Tuesday, November 7, 2023

2023/24 Week 5 Fantasy Hockey Waiver Report

The award for best week 5 schedule goes to the Florida Panthers, with not only the most porous opponents, but also playing all their games on light schedule nights. The next best with 4 games are Tampa, Dallas, and Toronto; while those with the toughest 4-games schedules are Columbus, Montreal, and Minnesota. Scroll down to the bottom to see my October Fantasy Awards, which was going to be its own post, but I decided to squeeze it in here instead. Coming up with monthly awards will be a work in progress that starts today.
 
My blog has been moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave. I have already started sending out bonus betting content exclusive to subscribers, and may start a Sunday Fantasy Thoughts. You just need to email me and tell me if you want bonus betting picks, bonus fantasy thoughts, or both.
 
 
Best Standard League Adds (25% to 65% Yahoo ownership):
 
1) Evan Rodrigues, Fla, (52% Yahoo ownership): The Florida Panthers have the best schedule this week, playing 4 times, all on light nights (M-W-F-Sun) mostly against teams outside the playoff race. E-Rod was banged up recently, but played against Detroit and racked up 6:26 of power play time (the refs likely had money on Florida), 2nd most on the team. He also plays top line with Barkov and Reinhart, scoring 8 PTS in 9 GP with 26 shots and a +7. Meanwhile, Ryan Hartman would have been on this had he not been bumped to Minnesota’s 2nd line and 2nd power play. He still has quality linemates to play with (Zuccarello and Johansson), and has scored 9 PTS in 10 GP with 27 shots.
 
2) Filip Hronek, Van, (63% Yahoo ownership): Filip Hronek’s fantasy stock has been climbing this month, thanks largely to his pairing with Quinn Hughes, who is off to a great start. Hronek has 10 PTS in 10 GP, and despite only playing on the Canucks 2nd power play unit, still has 3 PP PTS. The Canucks offense is humming, lighting up the San Jose Sharks 10-0 yesterday. The Canucks have a strong schedule coming up, and Hronek is must add if you can find him. If you’d like a PP1 option that’s available in more leagues, Mike Matheson and Zach Werenski have both been productive the last 2 weeks (5 & 6 PTS in their last 7 GP). But be warned, they have tougher defensive teams on their schedule (see the strength of schedule graphic below).

3) Marc-Andre Fleury, Min, (61% Yahoo ownership): Recommending a Minnesota goalie as a streaming target does give me pause, as that’s been a very leaky teak to start the season. The Wild play 4 tough(ish) teams, but they’re middle of the pack in goal scoring. Fleury at least has a .905 SV% in his last 2 starts, so I’m hoping that he can establish himself as the #1. I dropped Gustavsson in a league and he’s not getting any better (.871 SV% in his last 4 games). Another option with a much better recent track record is Lukas Dostal in Anaheim. John Gibson is banged up, and Dostal has 4 wins in his last 5 games with a .921 SV%. Ducks only play 3, but they’re all winnable games and the team has improved considerably from last year.
 
4) Nick Paul, TB, (35% Yahoo ownership): If you’re looking for a PP1 option with a good schedule who is more widely available, Nick Paul in Tampa fits that description (also playing on the 2nd line with Stamkos), scoring 7 PTS in 10 GP. Tampa faces Toronto, Montreal, and Chicago, teams you can potentially score on and with a front-loaded schedule. You can add him for Mon-Tue-Thu then drop him for a Fri-Sun streamer. If you would prefer a player who gets more ice time and shots, Nick Suzuki is 42% available and has a 4-game week ahead. He plays top line and top power play, scoring 8 PTS (4 on the power play) in 10 GP with 27 shots (compared to Nick Paul’s 20 shots in 10 games).
 
5) Boone Jenner, Cbj, (49% Yahoo ownership): This might be a reasonably tough 4-game week for the BJs, but I’m comfortable adding Boone Jenner, who centers their top line and top power play, scoring 7 PTS in 10 GP this season. Even better are his 37 shots and 11 hits. He’s eligible at both center and left wing, and if the coach needs to check his phone to make sure he’s not partying too hard on off days, Boone is a willing participant. His teammate Adam Fantilli is probably less comfortable with invasions of privacy, but is more widely available (only 29% owned) in fantasy. The young center has scored 5 PTS in his last 6 GP with 20 shots on goal playing 2nd line and top power play.
 
Honorable Mentions: Mike Matheson, Zach Werenski, Ryan Hartman, Nick Suzuki, Adam Fantilli, Lukas Dostal
 
Last Week: Travis Sanheim, Karel Vejmelka, Nick Schmaltz, Chandler Stephenson, William Karlsson

 
Best Deep League Adds (under 25% ownership):
 
1) Marco Rossi, Min, (4% Yahoo ownership): If you haven’t been following the state of Minnesota’s line combinations, Marco Rossi currently finds himself centering the top line with Kaprizov and Boldy, as well as a spot on that top power play. He’s available in a whopping 96% of Yahoo leagues after a slow start to the season when he was getting less ice time. Since the increased deployment, he has produced 5 PTS in his last 5 GP with 10 shots. One Rossi deficiency is hitting, so you could go with one of his teammates Marcus Foligno if that’s something your team needs. Foligno has 6 PTS and 33 hits in 10 GP, which makes him among the better point scorers for the high-volume hitters.

2) Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Fla, (16% Yahoo ownership): The Florida Panthers won the best schedule award this week, and OEL is currently quarterbacking their first power play unit. Ekblad and Montour are returning soon, and they’ll almost surely bump OEL from the power play altogether. The downside is, even with that assignment, he only has 1 point in his last 5 games. It’s not like that power play is excelling, so the job is temporary. But for the short-term, he’s a good deep league option. If you’d like more PP1 job security, Calen Addison in Minnesota plays 4 games, twice on light nights and is 95% available. He has 3 PTS in his last 6 GP, with 2 of those on the power play. His shot and hit totals are not as good as OEL.
 
3) Alex Barre-Boulet, TB, (1% Yahoo ownership): If you did not get the news alert on your phone, ABB now finds himself deployed on Tampa’s top line with Point and Kucherov. He might only be on the 2nd power play, but that hasn’t stopped him from logging 5 PTS in his last 5 GP. Tampa plays 4 games, although only once on light nights, so make sure there’s room in your line-up, but there are porous opponents ahead and he’s got generational talent on his line. Another player who has been on my radar to start the schedule (getting an honorable mention here last week) is Wyatt Johnston in Dallas, centering the second line and second power play, scoring 7 PTS in 9 GP with 19 shots and a +5. The Stars have a 4-game week ahead.
 
4) Ilya Mikheyev, Van, (10% Yahoo ownership): Elias Pettersson has started the NHL season on fire, bringing linemate Ilya Mikheyev along for the ride. The Russian winger has notched 5 PTS in 6 GP with 18 shots. Vancouver plays 4 times (2 on light nights) with some potentially porous opponents ahead. This team is off to their best start in years, as Rick Tocchet’s message is clearly making a big impact, winning 7 of their first 10 games. Another player who seems to have landed a nice line job is Calle Jarnkrok in Toronto, playing with Marner and Matthews. Toronto plays 4 games (3 on light nights) and Jarnkrok is available in 98% of leagues. Only 2 PTS in his last 4 GP, but that’s a nice line to be 3rd wheel.

5) Jake Allen, Mtl, (26% Yahoo ownership): If you’re in a deeper league with fewer goaltending options available, be aware Jake Allen is off to a great start and available in 74% of leagues. In 5 GP, he has 3 wins with a .927 SV%, as the Habs are another team that appears to have improved considerably from last season (a healthy Caufield is a big reason). Yes Montreal does play 4 times, but against teams who can score (Tampa, Detroit, Boston, and Vancouver), so there is some risk in this pick. A safer pick is Connor Ingram in Arizona, 92% available. The Yotes only play 3, but if the current rotation continues, Ingram will get starts against Seattle and Nashville. Neither of those teams scare me nearly as much as the Montreal opponents.
 
Honorable Mentions: Wyatt Johnson, Marcus Foligno, Calen Addison, Connor Ingram, Calle Jarnkrok
 
Last Week: Cam Atkinson, Sean Couturier, Paul Cotter, Scott Wedgewood, Cam York
 

October MVP
 
Who was the most valuable player of the month?
 
Jack Hughes              NJD
Elias Pettersson           VAN
Dylan Larkin               DET
 
Stock Rocket Award
 
Player with biggest increase in fantasy ownership.
 
Jonas Johansson        TBL    +74%
Frank Vatrano              ANA   +62%
Jaccob Slavin              CAR    +62%
Joseph Woll                 TOR    +60%
Seth Jarvis                   CAR    +55%
Travis Sanheim           PHI      +54%
Evan Rodrigues           FLA    +51%
Teuvo Teravainen        CAR    +50%
Jake Sanderson            OTT    +36%
Mike Matheson           MTL    +34%
 
Stock Plunger Award
 
Healthy player with the biggest drop in fantasy ownership.
 
Pyotr Kochetkov       CAR    -43%
Dawson Mercer           NJD     -35%
Blake Wheeler             NYR   -34%
Rickard Rakell            PIT      -31%
Jordan Eberle              SEA    -28%
Nikolaj Ehlers             WPG   -27%
Matthew Beniers         SEA    -25%
Pheonix Copley           LAK    -24%
Hampus Lindholm      BOS    -23%
Connor Brown            EDM   -22%
 
Jonathan Huberdeau Award
 
Player most below my point projection.
 
Blake Wheeler           NYR   9 GP 0 PTS
Lukas Reichel             CHI   9 GP 0 PTS
Connor Brown            EDM   8 GP 0 PTS
 
Pleasant Surprise Award
 
Player most exceeding my point projection.
 
Jack Hughes              NJD     8 GP, 18PTS
Ryan Strome                ANA   9 GP, 11 PTS
Jesper Bratt                 NJD     8 GP, 14 PTS
 
Simon Edvinsson Award
 
Player I’m most disappointed to see in the minors.
 
Simon Edvinsson       DET
Spencer Knight           FLA
Dylan Guenther           ARI

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