Tuesday, April 12, 2011

NHL 2011 Playoff Scoring Forecast

Here are my predictions for 2011 NHL playoff scoring, but it does come with a disclaimer. The list is an approximate forecast of production that does not necessarily constitute where these guys will go in your draft. My formula may predict Marleau to be top 5 in scoring, but you can likely get him 10-15 picks later. Same with Joe Pavelski. It is difficult to predict where players will be drafted in playoff pools, because different contestants have different approximations of games played and value. I counselled one of my friends through a draft Monday night, and some of the picks were nutty to say the least.

Injuries have been accounted for, and points per game was forecast using points since the allstar break. The GP forecast was more a function of probability theory and expected value. For example, I think Anaheim V Nashville is 50/50. So instead of giving a slight favourite 12 expected games and a slight underdog 6 expected games, I give both teams 9 expected games and split the 30% that the winner goes to the Conference final at a final E[GP]=10. Without further adieu, here's my list the two numbers you see are Expected Games Played and Expected Points.

PLAYER POS TEAM E[GP] E[PTS]
Alex Ovechkin, LW WSH 19 23
Daniel Sedin, LW VAN 17 21
Patrick Marleau, C SJ 16 19
Henrik Sedin, C VAN 17 18
Joe Pavelski, C SJ 16 18
Corey Perry, RW ANA 10 16
Mikael Samuelsson, RW VAN 17 15
Ryan Getzlaf, C ANA 10 14
Alexander Semin, LW WSH 19 14
Nicklas Backstrom, C WSH 19 14
Ryan Kesler, C VAN 17 14
Claude Giroux, RW PHI 15 14
Devin Setoguchi, RW SJ 16 13
Joe Thornton, C SJ 16 13
Pavel Datsyuk, C DET 15 13
Brooks Laich, C WSH 19 13
Martin St. Louis, RW TB 10 13
Logan Couture, C SJ 16 12
Mike Knuble, RW WSH 19 12
Milan Lucic, LW BOS 13 12
David Krejci, C BOS 13 12
Christian Ehrhoff, D VAN 17 12
Teemu Selanne, RW ANA 10 12
Danny Briere, C PHI 15 12
Henrik Zetterberg, C DET 13 11
Dany Heatley, RW SJ 16 11
Dan Boyle, D SJ 16 11
Jeff Carter, C PHI 15 11
Ryane Clowe, RW SJ 13 11
Bobby Ryan, RW ANA 10 11
Alex Burrows, C VAN 17 11
Johan Franzen, LW DET 15 11
Nathan Horton, RW BOS 13 10
Jonathan Toews, C CHI 9 10
Vincent Lecavalier, C TB 10 10
Patrick Kane, RW CHI 9 10
Jiri Hudler, LW DET 15 10
Nicklas Lidstrom, D DET 15 9
Brian Rafalski, D DET 15 9
Mike Richards, C PHI 15 9
Marcus Johansson, C WSH 19 9
Patrick Sharp, C CHI 9 9
Simon Gagne, LW TB 10 9
Torrey Mitchell, C SJ 16 9
Mason Raymond, LW VAN 17 9
Marian Hossa, RW CHI 9 9
Daniel Cleary, RW DET 15 8
Lubomir Visnovsky, D ANA 10 8
James van Riemsdyk, LW PHI 15 8
Ville Leino, LW PHI 15 8
Sergei Kostitsyn, LW NSH 10 8
Steven Stamkos, C TB 10 8
Martin Erat, LW NSH 8 8
Patrice Bergeron, C BOS 13 8
Marco Sturm, LW WSH 19 8
Zdeno Chara, D BOS 13 8
Saku Koivu, C ANA 10 8
Tomas Holmstrom, LW DET 15 8
Matt Carle, D PHI 15 8
Chris Kunitz, LW PIT 9 8
Jannik Hansen, RW VAN 17 7
Thomas Vanek, LW BUF 7 7
Christopher Higgins, LW VAN 17 7
David Legwand, C NSH 10 7
Brad Marchand, LW BOS 13 7
Scott Hartnell, RW PHI 15 7
Ian White, D SJ 16 7
Tomas Kaberle, D BOS 13 7
Todd Bertuzzi, RW DET 15 7
Teddy Purcell, RW TB 10 7
Mark Recchi, LW BOS 13 7
Jordan Staal, C PIT 9 7
Kris Versteeg, RW PHI 15 7
Tyler Kennedy, C PIT 9 7
Patric Hornqvist, RW NSH 10 7
Andrej Meszaros, D PHI 15 7
Matt Hendricks, C WSH 19 7
Kyle Wellwood, C SJ 16 7
Mike Green, D WSH 16 6
Drew Stafford, RW BUF 7 6
Daniel Paille, LW BOS 13 6
Brent Seabrook, D CHI 9 6
Niklas Kronwall, D DET 13 6
Jason Arnott, C WSH 16 6
Shane Doan, RW PHX 7 6
Jason Chimera, LW WSH 19 6
Ray Whitney, LW PHX 7 6
Shea Weber, D NSH 10 6
Kimmo Timonen, D PHI 15 6
Michael Ryder, RW BOS 13 6
Mike Cammalleri, LW MTL 8 6
Vaclav Prospal, C NYR 7 6
Mike Modano, C DET 15 6
Ryan Suter, D NSH 10 5
Dan Hamhuis, D VAN 17 5
Jason Blake, LW ANA 10 5
Brian Gionta, RW MTL 8 5
Eric Fehr, RW WSH 19 5
Darren Helm, C DET 15 5
Jason Pominville, RW BUF 7 5
Valtteri Filppula, C DET 15 5
Kevin Bieksa, D VAN 17 5
Radim Vrbata, RW PHX 7 5
Marian Gaborik, RW NYR 7 5
Brad Boyes, C BUF 7 5
Tomas Plekanec, C MTL 8 5
Dominic Moore, C TB 10 5
Brad Stuart, D DET 15 5
James Wisniewski, D MTL 8 5
P.K. Subban, D MTL 8 5
Cam Fowler, D ANA 10 5
Tim Connolly, C BUF 7 5
Alexei Kovalev, RW PIT 9 5
Jason Demers, D SJ 16 5
Duncan Keith, D CHI 9 5
Gregory Campbell, C BOS 13 5
Tyler Ennis, LW BUF 7 4
Sami Salo, D VAN 17 4
Dustin Brown, RW LA 7 4
Mike Fisher, C NSH 10 4
Marc-Edouard Vlasic, D SJ 16 4
Andrej Sekera, D BUF 7 4
Andrei Kostitsyn, RW MTL 8 4
David Desharnais, C MTL 8 4
Artem Anisimov, C NYR 7 4
Brett Clark, D TB 10 4
Chris Campoli, D CHI 9 4
Matt Halischuk, RW NSH 10 4
Pascal Dupuis, RW PIT 9 4
Blake Geoffrion, LW NSH 10 4
Douglas Murray, D SJ 16 4
Steve Downie, RW TB 8 4
Raffi Torres, LW VAN 15 4
Mathieu Perreault, C WSH 19 4
Dennis Seidenberg, D BOS 13 4
Eric Belanger, C PHX 7 4
Justin Abdelkader, LW DET 15 4
Drew Miller, LW DET 15 4
Lauri Korpikoski, C PHX 7 4
Brandon Dubinsky, LW NYR 7 4
Nathan Gerbe, LW BUF 7 4
Shawn Thornton, RW BOS 13 4
Brandon McMillan, C ANA 10 4
Joel Ward, RW NSH 10 4
Jordin Tootoo, RW NSH 10 4
Andrew Ference, D BOS 13 4
Paul Gaustad, C BUF 7 4
Derek Stepan, C NYR 7 4
Erik Christensen, C NYR 7 4
David Schlemko, D PHX 7 4
Jamal Mayers, C SJ 16 4
Zbynek Michalek, D PIT 9 3
Jonathon Blum, D NSH 10 3
Marc-Andre Bergeron, D TB 10 3
Adam McQuaid, D BOS 13 3
Nikolay Zherdev, RW PHI 15 3
Andrew Desjardins, C SJ 16 3
Tyler Myers, D BUF 7 3
Sean O'Donnell, D PHI 15 3
Keith Yandle, D PHX 7 3
Mats Zuccarello, RW NYR 7 3
Mikkel Boedker, RW PHX 7 3
Dan Sexton, RW ANA 10 3
Bryan Bickell, LW CHI 9 3
Ben Lovejoy, D PIT 9 3
Roman Hamrlik, D MTL 8 3
Sean Bergenheim, LW TB 10 3
Steve Montador, D BUF 7 3
Mathieu Darche, LW MTL 8 3
Tomas Kopecky, C CHI 9 3
Michael Frolik, C CHI 9 3
Victor Oreskovich, RW VAN 17 3
Cody Franson, D NSH 10 3
Tyler Seguin, C BOS 13 3
Karl Alzner, D WSH 19 3
Drew Doughty, D LA 7 3
Ryan Smyth, LW LA 7 3
Brian Campbell, D CHI 9 3
Scott Gomez, C MTL 8 3
Wojtek Wolski, LW NYR 7 3
Darroll Powe, LW PHI 15 3
Nate Thompson, C TB 10 3
Dustin Penner, LW LA 7 3
Wayne Simmonds, RW LA 7 3
Colin Wilson, C NSH 10 3
Braydon Coburn, D PHI 15 3
Marc Staal, D NYR 7 3
Johnny Boychuk, D BOS 13 3
Chris Pronger, D PHI 10 3
Taylor Pyatt, LW PHX 7 3
Maxime Talbot, C PIT 9 3
Kris Letang, D PIT 9 3
Mike Weber, D BUF 7 3
Scott Hannan, D WSH 19 3
Boyd Gordon, RW WSH 19 3
James Neal, LW PIT 9 2
Justin Braun, D SJ 16 2
Vernon Fiddler, C PHX 7 2
Jarret Stoll, C LA 7 2
Michal Handzus, C LA 7 2
Viktor Stalberg, LW CHI 9 2
Luca Sbisa, D ANA 10 2
Jeff Halpern, C MTL 8 2
Brandon Prust, RW NYR 7 2
Ruslan Fedotenko, RW NYR 7 2
Kyle Turris, C PHX 7 2
Paul Martin, D PIT 9 2
Lars Eller, C MTL 8 2
Mike Rupp, LW PIT 9 2
Andreas Nodl, RW PHI 15 2
Nick Boynton, D PHI 15 2
Rob Niedermayer, C BUF 7 2
Adam Hall, RW TB 10 2
Benoit Pouliot, LW MTL 8 2
Nick Spaling, C NSH 10 2
Ryan Johnson, C CHI 9 2
Michael Sauer, D NYR 7 2
Patrick Eaves, RW DET 15 2
Brad Richardson, C LA 7 2
Bryan McCabe, D NYR 7 2
Lee Stempniak, RW PHX 7 2
Toni Lydman, D ANA 10 2
Mark Mancari, RW BUF 7 2
Marc-Andre Gragnani, D BUF 7 2
Yannick Weber, D MTL 8 2
Jack Johnson, D LA 7 2
Victor Hedman, D TB 8 2
Ryan McDonagh, D NYR 7 2
Francois Beauchemin, D ANA 10 2
Kevin Klein, D NSH 10 2
Alec Martinez, D LA 7 2
Travis Moen, LW MTL 8 2
Brian Boyle, C NYR 7 2
Dan Girardi, D NYR 7 2
Steve Kampfer, D BOS 13 2
Blair Betts, C PHI 15 2
Trevor Lewis, C LA 7 2
Craig Adams, RW PIT 9 2
Ruslan Salei, D DET 15 2
Jakub Kindl, D DET 15 2
Chris Conner, RW PIT 9 2
Aaron Rome, D VAN 17 2
Ryan White, C MTL 8 2
Mike Lundin, D TB 10 2
Troy Brouwer, RW CHI 6 2
Niclas Wallin, D SJ 16 2
Paul Mara, D MTL 8 2
Alexei Ponikarovsky, LW LA 7 2
Matt Greene, D LA 7 2
Chris Butler, D BUF 7 2
Jake Dowell, C CHI 9 2
Brooks Orpik, D PIT 9 2

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