Edmonton Trades Cogliano

When I first saw that restricted free agent Andrew Cogliano had been traded from Edmonton to Anaheim for a 2nd round draft pick, my initial reaction was shock. The probability that 2nd pick produces a player as good or better than Cogliano is less than 10%, probably even less than 5% if his career continues for at least a few more years. For the record that is not a blind guess, I am looking at my database of draft picks from 1995 to 2003, the career GP numbers for 2nd round picks, and Cogliano is already ahead of 82% of 2nd round picks if he never plays another NHL game.

All that being said, after 4 NHL seasons it would appear that initial scouting reports that this kid could be a star player in this league were greatly exaggerated. He's a high end 3rd line player, and a mediocre 2nd liner. That's it. He's pretty good at killing penalties, but I do not expect him to ever exceed 50 PTS (he has not topped 40 PTS since his rookie season). He is well known for his speed and work ethic, and I would have definitely expected Cogliano to be a critical building block in the Oilers future. It does hurt his value to be a centerman who is terrible at face-offs, so Anaheim might be advised to move him to the wing.

He is a restricted free agent, but with his age and production should be paid in the $1.5M per season range. I don't think this trade was done to save money, but rather that there just wasn't room for him on Edmonton's roster. As he said after being traded, the team just had too many of the same type of player, and he's exactly right. A 2nd round pick doesn't feel like enough coming back, but a 1st round pick would have been a little too expensive. So if they did not have room for the player, this deal makes more sense because I'm not sure they could have squeezed much more out of another NHL team. A medium range prospect would have been a nice addition to balance out the probabilities, making the trade more fair; if that option was even available.

This is a great addition for Anaheim. Ducks fans should be excited.