure a ticket to round two.
2023
The first series to get locked in was Toronto vs
Tampa, with the Leafs earning home ice. My first series wager was Leafs
-140 (Tampa was +120), due primarily to my lack of confidence in the Lightning,
who struggled in the 4th quarter. But that also doesn’t mean that
I’ll bet Toronto to win every game. Last season when
these two teams met, it followed a nearly perfect zig zag. I’m going to be zig
zagging the D2 vs D3 match-ups more often, and I’ll be able to compare and
contrast how that worked out versus just betting one team to win the series.
Leafs to win in 7 is +425.
Zig zagging was serving me well in last season’s
Leafs-Lightning showdown until the Leafs blew game seven. I made a bigger bet
than anyone should make on Andrei Vasilevskiy to lose an elimination game, in
large part because I’m a Leafs hater and wanted to simultaneously reverse jinx
and purchase sadness insurance. Even had Leaf Nation celebrated their first
series victory in decades, I’d at least be able to claim a personal victory
having picked them to win. I’d like to think last season's loss was all my fault, since
the Leafs are unquestionably worse when I bet them to win (and I’ve got
empirical evidence to prove it).
The second divisional match-up decided was the Devils
vs Rangers, with New Jersey opening as a -120 favorite. My ass has been
firmly planted on the Devils bandwagon since late October, so it pains me to
pick the Rangers to emerge victorious, but Igor Shesterkin is the x-factor. Add
Kane-Panarin-Zibanejad-Tarasenko-Fox, and it’s probably too much for a young
Devils team without much playoff experience. We’ll see, I’m not committing to
betting Rangers in every game, but they are my pick for game one. It’s +200 to
go 7 games, which is tempting. Rangers to win in 7 is +550. Also note, I’ve
been terrible at reading the Rangers this season, so there’s that…
The Edmonton Oilers opened as -220 favorites to
defeat the Los Angeles Kings, which feels a little too expensive given
how close the series was last season. I’m expecting and picking Edmonton to win,
but don’t think it will be a cakewalk. My pick for game one is LA moneyline
+145 along with under 6.5 goals. That was more a value play than an actual
expectation of upset. The price was nice (although it had moved to +155 by
Saturday morning, so the public didn’t agree with me). I’m logging the Oilers
-220 to win the series as my official pick for research purposes, but wouldn’t
lay real money at that price. If Kings do win game one, I’ll be going heavy on
Oilers -1.5 goals in game two. Oilers are +400 to win in 6, and +400 to win in 7. I’d almost bet both.
The last D2 vs D3 series is the Dallas Stars vs
Minnesota Wild. The Stars are -140, and I’m picking them to win in 7
games at +425. The Wild received strong goaltending in the second half of the
season, but my confidence in Jake Oettinger is greater than the Wild tandem.
One concern is that when you delete the worst teams and the first quarter from
the sample, Dallas only won 39% of their home games, which is where the series
will be starting. My official pick is Dallas to win in 7 games at +425, which
is the most likely outcome by betting lines. Stars-Wild is also one of my few
over bets for all the game ones, picking over 5.5, but I’m not fully confident
given this could be a goaltending duel.
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