Round one of the NHL playoffs is an exciting time to
be alive, as hockey fans were treated to exhilarating clashes between some
hated rivals while some new rivalries were born. The biggest news to emerge
from round one was the Toronto Maple Leafs winning their first playoff series
since the introduction of the salary cap, as the Tampa Bay Lightning dynasty is
fading into darkness. My opening week went reasonably well, mostly thanks to
underdogs and road moneyline, which obviously are quite often the same thing.
*DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting
with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is
to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game,
every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic
analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what
failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and
you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. Also, please
bet responsibly.
If you’re looking for a big picture commentary of
hockey betting (covering October 2019 to May 2022), you should check out my
book; breaking it down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is
plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers
pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons
learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic
have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are
discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.
My 1st Round Profit: $1,084
All my picks for each series were laid out in my Round One Preview before opening night, going 5-3 on the series line, and 1-7 picking
the winner in the correct number of games (though if the Rangers had won game seven,
2-6 would have been enough to turn a profit on $100 wagers). Had I bet $100 on
each of those series lines, I would have made a paltry $12 of profit for a 1.5% rate of
return. Whereas betting on the individual moneylines and pucklines produced a 12.2% return. It was much better betting the games than the series, at least
for me.
Granted, it should be noted that my $1,000 of round
one profit would have been a -$700 loss if not
for the Vegas-Winnipeg series, especially post-Morrissey injury. Once that news
hit the wire, I was “all in” on Vegas. But that also illustrates why it can be
optimal to bet individual games rather than the series lines. The Jets were
tempting prior to game one because they have a game-stealing goaltender and
were reasonably healthy (we thought Ehlers would be back), but once the
dominoes started to fall, Vegas was the clear choice.
It was an interesting first two nights in the opening
round, as underdogs won 6 of the first 8 games. I correctly picked 4 of those
upsets, though it was more a function of line value than believing in miracles.
Some of the home teams were a little too favored to start the playoffs, that’s
why I bet LA, Minnesota, Winnipeg, and the Rangers. My line value algorithm
begged me to take Seattle, but my lack of faith in their goaltending overruled
that recommendation (Grubauer went from an .895 SV% in the regular season to .926
in round one).
One of the big winners from the first week, or at
least the first few days, was underdogs -1.5 goals, which came almost entirely
from road dogs. There were some big road upsets in the first four nights, like
Winnipeg +340, Florida +450, Seattle +380, Tampa +310, Rangers +290 and +275,
etc. Road teams in general created a nice return in games ones and twos, and
that momentum carried right through to the end of the round. Although nearly
all the success of road dogs -1.5 goals was confined to the first week.
Round One Betting Results
My 3 Best Market
Bets of Round 1: Overall Best Market Bets of Round
1:
1) Road moneyline: +$1,760 1) Road
moneyline: +$1,694
2) Road ML zig zags: +$698 2) Road ML zig
zags: +$962
3) Home favorites -1.5 goals: +$620 3)
Road underdogs -1.5 goals: +$780
My 3 Worst Market
Bets of Round 1: Overall Worst Market Bets of Round
1:
1) Home moneyline: -$1,096 1) Home
moneyline: -$1,600
2) Favorites moneyline: -$700 2) Favorites -1.5
goals: -$655
3) Unders: -$234 3) Favorites +1.5
goals: -$499
My Best Teams To Bet On In Round 1: Overall Best Teams To Bet On:
(over/under/hedges not included) ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5
+ $100 PL-1.5)
1) Vegas Golden Knights: +$1,721 1) Florida Panthers: +$740
2) Dallas Stars: +$592 2)
Vegas Golden Knights: +$598
3) Carolina Hurricanes: +$454 3) Dallas
Stars: +$485
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Round
1: Market’s
Best Over/under Bets in Round 1:
(over/under/hedges not included) ($100 wagers)
1) New York
Rangers, -$510 1) Seattle-Colorado unders, +$423
2) Boston Bruins, -$398 2) Boston-Florida
overs, +$338
3) Colorado Avalanche,
-$320 3) Vegas-Winnipeg
overs, +$161
If you bet $100 on every road moneyline in the first round,
you banked $1,694, which would have been $1,759 on the closing line, meaning a
significant amount of public money was being laid on the home squads. Road
moneyline was quite easily my best revenue generator, though I entered the
first round expecting home favorites -1.5 goals to be my default selection due
to a strong performance by that category in the last 2 playoffs. But that plan
was scrapped in the first few nights of the playoffs when road dogs were
surging.
If you read my Round One Preview then you are familiar with the concept of “zig zagging”. If you have
not read it, I’ll wait a moment while you do. The loser of the previous game
went 10-2 in the first 12 zig zag opportunities of round one. If you bet them
-1.5 goals on the puckline (whether favorite or underdog), you did even better
(but that was only because of that aforementioned one magical night). That
level of success was not sustainable, and they were revenue neutral in the
second week, with road teams generating +$400 on $100 wagers and home teams
losing -$400.
If you bet $100 on every “zig zag” opportunity for the
full first round, you made $962 from the road moneyline, and lost -$285 on the home moneyline. Problem was, when a home
team is avenging defeat, their line price can get absurdly expensive. Florida
and Seattle were two of the best at responding to losses, with the Panthers
winning twice after losing as +205 and +200 underdogs. Seattle also had 2 wins
after following losses. The worst team at responding to losses was Winnipeg
(going 0-3), which I’m sure Rick Bowness would love to tell you all about.
Unders had a strong opening two nights, but overs
moved into lead as more games were played. There was some fluky business going
on there, as the Islanders-Hurricanes were tied 1-1 with less than 4 minutes to
play, and it finished 5-1. I had the Isles moneyline, but had to stop my
celebration when they wouldn’t stop scoring. Their arena was rocking and home
fans were thrilled, but as the camera panned through the crowd, you could see
that a few of the faithful had also bet the under. There was less enthusiasm by
goal 5.
While overs did produce a nice profit for the first
week of the playoffs, you could have done even better waiting until the closing
line. If you bet $100 on every over for the first 6 days, you banked $422, but
waiting until the closing line would have yielded $607. There was a lot of
public money pouring in on the unders, which made sense to me as my algorithms
were strongly pointing me in that direction as well. It seemed like the totals
were being set artificially high, but the oddsmakers surely had artificial
intelligence seeing something my simple equations could not.
Injuries always play a big role in the playoffs, and
2023 was no different, with star players like Patrice Bergeron, Victor Hedman,
Josh Morrissey, and others missing time. There were several instances where you
didn’t know who would be playing until the player was taking warm-ups, which
adds a layer of difficulty for someone like me who is making all my picks 24-48
hours before games. Granted, in the long run that tends to even out. You might bet Boston
before finding out Bergeron won’t play, but you may have also bet Toronto before getting confirmation on Hedman.
Dallas vs Minnesota:
My Total Profit: $460
Over/Under Profit: -$195
My Series Bet: Dallas -140 ü
My Exact Bet: Dallas in 7 games +400 û
My best series opening week was the Stars vs Wild,
betting the correct outcome in their first 4 games while going 2-2 on their
over/under. I bet the over in all four, and the two that lost only fell short
by 0.5 goals. Unfortunately I continued that wager in the last 2 games, and both
went under. The first three zig zag opportunities were a success, so I
continued with that strategy for the remainder of the series, but it that was
broken Dallas won the last 3 games. Nearly all of my $460 profit was solicited
from game two, when I went big on all the home losers from game one.
It was a very physical battle with some brutal
officiating. Jake Oettinger was outstanding, and that gives the Stars a big
edge in the next round. Robertson-Hintz-Heiskanen-Oettinger is a force to be
reckoned with, and the reason I decided to bet them to win round two before
finding out who their opponent would be. Frankly it didn’t matter. Injuries did
play a big role in this series, as Kaprizov clearly hadn’t completely healed
from his injury, and they were without a valuable piece in Joel Eriksson Ek for 5 of 6.
Boston
vs Florida:
My Total Profit: -$348
Over/Under Profit: -$45
My Series Bet: Boston -320 û
My Exact Bet: Boston in 6 games +380 û
The Boston Bruins
were a record setting team this season, so they were undeniably my pick to win.
The Panthers were also hot down the stretch, but the goaltending was a serious
concern. However when Florida won game two convincingly 6-2, that seduced me
into picking them at home in games three and four (the injuries to Patrice
Bergeron and Linus Ullmark also played a factor) and the Bruins won both to take
a 3-1 series lead. It looked locked up, then the Panthers won 3 consecutive
games to knock the mighty Bruins out of the playoffs.
Overs went 5-1 in
this series, but I picked the under 4 times, leading to a loss. Both teams had
played in low scoring games near the end of the schedule, and I was mistakenly
expecting Vezina-level goaltending from Linus Ullmark. After the 9 goals in
game two, I stupidly doubled down on the under for game three, but saw the
light and bet over for games 4, 5, 6 going 3-0. I followed the EBR rule and
went back to the under for game seven, and it was a high scoring affair. I took the \over for game one of Toronto vs Florida (which missed by 1 goal).
Edmonton
vs Los Angeles:
My Total Profit: $395
Over/Under Profit: -$158
My Series Bet: Edmonton -220 ü
My Exact Bet: Edmonton in 6 games +400 ü
The Edmonton
Oilers were the NHL’s hottest team to close the season, leading to an inflated
series betting line. My algorithms really wanted me to pick LA, but it’s hard
to bet against a team that won 14 of their last 15 games. Well, the gap between
the teams was closer than the lines implied, as the Kings jumped out to a 2-1
series lead, and a 3-0 lead in game four. Edmonton staged an impressive
comeback, but very nearly fell behind 3-1 in the series, which is enormously
difficult to overcome. They were the only team that I picked to win in the
correct number of games.
It all came down
to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl being other worldly, but that’s
also why their line prices were so expensive. I actually bet Los Angeles to win
in 4 of the 6 games and made a decent profit for the series, just not when
betting LA to win. My largest wager was game two Oilers moneyline and puckline
after they lost game one. That was part of a greater home favorite zig zag
strategy. I was a net loser on their over/under as overs went 5-2, but my
algorithms got too wrapped up in unders and led me astray.
Carolina vs Islanders:
My Total Profit: $161
Over/Under Profit: -$333
My Series Bet: Carolina -190 ü
My Exact Bet: Carolina in 7 games +400 û
Carolina was my
pick heading into this series, but for the first four games bet the home
moneyline (going 3-1). The problem was, I also picked the under in all 4 of
those games and overs inexplicably went 3-1. I had some concern after Teuvo
Teravainen was lost to injury, as the Canes already had key pieces missing. Yet
they managed to soldier through it, with some assistance from an anemic
Islanders offense. In total I bet each team 3 times, picking the correct winner
in 5 of the 6 games, but that was barely enough to pay for my losses on
over/under.
It was not a
victory that inspired me to take the Hurricanes in round two, I’m just hoping for
some line value on their opponents (with the Devils being favored on the series line). Ilya
Sorokin did his part, as the Canes were held to 2 or less goals in 4 of 6 games,
yet still prevailed in the series because of the Islanders inability to score. I
bet the under in 5 of 6 games, but they went 3-3. There were some
uncharacteristic scoring bursts from both teams in games two through five. So
I’m going to chalk up my -$333 loss as a “bad beat” that wasn’t my fault. Those
damned Islanders scored 4 goals in the last 3 minutes of game three.
Toronto vs Tampa Bay:
My Total Profit: -$625
Over/Under Profit: -$60
My Series Bet: Toronto -120 ü
My Exact Bet: Toronto in 7 games +425 û
The Tampa Bay Lightning were bad down the stretch, and
had two key players (Cernak and Hedman) miss time to injury in this series. That’s
why my money was on Toronto for the first 3 games, going 2-1. The Leafs took a
3-1 series lead, which birthed a new dilemma, given how outstanding Andrei
Vasilevskiy has performed in elimination games the last few playoffs. The
problem being, he was mostly bad in this series, as it was really looking like
3 consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup final and a busy workload in the regular
season were finally catching up with him.
Tempting as the Vasilevskiy elimination games were,
once the Leafs up 3-1 in the series, my money was on Toronto. Well Vasilevskiy
was outstanding in game five, picking up a win in Toronto, returning home to
Tampa with an opportunity to tie the series. That lured me to the Tampa side
when they were at home for game six, and the buds knocked them out of the
playoffs. Leaf fans can surely thank me for their series win, as they were all but
guaranteed to lose had I bet Tampa in game six, since Toronto is demonstrably
worse when I bet them to win.
Vegas vs Winnipeg:
My Total Profit: $1,721
Over/Under Profit: -$23
My Series Bet: Vegas -170 ü
My Exact Bet: Vegas in 7 games +400 û
The Jets managed to pull off a game one victory and
had an impressive comeback to push game three to overtime before losing in O.T.
Sadly for Jets fans, they lost Josh Morrissey for the series in that game,
which they could not overcome. Vegas was my pick to win the series, but I did
bet the Jets in 2 of the first 3 games based on “line value” and the
possibility of Hellebuyck stealing any given game, but after the Morrissey
injury, I was all-in on Vegas. 89% of my total profit came from the final 2
games, both moneyline and puckline.
It didn’t make much sense to me why the Vegas
moneyline was -110 in game four with Morrissey out, but Winnipeg was at home
with their backs up against the wall, so historically that has surely yielded
some positive results (when a low seed is at home in game four down 2-1 having
lost game three, they win 53%). That line hardly moved from open to close, so
the public must have been betting the home team zig zag. It was also confusing
how the Knights were only -155 favorites in game five (including +170 on the
puckline -1.5 goals) Evidently the public agreed with me, as the line moved all
the way -195 by puck drop. Vegas won the last two games by a combined score of
8-3. Easy money.
New Jersey vs Rangers:
My Total Profit: -$539
Over/Under Profit: $221
My Series Bet: New York +100 û
My Exact Bet: New York in 7 games +550 û
Betting the New Jersey Devils to win was one of my
most profitable wagers this season, so it brought me no satisfaction picking
the Rangers to win the series. The difference maker that could not be
overlooked was in goal, with Igor Shesterkin being vastly superior to Vitek
Vanecek. In the first 2 games, Vanecek gave up 9 goals, Shesterkin 2, as the
Rangers took a 2-0 series lead. Then the Devils went on the road, put rookie
Akira Schmid in the net, and the kid delivered three outstanding performances
to take a 3-2 series lead.
The Rangers did manage to force game seven, which had
they won would have cashed my Rangers in 7 wager at +550. But Akira Schmid
pitched another shutout, outdueling Shesterkin in a do or die scenario. In 5
games Schmid posted a .951 SV%, and has now moved into the top 5 for Conn
Smythe odds. Had the Swiss puck-stopper not swooped in like a Superman to save
the day, and Vanecek continued to flounder, this would have been a profitable
series for me. Had the Rangers won game seven, cashing my +550 NYR in 7 bet, it
could have erased all my losses game-by-game.
Colorado vs Seattle:
My Total Profit: $435
Over/Under Profit: $395
My Series Bet: Colorado -260 û
My Exact Bet: Colorado in 6 games +400 û
My lack of faith in Seattle goaltending encouraged me
to go big on Colorado as this series began, and was stunned as Seattle won the
first 1.5 games. They jumped out to an early lead in game two, which I lamented
on Twitter that my Colorado bet was a loser, and the reverse jinx attempt was
the difference maker. Then once again in game four, the Kraken jumped out to a
2 goal lead in the first period, but that time hung on to win. The same thing
happened in game five, as Seattle jumped out to a 3-2 series lead, putting the
defending champs in a “do or die” situation.
I only bet Seattle twice in this series, but hit big
on both as +180 road dogs. Including game seven. It didn’t make sense to me why
Seattle and Florida were +180 and +190 underdogs respectively for G7 when they
were clearly good enough to push their series to the max number of games. Yes
Colorado and Boston were at the top of the Stanley Cup probability leaderboard,
their series had been much closer than the line suggested. Unders went 6-1, with
me picking the under in 6 of the games, helping make this my third most
profitable series despite being wrong about Colorado winning.
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