2023/24 Week 2 NHL Betting Report

Week two of the NHL season has been logged into the history books and after a terrible week one, my dignity was mostly salvaged. Look, early in the season, we’re still trying to figure out which teams are better or worse, which goalies are hot or cold, it’s a crapshoot. What added insult to injury was creating a “Tailing History” betting model (henceforth referred to as T.H) that makes picks on every game based on what was more profitable in the previous 4 seasons, and it absolutely crushed me in the opening week. Instead of taking a “if you can’t beat’em, join’em” approach, I went contrarian attempting to gain ground and succeeded.
 
Before we go any further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.
 
If you’d like to read more about the first 3 years of this thought experiment, I wrote a 330-page book outlining the results from every angle. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. To read more, visit the Amazon store. My blog has been moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.
 
At some point in the next 2 weeks, I’ll start sending exclusive betting content to my blog subscribers. Maybe “exclusive” is the wrong word given that subscriptions are free, but I’m trying to create incentive for people to subscribe. The day Twitter dies, my plan B will be well underway. All subscribers were sent a “thank you for subscribing” email from my own personal account. If you did not receive it, check your spam filter. If you want exclusive content, you need to read and reply to that email indicating your consent and whether you would like fantasy, betting, or both. I don’t want to send betting picks to subscribers who don’t gamble, or fantasy advice to those who don’t play fantasy hockey.
 
My Weekly Profit: $2,366            Tailing History Weekly Profit: -$528
My Season Profit: $500                Tailing History Season Profit: $2,009
 
I’m still trailing my historical precedence betting model on the season, but won convincingly this week. When my Week 3 Preview was posted Sunday, the portfolio had reported a small profit, at least until going 0-4 on its Sunday bets, most notably a large bet on Anaheim -1.5 goals at +500. At one point in the 3rd period of that game, Anaheim had a 1-0 lead. It cashed a max bet -1.5 goals on Chicago +600 vs Toronto Monday. Had the Ducks held on and added an empty net goal, T.H would have posted a $1,500 profit for the week, up nearly $5,000 on the year. I had a unit on both Bruins ML and PL, so an Anaheim 2-0 win would have hurt my self-esteem.
 
My Tailing History portfolio was only intended to be a barometer of historical profitability replicability. Even if it lost money, the results would provide fodder for analysis about how trends are changing. I’m posting weekly Betting Previews this season, so T.H would use those for all its decision making and I’m tracking it’s results across several categories. The success or failure of the portfolio would at least provide some contextual relevance for my reports. People might bet their hard-earned money based on what worked in past seasons. Tailing History is keeping score.
 
Historical precedence suggested this would be a good week to bet underdogs -1.5 goals, and indeed it was. It was the best category overall, profiting $1,070 profit if you bet them all. It was just the home dogs of +170 on the moneyline who went 0-5, and those ultimately dragged T.H into the negative profit. But again, this would be a completely different story if the Ducks held on to that lead and scored an empty net goal. My Betting Preview last Sunday signaled this was historically a great week for those alt pucklines, and that was proven to be true. That could be just a coincidence, or maybe history can guide us. Time will tell.
 
Unders went 24-18-5 in week two, producing a profit when the total was 6, 6.5, or 7 (there were no 5.5 opening totals, but a few closed at 5.5). Indeed, I posted profit for all 3 of those totals after a weak showing in week one. Tailing History simply bet over 6, under 6.5 and 7, which was a simple enough strategy resulting in a small profit. My own team leaderboard in the over/under realm has a few trends emerging after 2 weeks, Detroit-Carolina-Ottawa overs and Seattle-Anaheim-Boston-Vegas unders. Carolina overs is my best O/U bet of the first 2 weeks, we’ll see if the leaky goaltending persists.
 
Vegas retains their top spot in my Profitability Rankings, while Edmonton remains in dead last. The Golden Knights are undefeated and in the conversation for best team in the league, who does not appear to be suffering from any Stanley Cup hangover whatsoever. The Oilers just lost McDavid for 1-2 weeks, so I’ll be aggressively betting their opponents throughout that absence, starting with 2 units on Minnesota Tuesday (80% moneyline, 20% puckline), but the Wild do make me nervous after giving up 54 shots to a tired Columbus team this week.
 
I was a net loser shorting back-to-backs om the last 7 days, thanks to the Calgary loss on Sunday. The New York Islanders did their part though, with a victory against the tired Arizona Coyotes and a loss to Buffalo after the Isles played the night before. Looking at week three in the previous 4 seasons, shorting back-to-backs was a net loser. If you bet $100 on all their moneylines, you lost -$529. If you bet them all -1.5 goals (including dogs) you lost -$923. That’s why T.H only has small bets on the back-to-backs Tuesday, even taking Ottawa +1.5 goals as home favorites.
 
The San Jose Sharks cost me some money in week one when MacKenzie Blackwood stopped 51 of 52 shots when I had a max bet on Colorado -1.5 goals (Carolina pumped him for 6 the next game). This might have put my guard up, but did not diminish my belief that they are the worst team in the NHL. They were crushed by Nashville on Saturday, which strongly re-enforced my previous belief that they suck bad. They finished last season #1 in my Profitability Rankings for that very reason. If they do get good goaltending, I may need to lay off the pucklines, though that Blackwood great start is beginning to look like an anomaly.
 
 
My Team of the Week: Carolina Hurricanes, +$839
 
The Carolina Hurricanes finished atop my week two Profitability Rankings, going undefeated on my Canes picks, betting them to beat San Jose, and lose to Seattle-Colorado. Their overs went 3-0, and I went 3-0 betting them. If you follow me on Twitter, you would have seen me Tweet “it may be a while before I bet another Carolina under”. This comes completely unexpected, but I gladly joined the bandwagon once they started cashing. They’re typically a tough team to score on and it would be logical to conclude that adding Dmitry Orlov would help defensively, but they’ve been painfully leaky. By the way, “leaky” is my new favorite work for allowing too many goals.
 
The Colorado Avalanche were my second-best team of the week, in part thanks to their victory over the Carolina, but the rest of my profit came from their victory against Chicago where I had a max bet on the Avs puckline -1.5 goals. I’ve had the opportunity to watch a couple Avalanche games this season, and they look impressive. Against the Blackhawks, there were shifts with MacKinnon-Rantanen-Toews-Makar on the ice 5v5 where it genuinely looked like Colorado had a power play. All 5 Hawks were stacked in the box while the Avs snapped the puck around. It was beautiful to watch.
 
 
My Worst Team of the Week: Edmonton Oilers, -$725
 
The Edmonton Oilers were tied with Vancouver as my worst team last week (they only played each other), but the Oilers took sole possession of last place in week two. Their losses against Vancouver inspired me to bet Nashville as home dogs Tuesday, and the Oilers crushed them. That convinced me that the Oilers were back on track, so I laid down a max bet on them to beat Philly next game (half moneyline, half puckline) and the supposedly tanking Flyers won 4-1. I Tweeted “Note to self: Stop betting Oilers to win.” That was even before the McDavid injury.
 
The Philadelphia Flyers were my second worst team of the week, but only posted a -$268 loss. This team is exceeding my expectations, and my thought that they would be tanking/terrible seems to have been thwarted by the return of a healthy Sean Couturier, a former Selke Trophy winner who shut-down the aforementioned Oilers with Couturier matched-up against McDavid. You add a player like that to Philly’s line-up, they get good goaltending from Carter Hart, and they’re not safe bet to lose. They are feisty and haven’t played Cal Petersen yet.
 
 

My Week 2 Results

*Note* “Overall Market Bets” based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.

 

 
Favorites -1.5 goals have been a problem for me over the first two weeks, being driven by heavy favorites of at least -200 on the moneyline, and most of those have been at home. This is making me increasingly reluctant to put my whole bet on the puckline, choosing instead to have an equal or greater amount on the moneyline in those games. Digging deeper into the numbers, the bulk of my losses came from three teams, Toronto, Edmonton, and New Jersey. Those teams hit the puckline -1.5 goals in only 2 of 14 games to start the season. Note to self. I’m still doing max bets on heavy favorites, leaning more towards 80% moneyline, 20% puckline.

 
The Detroit Red Wings have opened the season 5-1 and are tied with Boston for first place in the Atlantic. I hyped Calgary to beat Detroit on Sunday because the Wings were on a back-to-back, and Calgary got pumped 6-2. DeBrincat is now the leading scorer in the NHL. Be very careful if you’re betting Detroit to lose because they might be an offensive powerhouse. Detroit and Philly were the most profitable teams to bet overall in week two, followed by Colorado, Boston, and Vegas. I lost a big bet when Chicago upset Toronto, but made most of my money back on their loss in Florida’s home opener.

 

Me vs Myself

 
The Me vs Myself section is where I review my results in direct comparison to Tailing History, but some of that will be done in my Sunday preview (read that for more commentary). This will focus more on the week ahead, now that I’ve had the opportunity to log all my wagers for a busy Tuesday night. As mentioned yesterday, unders are historically a great week three bet, and T.H will be betting under for every single game regardless of total. I’m also leaning heavy under on Tuesday, but did take a few overs: Detroit-Seattle, Minnesota-Edmonton (despite McDavid injury), Montreal-Jersey (betting double), and Tampa-Carolina (betting double).
 
Me and myself are in agreement:
 
Florida-San Jose: Both max bets on Florida -1.5 goals vs San Jose.
New Jersey-Montreal: I have a max bet on New Jersey moneyline, T.H has a minimum bet on Jersey -1.5 goals
Toronto-Washington: We both have max bet on Leafs ML
Vegas-Philly: T.H has a max bet on Vegas -1.5 goals. I’m more cautious of Philly, putting 1 unit on Vegas ML and a ½ unit on the PL.
Tampa-Carolina: T.H put a max bet on Lightning ML. I put a minimum bet on Tampa ML (they’re not awesome, but I liked them as a home dog vs struggling Canes)
 
Me and myself are in disagreement:
 
Boston-Chicago: me going max on Boston (80% ML, 20% PL), T.H going max on Chicago +1.5 goals.
Rangers-Calgary: T.H has a max bet on Flames ML. I have a small bet on Rangers ML.
LA-Arizona: T.H put a max bet on LA -1.5 goals vs Arizona, but I put a minimum bet on the Yotes because +170 is a nice number for a team that is 3-2 vs a team that’s 2-3.
Edmonton-Minnesota: I’m going max on Minnesota vs Edmonton (80% ML, 20% PL), TH has a small bet on the Oilers +1.5 goals.
Colorado-Islanders: I have a max bet on Avs (80% ML, 20% PL), T.H has a max bet on Isles ML
Dallas-Pittsburgh: T.H has a max bet on Penguins, I have a small bet on Dallas ML
 
Below is the official me vs the model table by category. It’s the same as the one in the Sunday Preview but updated to include the Sunday games.