Friday, December 20, 2013

NHL Week 12 Fantasy Hockey Report (2013/14)

Here is my fifth attempt at a weekly fantasy hockey report. My analysis is based largely on Yahoo and ESPN Standard Leagues where your roster of players competes head to head in several categories (in my league it is G, A, PTS, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, Shots, Hits, Blocks, Faceoff Wins) against another roster of players. I look at ownership percentages and determine which players are owned too much, and which are not owned enough; then show you which players have climbed/fallen the most in my player rankings over the last week.

If you have any questions regarding decisions that you are facing in your league, scroll to the bottom of this post and leave a question in the comment section. It will get answered in less than 24 hours (I do have a day job making curling ice and driving a Zamboni). Let me know the scoring parameters of your league, and the decision that you are faced with.

Who you should buy! (players who need to be owned in more leagues)
(Percentages below are ownership rates in Yahoo and ESPN)

Andrew Cogliano, Ana - (8% Yahoo, 6% ESPN) In his last 10 GP, this Duck has scored 9 PTS. He is a must add in all leagues, all formats. Anaheim has an exciting mix of players, including 2 of the best players in the league with Perry and Getzlaf. If Cogliano is available in your league, go and add him right now.

Mats Zuccarello, NYR - (17% Yahoo, 72% ESPN) It is taking Yahoo leagues longer to figure out what ESPN leagues seem to already understand. Add Zuccarello. The injury depleted Rangers are struggling, which is giving Mats an opportunity for more ice time and more production (including Power Play). 10 PTS in his last 11 GP makes him the leading scorer on the team over that span.

Sergei Gonchar, Dal - (55% Yahoo, 50% ESPN) It was a brutal start to the season for this perennial offensive machine, but now he has 8 PTS in his last 11 GP (after 4 PTS in his previous 22 GP). IT'S ALIVE!!! If you want to see it a little bit longer, that's fine, but he can be comfortably added in most leagues.

Brian Gionta, Mon - (6% Yahoo, 20% ESPN) He is starting to pick up the pace after a slow start, with 8 PTS in his last 12 GP. He is a maybe add in 10 team leagues, and a must add in all deeper formats.

Daniel Winnik, Ana - (1% Yahoo, 0% ESPN) He has scored 7 PTS in his last 10 GP, and is a must add in deeper leagues. In 10 team leagues, he's worth keeping an eye on, but is not yet somebody you must have. The Ducks are hot and their secondary scoring has picked up considerably.

Cam Atkinson, Clb - (11% Yahoo, 7% ESPN) He has 8 PTS in his last 10 GP, and should be owned in more leagues than he is currently. He is a must add in deeper leagues, and a maybe add in 10 team leagues. Certainly if you cheer for short players, Cam has to be on your favourites list. At 5'7, he's a little person a big man's world.

Dylan Olsen, Fla - (4% Yahoo, 4% ESPN) His new career with the Florida Panthers is just 13 games old, but he already has 8 PTS. He is a must add in deeper leagues, and somebody to keep an eye on in smaller leagues. Certainly if he can sustain this scoring pace he would be a must add in all leagues, although odds are his production will eventually slow down.

Roman Josi, Nsh - (10% Yahoo, 70% ESPN) He is back from injury and has scored 7 PTS in his last 9 GP. It looks like ESPN leagues have been faster to respond to this news than Yahoo, but at this pace he is nearly ownable in all formats. He's worth an add if you need a guy. Some of the shine has fallen off Seth Jones, and Josi is filling that void.

Michael Ryder, NJ - (11% Yahoo, 39% ESPN) With 8 PTS in his last 11 GP, Ryder is cruising back towards ownable in 10 team leagues. If you need a guy who can score goals, this is a tempting target. The Devils offense has been improving in recent weeks, and you may as well ride the wave.

Mark Scheifele, Wpg - (6% Yahoo, 2% ESPN) Don't look now, but the Jets youngster suddenly has 9 PTS in his last 10 GP and is starting to deliver some of that offense that Jets fans and management have been hoping for. He is quickly becoming addable in 10 team leagues, and is a must add in all deeper formats.

Who you should sell! (players owned in too many leagues)

Justin Schultz, Edm - (72% Yahoo, 61% ESPN) The ownership numbers are slowly starting to come down as fantasy owners begin to realize what has to already be painfully obvious to the Oilers. This player was substantially overrated early in his career. After that whole media circus around his signing and his remarkable production in the AHL during the lockout, this kid has more in common with Andy Delmore than Paul Coffey. He has 2 PTS in his last 11 GP, and is a -15.

Marc-Eddy Vlasic, SJ - (41% Yahoo, 67% ESPN) Marek and Wyshynski recently proclaimed that Vlasic should make the Canadian Olympic team, and if he does, I will shit my pants. Vlasic's production has cooled considerably in recent weeks, and if you can find a buyer in your league who listens to the Marek Vs Wyshynski podcast, sell him for more than he's worth.

Dion Phaneuf, Tor - (96% Yahoo, 100% ESPN) Not a player you can drop, but definitely a guy you should try to shop. There is usually 1 or more Leaf fans in every fantasy league. Leaf fans are like locusts. He's one of those guys whose names is bigger than his production (though he has more value in a league that counts hits).

Ted Purcell, TB - (47% Yahoo, 51% ESPN) He is now safely droppable in 10 team leagues, with just 2 PTS in his last 10 GP. In deeper leagues, you can either hold on or try to sell. He started the season strong, but has been hurting you lately. He doesn't have quite the name value of some of the other guys on this list, but there is a chance you might find a buyer.

Mike Fisher, Nsh - (4% Yahoo, 12% ESPN) He has not scored a point in 6 games, and is no longer ownable in a 10 team league. He has some value in deeper leagues, especially those which count face-off wins; but if you're in a straight up points league, there is not much value here.

Chris Neil, Ott - (11% Yahoo, 15% ESPN) The offensive upside that we used to see in Chris Neil is no longer there, but he will still get you penalty minutes. If you are keeping him around just for the odd fight, there might be better options on your waiver wire. He has 1 point in his last 12 GP. I prefer to find goons who can contribute in more categories than just PIMs or Hits (like my man Antoine Roussell).

Brendan Gallagher, Mon - (47% Yahoo, 91% ESPN) After an excellent start to the season, Gallagher has gone ice cold in December. He has 2 PTS in his last 12 GP. If you own him, you're probably feeling the pain already, and you should consider packaging him up into trade offers. He is falling fast, and is closing in on the "barely ownable in 10 team leagues" threshold.

David Clarkson, Tor - (17% Yahoo, 51% ESPN) The production certainly hasn't been there, but many people are still holding on to him. Eventually he will hit a hot streak as Clarkson always does, at which point his ownership will probably explode back up to 100%, but he's not returning the value of where he was drafted. He is safe to drop in 10 team leagues, or you can wait until the first game he scores 2 goals, then package him up in trade offers to Leaf fans (chances are if you currently own him, then you are probably a Leafs fan).

Dany Heatley, Min - (42% Yahoo, 5% ESPN) If he's on your roster, drop him, unless maybe you are in an 18 team league. He has to be the most overpaid player in the NHL this season, on pace for under 25 PTS, he has by far the worst +/- (-9) on a team currently sitting in a playoff spot. He has 3 PTS in his last 11 GP. He won't be getting $6M per season on his next contract, guaranteed.

Jakub Kindl, Det - (3% Yahoo, 0% ESPN) The last 3% of people holding on to Kindl in Yahoo leagues can go ahead and drop him. He's garbage, and this is coming from a Red Wings fan.

Who jumped the most spots in my player rankings this week?

1) Sergei Gonchar, Dal - (448 to 309)

2) Matt Irwin, SJ - (437 to 335)

3) Mark Sheifele, WPG - (316 to 221)

4) Anton Volchenkov, NJ - (446 to 353)

5) Nikolai Kulemin, Tor - (460 to 376)

6) Peter Holland, Tor - (538 to 455)

7) Paul Byron, Cgy - (627 to 547)

8) Chris Stewart, Stl - (237 to 159)

9) Ray Whitney, Dal - (450 to 372)

10) Jakub Voracek, Phi - (274 to 199)

Who fell the most in my rankings this week? (but still played at least 4 games in the last 2 weeks)
1) Joakim Andersson, Det - (357 to 432)

2) Jakub Kindl, Det - (344 to 401)

3) Sam Gagner, Edm - (346 to 400)

4) Sven Baertschi, Cgy - (382 to 430)

5) Vernon Fiddler, Dal - (354 to 399)

6) Dany Heatley, Min - (362 to 430)

7) Manny Malhotra, Car - (371 to 410)

8) Willie Mitchell, LA - (345 to 384)

9) Josh Bailey, NYI - (393 to 431)

10) Ryan Smyth, Edm - (349 to 385)

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