2022/23 Second Round NHL Playoffs Betting Preview

The first round of the playoffs is in the rearview mirror, and my preparation for round two began on opening night of round one. The format for round two (henceforth referred to as R2 for you Star Wars fans out there) will be a little different than my Round One Preview, which focused on the seeding match-ups. Instead of looking at the history of conference winner vs wildcard etc, this one will have a more general scope discussing the broader categories and themes.
 
Before we go any further, it’s time for my *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors.
 
If you’re looking for a big picture commentary of hockey betting (covering October 2019 to May 2022), you should check out my book; breaking it down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.
 
The first round of the NHL playoffs is the most fun time of year to be a hockey fan (although for me it’s the first week of free agency), with half as many games to watch in each additional round. But fewer games to follow does free more time for data analysis, and I’ve been busy updating spreadsheets since the end of the regular season. Player stats have been fed into my “expected free agent value” algorithm, putting price tags on everyone’s accomplishments, or in some cases lack thereof. The countdown to free agency 2023 begins!
 
This year’s opening round featured some incredibly intense series, where the hatred between the two teams was palpable. It was enormously entertaining. Winnipeg and Vegas clearly hate each other, which is surely residual loathing from past playoff battles. Minnesota-Dallas, Toronto-Tampa also featured some intense animosity between opponents. Sadly, my spreadsheets do not include how many hits were thrown in a series, and how that might affect the performance of the victor in subsequent rounds. At this point every team is banged up.
 
Looking back at the last 2 playoffs, the second round has been far kinder to me than round one. My R2 rate of return was 4% in 2021 and 6% in 2022, which is decent but not outstanding. The team that did the most damage in both playoffs was the Colorado Avalanche, most especially in their loss to Vegas in 2021. Had you bet the Avs to win every game against St. Louis in 2022, you only walked away with $24 profit despite the series ending in 6 games (I was a net loser betting Avs to win in that series). I did turn a profit betting the other 3 series in 2022, my best being Carolina-New York.
 
The Islanders and Canadiens upset wins in 2021 were my big lottery tickets that allowed me to overcome the massive loss on the Vegas-Colorado series. As theorized in my round one report, when underdogs advance beyond round one on the back of elite goaltending, they might be a great pick in round two. That’s merely anecdotal speculation on my part, having not actually verified that a lower Goals Against Average for a low seed in round one leads to a higher probability of victory in round two. But I also have the data to verify.
 
*pause while I do a quick investigation*
 
Okay, there was not a statistically significant difference between round one G.A.A of low seeds who win their round two series verses those who lose. In fact, lower seeds that won in the second round had a 2.5 GAA in round one, while lower seeds who lost in R2 had an R1 GAA of 2.3. That pours cold water on my theory that you should be looking for elite goal prevention for your R2 upsets. There may have been past examples that worked for me, but that also means there were more that failed.
 

One interesting note about R2 game one, they are 50-50 home vs road dating back to 2014, and neither one side was profitable in the last 2 playoffs (the only moneymaker was unders last season). But when you get to game two, it was very profitable on the road moneyline. When the low seed returns home for games three and four (dating back to 2014), they win 56% and 59%, both profitable wagers in 2021 and 2022. From game two to seven, the lower seed was the more profitable on the moneyline in the last 2 playoffs.
 
In total the lower seed has won 51% of the games since 2014, and were very profitable to bet both at home and on the road, moneyline and puckline. Even in 2021 and 2022, underdogs thrived. In round two, there are no “dogs” who are bad teams. It’s not uncommon for a lucky upset to be followed by a collapse in the next round, but there’s also evidence of long-term success by lower seeds, so at the very least be careful how much faith you’re putting in favorites. Upsets are far more likely in round two than one (which is strange to say after some big upsets in 2023).
 
For a synposis of “zig zag betting” (betting the loser of the previous game) check out my Round One Preview. Looking forward at the best and worst R2 zig zagging scenarios, the best is when the low seed loses game one on the road, they’re a great bet in game two and when the higher seed loses game three on the road, they’re a terrible bet in game four. There’s not enough data in the last 2 playoffs to completely trust that’s how future series will unfold, but it’s something to keep in mind.
 
One of the dilemmas with finding winning angles, is that oddsmakers also employ very smart people (probably even A.I) to nerf every single profit vector. We’re not far from a future where all opening lines are a 100% accurate representation of probability (minus the “v.i.g”) and every bettor can generate identical returns by betting either side every game in the long-term. Oddsmakers generally want an even amount of money on both sides to ensure a profit, so imperfect lines can be a reaction to public bias.
 
Road moneyline was the big winner of round one, and in the previous 2 playoffs, those visitor moneylines did generate more revenue than home ML, so we’ll see if those two factors conspire to boost road warriors. Once again home moneyline was not a profitable wager, but home favorites -1.5 goals did perform very well in 2021 and 2022. However it was one of the worst categories of round one in 2023, so I won’t be jumping back on the bandwagon anytime soon. I’ll be sticking mostly to moneylines, likely gravitating towards underdogs, depending on which team is favored.
 
One strange observation, dating back to 2014, home teams won the critical game five 67.9% of the time, but they went 1-5 in the last 2 playoffs. That also means they went 18-4 from 2014 to 2019. So if you’re looking at the graphic above, you may see an opportunity with that G5 home win percentage, but if you scroll across further you’ll see it was a terrible bet in 2021 and 2022. I’m not sure what that means for 2023, but we’ll surely find out soon enough. Game five is critical because if you’re up 3-1, you clinch, and if it’s tied, you go up 3-2 with a 66% probability of winning the series.
 
 

My R2 Category Results for 2021 and 2022

 

Last season in round two, there was a sudden decrease in goal scoring (a 15-goal game in the Battle of Alberta notwithstanding), which took my over/under algorithm a few games to adapt. Overs were a great bet in round one, but unders established dominance in round two. For the first four R2 games in 2023, I’ve got the under in 3 of them (with the only over being in Florida vs Toronto). I did follow my algorithm’s advice in most instances in round one, leading to a net loss. I may find myself defaulting to unders in the next two weeks.
 
Underdog moneyline generated a decent profit in both 2021 and 2022, although nearly all the positivity came from the Islanders and Canadiens in 2021 and the Lightning and Oilers in 2022. Edmonton won their series 4-1 but was only favored once, while Tampa swept Florida and was only favored once. Road teams went 5-1 in the Colorado-St. Louis series and home teams went 6-1 in the Carolina-New York series. Each series had it’s own unique patterns, as there was no cookie cutter strategy that would have led to a profit in all four.
 
What really got me on board the Habs bandwagon in 2021 (defeating the Leafs notwithstanding) was when Mark Scheifele was suspended for the remainder of the Winnipeg-Montreal series after a hit at the end of game one. I started making very large wagers on the Habs for the remaining games. Exploiting an injury or suspension produced results for me, though it’s hard to quantify a precise rate of return. I didn’t start keeping “game notes” on each wager until 2021/22, so I can’t be entirely sure everything that drove my decisions in the 2021 playoffs.
 
In both of the last 2 playoffs, favorites moneyline was a net loser in round two, but home favorites -1.5 goals was a net winner. One of the biggest contributors to this in 2022 was the New York Rangers, taking them 7 games to knock out the Carolina Hurricanes, so their moneylines only went 4-3, but they covered -1.5 goals in all of their victories. Granted they were only favored in two of their victories, and I was not logging underdog pucklines -1.5 goals in that playoffs. Granted, I could pretty easily estimate what those returns would have been based on the standard offerings. Maybe that will be a summer project.
 
In 2021 it was Vegas and Tampa that generated nearly all the success for home faves -1.5 goals, so the category success was very situation specific. A broad generalization is not necessarily the optimal path. It’s not a bet I’ll be targeting or defaulting to, it will have to be instinctual each time. Besides, I’ll typically only hammer pucklines -1.5 when there is a big disparity between the teams, or one of them has a goalie who can’t make a save. There shouldn’t be any of that in round two. Unless Bobrovsky completely falls apart (which is entirely likely), I might start hitting the Leafs puckline.
 
In 2022, I generated a strong return from underdog moneyline (+$1,015), which had produced a -$24 loss in 2021, when I was making a much bigger investment in underdogs +1.5 goals. Underdog moneyline was the best category in 2021, just not the games that I was betting. It’s humbling when reporting losing money on the very best category. I’m not being tempted by underdogs on the series line, but starting my picks for the first game, my algorithms were steering me towards road teams (except Florida), including Edmonton who is actually a road favorite.
 
The one thing that I like about round two, is it does provide more playoff data to make decisions, versus the opening round when you’re not sure how certain teams will respond to playoff hockey. Now we know. From my perspective, the data is more useful from an over/under standpoint, as both teams succeeding in round one doesn’t necessarily provide more clarity about how those teams will perform against each other. Both sides did good. I’m more interested in the second half of the season home-road splits, excluding the 8 worst teams.
 
My first round review will be out in the next 24 hours, but this is where you’ll find my picks for the upcoming games. The biggest winner from round one was road moneyline, driven largely by underdogs (since home teams are far more likely to be favored, especially in the playoffs), but road faves also turned a profit. This was addressed in a recent episode of Chiclets where Matt Murley surmised that teams aren’t partying on the road anymore, where staying bunkered down in hotel rooms might partially nullify home ice advantage. We’ll see if road moneylines continue to flourish in round two.
 
My series picks below are all favorites, but not all of them are the high seed with home ice advantage. My loyalty will be dependent on the line value of any given game. Example: I’m picking Dallas to win the series, but Seattle to win game one because +140 was a nice number. The Panthers are +130 for game one vs Toronto, but my algorithms preferred the Leafs. I was expecting there to be a tax on the Leafs line given that they’re now the favorite to win the Stanley Cup, but Florida has been an analytics darling that have been attracting significant public money all season, even when struggling.
 
 
Dallas vs Seattle:
 
            Series bet: Dallas -190
            Exact bet: Dallas in 6 games +400
 
My series bet was decided before their opponent was official and the betting line released, but did need to wait for game seven Sea-Col before deciding how many games it would take Dallas to wrap this up. Seattle just dethroned the defending champion, and maybe it’s a mistake on my part to under-estimate them yet again. Phillip Grubauer certainly proved my skepticism wrong, but him vs Jake Oettinger feels like a substantial mismatch. Jake posted a .929 SV% against Minnesota, but Phil wasn’t too far behind at .926.
 
One potential problem with Dallas is they attract a lot of love, and have been sporting expensive line prices for a while now. Maybe Seattle deserves more respect for what they just accomplished, but I’m prepared to drink the Stars Kool-aid. It’s just too distressing to be on the opposite end of Oettinger, Heiskanen, Robertson, and Hintz. Depending on the line price, Seattle may solicit a few of my wagers as this series unfolds (like they have in game one), but on the series line, my faith is unwavering. Matt Murley at Chiclets Game Notes has been pumping Oettinger Conn Smythe, and the odds have dropped to +1200.
 
 
Vegas vs Edmonton:
 
            Series bet: Edmonton -150
            Exact bet: Edmonton in 7 games +475
 
The Vegas Golden Knights were the first team to wrap their round one series, dispatching the injury-depleted Winnipeg Jets in 5 games. They’ll be facing a much tougher opponent in the second round who is not currently missing half their line-up. The boys on Spittin Chiclets seemed to agree that the winner of the Kings-Oilers series could go all the way to the Stanley Cup final, and I’m inclined to agree with that assessment. Perhaps I should be more interested in the Knights line value, given that they are the division winner with home ice advantage.
 
Full disclosure, I’m cheering for Edmonton to win this series, so it’s hard to remove bias from my clarity of vision. With Colorado getting knocked out, Edmonton becomes the betting favorite to win the Western Conference. They have also been a very public team in the last month, with very expensive line prices. The Kings got no respect. Vegas isn’t getting much either, especially with home ice advantage. Evander Kane is nursing an injury, and I’m concern that he could also catch a case of the “Vegas flu”…not really. I think opponents in Vegas in the playoffs run a tight ship with little to no partying.
 
 
Carolina vs New York/New Jersey:
 
            Series bet: New Jersey -130
            Exact bet: New Jersey in 7 games +500
 
The Carolina Hurricanes were the first Eastern Conference team to punch their ticket to round two, and my decision was to bet their opponent to win in 7 games regardless of who won the Rangers-Devils series. They might have dispatched the Islanders in 6, but they came within an inch of getting pushed to game seven and are injury depleted up front. They did get to rest while New Jersey and New York battled to the seventh and deciding game, but I don’t think that will be enough time for either Teravainen, Svechnikov, or Paccioretty to heal (the last two for sure)
 
When I made the decision to bet the winner of Rangers-Devils, it seemed logical they’d be the underdog given that Carolina won the division and home ice advantage, where they are a really good team. I was shocked to see the Devils -130 to win the series, which did force some introspection if there was indeed now value on the Canes. But ultimately I decided to stick with my original plan, really hoping that Akira Schmid can keep this magic going. He now has the same Conn Smythe odds as Jake Oettinger at +1200.
 
 
Florida vs Toronto:
 
            Series bet: Toronto -165
            Exact bet: Toronto in 6 games +450
 
The Toronto Maple Leafs managed to wrap up their series with Tampa in 6 games, giving themselves a little breather before the start of R2, while Florida had to battle through game seven of a very physical series, but defeated a historically outstanding team. Toronto enters this series as a considerable favorite, and now ranked as the most likely team to win the Stanley Cup by betting odds. That may be completely overlooking the magnitude of Florida’s accomplishment, or maybe they’re expecting a TON of public money coming in on Toronto.
 
I’m picking the Leafs -165, but don’t like that price at all. Since the Leafs are my pick to win the Stanley Cup, I must stick to my convictions, even if that pick had reverse jinx undertones. If you’re betting them to win, know there’s probably a tax. This is the most jazzed up Leafs nation has been in decades, and it’s a big nation. Both of these teams have question marks in goal, and if you believe in momentum, there’s nothing more momentous that beating a recording breaking great team. Toronto is my pick, but I may occasionally bet Florida if I like the line value. There was none in game one.