Saturday, December 14, 2013

NHL Week 11 Fantasy Hockey Report (2013/14)

Here is my fourth attempt at a weekly fantasy hockey report. My analysis is based largely on Yahoo and ESPN Standard Leagues where your roster of players competes head to head in several categories (in my league it is G, A, PTS, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, Shots, Hits, Blocks, Faceoff Wins) against another roster of players. I look at ownership percentages and determine which players are owned too much, and which are not owned enough; then show you which players have climbed/fallen the most in my player rankings over the last week.

If you have any questions regarding decisions that you are facing in your league, scroll to the bottom of this post and leave a question in the comment section. It will get answered in less than 24 hours (I do have a day job making curling ice and driving a Zamboni). Let me know the scoring parameters of your league, and the decision that you are faced with.

Who you should buy! (players who need to be owned in more leagues)
(Percentages below are ownership rates in Yahoo and ESPN)
Antoine Roussel, Dal - (8% Yahoo, 6% ESPN) This is a player who needs to be owned in more leagues, especially if your league counts penalties and hits. He's becoming one of the league's top agitators, and he also has 5 PTS in his last 6 GP. He can score big goals.
Reilly Smith, Bos - (10% Yahoo, 8% ESPN) The less publicized part of the Tyler Seguin trade has 21 PTS in 31 GP for the Bruins, and is returning strong value to his new team. He is a maybe add in 10 team leagues, and a must add in all deeper formats.
Mikkel Boedker, Pho - (15% Yahoo, 36% ESPN) The player better known for big goals in the playoffs is starting to make some noise in the regular season, and needs to be owned in more leagues.
Valeri Nichushkin, Dal - (11% Yahoo, 13% ESPN) After a slow start to the season, the young Russian is starting to pick up steam. He has 7 PTS in his last 6 GP, and is somebody you really need to keep an eye on if he's available in your league. He has tremendous upside, and should be 100% owned once he reaches his potential.
Kris Versteeg, Chi - (14% Yahoo, 31% ESPN) Since being returned to the Chicago Blackhawks, Versteeg has stepped it up a notch. He is now ownable in 10 team leagues, and a must add in all deeper formats.
Tyler Toffoli, Los - (15% Yahoo, 13% ESPN) We are starting to see the type of player many expected when he was drafted in fantasy leagues this year. It was a shock to see him sent to the minors at the beginning of the season, when he would have been dropped in most leagues. He is ownable in 10 team leagues. If he's available in your league, pick him up.
Derek Roy, Stl - (22% Yahoo, 16% ESPN) If he is available in your league, add him, all leagues, all formats. He is taking advantage of playing with a very talented St. Louis Blues team. We are starting to see production comparable to the old Derek Roy.
Olli Jokinen, Wpg - (11% Yahoo, 8% ESPN) The old veteran is starting to pick up the pace, and has 5 PTS in his last 5 GP. He is a maybe add in 10 team leagues, and a must add in all deeper formats. He should probably be owned in closer to 50% of leagues.
Matt Stajan, Cgy - (1% Yahoo, 1% ESPN) He has improved his production since the lockout shortened season, and can be owned in 10 team leagues if you need a center. He is a must add for deeper leagues, and 1% ownership is way too low.
Mika Zibanejad, Ott - (6% Yahoo, 27% ESPN) It still doesn't make any sense why he was sent to the minors at the start of the season, whether it was for salary cap reasons or for motivation. A must own if you are in a 12 team league or deeper, and somebody to keep an eye on in 10 team standard leagues.
Who you should sell! (players owned in too many leagues)

Jiri Tlusty, Car - (18% Yahoo, 25% ESPN) I'd like to know what the Hell happened to this guy. He was my 40th ranked player in the strike shortened season, and through 11 weeks has been unable to crack the top 300 this season. He has 1 point in his last 7 games, over which time his team has been doing pretty good (certainly no thanks to Jiri). He's barely ownable in 16-18 team leagues. In anything less, he's a must drop.

Cory Conacher, Ott - (5% Yahoo, 12% ESPN) The diminutive forward who took the league by storm as a rookie with the Lightning has cooled off considerably this season. He has just 6 PTS in 31 GP this season, and can/should be dropped in all leagues, all formats.

Michael Grabner, NYI - (9% Yahoo, 26% ESPN) This former Calder nominee continues to be owned in more leagues than he should. You can safely drop Grabner in all leagues, all formats. 29 GP 8 PTS (and zero PTS in his last 7 games) does not justify 26% ownership. He should not be owned in any 10 team leagues. If you are in an 18-20 team league, maybe hang on to him, or dangle him in trade offers to self-hating Canucks fans.

Dustin Byfuglien, Wpg - (99% Yahoo, 100% ESPN) He's not a player that you drop, but sell sell sell!!! If you own him (especially in a league that counts +/-, where he is -12), package him up into several trade offers and see if somebody in your league wants to roll the dice with Big Buff.

Ryan O'Reilly, Col - (48% Yahoo, 92% ESPN) After a strong start to the season, the player with the offer sheet that cost Jay Feester his job has started to slow down (with just 1 point in his last 6 games). He's a player that you should try to trade before dropping, but he can be safely dropped in 10 team leagues, still a must own in deeper leagues. 92% ownership is way too high.

Paul Stastny, Col - (56% Yahoo, 80% ESPN) No points in his last 5 games, it looks like the entire Colorado offense is starting to slow down. The ride might be over for the Avs, and it might be time for fantasy owners to try and sell high on any Avs players they might own (I just sold Landeskog and landed Erik Karlsson in a multi player deal). Stastny is still a must own even in 10 team leagues, but he is very ripe trade bait.

Cody Hodgson, Buf - (44% Yahoo, 79% ESPN) I continue to believe in his talent (am I allowed to say those words without being accused of ripping off Matthew Berry), but since Vanek has left town, Cody's production has dropped. Matt Moulson has not been producing at the Vanek level and is not showing the same chemistry TV had with Hodgson. You can comfortably drop Hodgson in 10 team leagues if there is a big name on your waiver wire, but hold on to him for a little while longer in deeper formats.

Marcus Johansson, Was - (38% Yahoo, 61% ESPN) Great start to the season, but the production has dropped off the map. Just 1 point in his last 6 GP, he is droppable in 10 team leagues, but still ownable in deeper formats. 61% ownership is too high.

Steve Ott, Buf - (12% Yahoo, 31% ESPN) The ship is sinking in Buffalo. You don't want to own anyone on this team. Sell sell sell. Ott is more valuable in a league that counts PIMs and Hits, but if you are in a PTS league, he is not ownable.

Josh Bailey, NYI - (4% Yahoo, 1% ESPN) He has been a huge disappointment for the Islanders this season, and has no points in his last 6 games. He is barely ownable in an 18 team league. So if you own him in anything less than an 18 teamer, let him go.

Who jumped the most spots in my player rankings this week?

1) Michal Handzus, Chi - (535 to 390)
2) Steve Olesky, Was - (412 to 322)
3) Kevan Miller, Bos - (687 to 601)
4) Kyle Clifford, Los - (460 to 374)
5) Paul Gaustad, Nas - (406 to 326)
6) Willie Mitchell, Los - (423 to 345)
7) Jordan Nolan, Los - (497 to 425)
8) Kimmo Timonen, Phi - (290 to 224)
9) Daniel Winnik, Ana - (331 to 266)
10) Matt Belesky, Ana - (539 to 474)

Who fell the most in my rankings this week? (but still played at least 4 games in the last 2 weeks)
1) Shawn Horcoff, Dal - (328 to 361)
2) Daniel Briere, Mon - (332 to 364)
3) Josh Bailey, NYI - (363 to 393)
4) Ray Whitney, Dal - (421 to 450)
5) David Desharnais, Mon - (278 to 306)
6) Justin Fontaine, Min - (372 to 399)
7) Craig Adams, Pit - (371 to 398)
8) Andrei Loktionov, NJ - (431 to 458)
9) Shawn Matthias, Fla - (366 to 392)
10) Matt Read, Phi -(147 to 171)

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