Sunday, October 29, 2023

2023/24 Week 4 Fantasy Hockey Waiver Report

Week 4 of the NHL season is 3 days away, but I’m already looking ahead at potential streaming targets. The best schedule belongs to Philadelphia, with the most light nights of the 4-game teams, and some leaky opponents on the slate. Next best was Dallas, followed by Arizona and Vegas rounding out the busiest teams. The leakiest schedule actually belongs to the Rangers, but they only play on busy nights. Scroll down to the bottom for a team strength of schedule graphic (with a stat multiplier for prop bettors), and another showing the watch list used to compile this report with their stats so far in the current schedule.
 
My blog has been moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave. I have already started sending out bonus betting content exclusive to subscribers, and may start a Sunday Fantasy Thoughts. You just need to email me and tell me if you want bonus betting picks, bonus fantasy thoughts, or both.
 
Best Standard League Adds (25% to 65% Yahoo ownership):

1) Travis Sanheim, Phi, (33% Yahoo ownership): You can add “Travis Sanheim 8 PTS in 7 GP” to the list of early season stat lines I never expected, but the Flyers are better than expected and Sanheim is quarterbacking their top power play unit, which has received a boost with the returns of Atkinson and Couturier (more on them below). What’s even better, they play 4 games (2 on light nights) this week (vs Car-Buf-Buf-LA) against teams who have with goal prevention this season (Sabres are only slightly below average). If Sanheim has already been added in your league, Brayden McNabb is off to a nice start, and provides added value in leagues that count hits and blocks. He’s also +9 with 5 PTS in 8 GP.
 
2) Karel Vejmelka, Ari, (54% Yahoo ownership): The Arizona Coyotes have a 4-game schedule coming up against Chi-Ana-Mtl-Wpg which are all teams you can beat who have limited offensive potency (Jets only one of those above average at scoring, Habs average). I had added Vejmelka to one of my teams a few days ago, but streamed him out due to schedule (they only played twice, both vs LA). If he’s still on the waiver wire, I’ll be re-acquiring Karel the thrill with his .942 SV% in 4 games. Also 3 of their games are at home where they are a much better team. Meanwhile; Jonas Johansson is available in 35% of leagues and had 2 shutouts this week. He’ll take a hit when Vasy is back, but is solid right now if you can find him.
 
3) Nick Schmaltz, Ari, (37% Yahoo ownership): Nick Schmaltz was my #1 waiver target in week two, rewarding you with 4 PTS if you followed that advice. For the record, I took my own advice, but streamed Schmaltz out for their 2-game week like Vejmelka. Schmaltz (7 PTS in 6 GP (3 on the PP) with 13 shots) is still available on waivers in both my leagues and might be making a return to my roster, eligible at center and right wing. Logan Cooley plays with Schmaltz on the Coyotes top power play unit, scoring 5 PTS in his first 6 NHL GP, all those points coming on the power play. The downside with Cooley is weak shot and hit numbers, if you care about those. The young gun centers line two with Maccelli and Kerfoot.'

4) Chandler Stephenson, Veg, (58% Yahoo ownership): Like Schmaltz, Chandler Stephenson is also making a repeat appearance on my waiver report, still available in 42% of Yahoo leagues. He centers the second line with Mark Stone and plays top power play, scoring 7 PTS in 8 GP (3 on the PP). The shot totals are low, so you may want to try a different option if you’re sensitive to that. You could go with his teammate Ivan Barbashev, who plays up on line one with Eichel and Marchessault. He only has 2 goals in 8 GP with 14 hits, so you’ll need to be in a hits league to prioritize the winger (who is also eligible at center). His shot totals aren’t great either, but he is shooting more often than Stephenson and does see 2nd unit PP duty.
 
5) William Karlsson, Veg, (30% Yahoo ownership): Wild Bill started the season right where he left off in June, scoring 9 PTS in his first 8 GP (1 on the PP) for the defending champs, adding 14 shots and a +8. I’m not expecting him to continue at a point-per-game clip, but Vegas has a busy week and he centers their second power play unit, so he’s worth a stream and is widely available.  Meanwhile, Matt Duchene might only have 2 PTS in 6 GP, but did get onto the scoresheet in both of their last 2, adding 12 shots. He centers their 2nd line and 2nd power play, plus they have some leaky opponents coming up (Columbus, Calgary, Edmonton, and Vancouver (who is better than average at goal prevention)).


Honorable Mentions: Ivan Barbashev, Logan Cooley, Jonas Johansson, Matt Duchene, Brayden McNabb
 
Last Week: Akira Schmid, Mike Matheson, Dawson Mercer, Ryan Hartman, Tom Wilson

 
Best Deep League Adds (under 25% ownership):

1) Cam Atkinson, Phi, (9% Yahoo ownership): Cam Atkinson missed last season due to injury but is back with a vengeance, scoring 4 goals and 7 PTS in 7 GP with 20 shots on goal. He’s playing top line and top power play, which have been excelling early in the schedule. I doubt he’ll finish with 80 PTS, so there should be some regression coming, just not this week given the aforementioned Flyers opponents. Owen Tippett is 31% owned and technically belongs in the previous section, but I decided to put him down here with his linemates Atkinson and Couturier. He doesn’t join them on the top unit power play, but has 4 PTS and 23 shots in 7 games and should pop a few in the week ahead.
  
2) Sean Couturier, Phi, (20% Yahoo ownership): Speaking of players who missed last season and are suddenly excelling on top line and top power play, there’s another one of those on the Philadelphia Flyers, this one a former Selke trophy winner who probably deserves the most credit for the Flyers unexpected resurgence. He has 6 PTS in 7 GP (2 on the PP) with 15 shots and has a fantastic upcoming schedule. Meanwhile: Matias Maccelli received an honorable mention in my week two report and was featured in my Draft Bargains post prior to the season. The winger has 4 PTS in his first 6 GP (3 on the power play) adding 10 shots, although half of those came in their first game, and he’s been averaging 1 per game since.
 
3) Paul Cotter, Veg, (12% Yahoo ownership): Welcome Paul Cotter to my fantasy waiver report, his first career appearance on any blog post of mine. He’s here because of 5 PTS (2 on the power play) and a whopping 31 hits in 8 GP. He plays on the third line and second power play with the aforementioned William Karlsson, and is off to a nice start. If he continues hitting at that rate, it won’t be long before I’m saying welcome back Cotter. If you want a player who is getting more ice time, shoots more, and has a higher offensive ceiling, Wyatt Johnston is a tempting target in Dallas, with 5 PTS in 6 GP, adding 12 shots and averaging 17:21 of ice time compared to Cotter’s 12:48.

4) Scott Wedgewood, Dal, (4% Yahoo ownership): Scott Wedgewood hasn’t been great in his 2 starts, sporting an .889 SV%, but the Stars are going to play 4 games in 6 days so might use Wedge twice in very winnable games. He was a good goalie last season, posting a .915 SV% in 21 GP, and I’m expecting the Stars to ease the burden on Oettinger so he doesn’t run out of gas in the playoffs. Or you could also go with Connor Ingram in Arizona, who also has an unimpressive .889 SV% (thanks to a bad Kings game, but was solid in his first 2 starts) and was also a good goalie last season, posting a .907 SV% in 27 games. I’m not worried about either goalie starting slow, expecting both of them to settle down and see a decent amount of action.

5) Cam York, Phi, (3% Yahoo ownership): Cam York doesn’t play on the Flyers top power play, but does see time on the second unit and is averaging 23 minutes of ice per game. The reason York got the nod for my deep league D slot is the 14 shots he’s added in 7 games. He has only scored 2 PTS thus far, but I like the Flyers schedule and he’s 97% available. Juuso Valimaki doesn’t play on the top Arizona power play, but that hasn’t stopped him from collecting 3 PTS with the man advantage. Still, he’s second fiddle to York because he’s not providing many shots or hits. Thomas Harley was also a finalist given the appealing Dallas schedule (3 PTS in 6 GP), but doesn’t play PP and only has 6 shots and 3 hits.
 
Honorable Mentions: Owen Tippett, Wyatt Johnston, Matias Maccelli, Cam York, Connor Ingram
 
Last Week: Ondrej Palat, Calen Addison, Rafael Harvey-Pinard, MacKenzie Blackwood, Marcus Foligno

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