Monday, January 13, 2014

NHL Week 15 Fantasy Hockey Report 2014

Here is my 7th attempt at a weekly fantasy hockey report. My analysis is based largely on Yahoo and ESPN Standard Leagues where your roster of players competes head to head in several categories (in my league it is G, A, PTS, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, Shots, Hits, Blocks, Faceoff Wins) against another roster of players. I look at ownership percentages and determine which players are owned too much, and which are not owned enough; then show you which players have climbed/fallen the most in my player rankings over the last week.

If you have any questions regarding decisions that you are facing in your league, scroll to the bottom of this post and leave a question in the comment section. It will get answered in less than 24 hours (I do have a day job making curling ice and driving a Zamboni). Let me know the scoring parameters of your league, and the decision that you are faced with.

Who you should buy! (players who need to be owned in more leagues)
(Percentages below are ownership rates in Yahoo and ESPN fantasy hockey leagues)

Nathan Horton, Clb - (84% ESPN, 32% Yahoo) If for whatever reason Horton is not owned in your league, no matter what your league size or format, he is back from his injury and is must own in all formats.

Jordan Staal, Car - (71% ESPN, 45% Yahoo) After a terrible start, Staal has finally started scoring some points and has cracked my top 100 players in the NHL for the 1st time this season.

Adam Henrique, NJ - (22% ESPN, 9% Yahoo) Henrique has really picked up his production as the season has progressed, where he is now close to cracking the top 100 players in the league list. His ownership should be in the 80% range with 8 PTS in 9 GP since Christmas.

Nino Niederreiter, Min - (7% ESPN, 14% Yahoo) Definitely a player that needs to be owned in more leagues, as he creeps into the must own status zone. He has 8 PTS in the 9 games since Christmas, rebounding nicely from an abysmal experience in Long Island.

Vladimir Sobotka, StL - (48% ESPN, 11% Yahoo) He has 9 PTS in 7 games since Christmas, and should be owned in all 10 team leagues or deeper. The Blues have remarkable scoring depth, and this guy is part of the reason why.

Ondrej Palat, TB - (57% ESPN, 10% Yahoo) He has been a point per game player since Christmas and is getting 19 minutes per game in ice time. He is ownable in 10 team leagues, and a must add in all deeper formats.

Derick Brassard, NYR - (43% ESPN, 27% Yahoo) Brassard was fantastic for the Rangers last season after being acquired in the Marian Gaborik trade. After a slow start to this season, Brassard has 7 PTS in 9 GP since Christmas, and is definitely worthy of consideration in 10 team leagues.

Tyler Johnson, TB - (62% ESPN, 9% Yahoo) If you enjoy cheering for the little people, you'll love Tyler Johnson. The diminutive player has 7 PTS in his last 9 games and has reached proper ownership in ESPN leagues, but Yahoo leagues need to catch up.

Alex Killorn, TB - (32% ESPN, 18% Yahoo) 7 PTS in 9 games since Christmas, Killorn is a decent depth player, even for 10 team leagues. A must own in all deeper formats.

Jason Demers, SJ - (33% ESPN, 11% Yahoo) 7 PTS in 9 GP since Christmas is great production for a defenseman. If you need a guy and Demers is available in your league, he's worth adding in most formats.

Who you should sell! (players owned in too many leagues, or that should be traded)

Steve Downie, Phi - (38% ESPN, 27% Yahoo) If your league counts hits and/or penalty minutes he is worth a roster spot, but is droppable in most points leagues. He has zero PTS over his last 8 GP since Christmas.

Antoine Vermette, Pho - (48% ESPN, 23% Yahoo) If your league counts face off wins, he is worth a roster spot, but you can comfortably drop him in points leagues if there is a better guy you would like to add. He has 1 point in 8 GP since Christmas.

David Clarkson, Tor - (39% ESPN, 13% Yahoo) Pointless since the Christmas break, this has been a very sad first season in Toronto for the prized free agent. 8 PTS  in 34 GP is not what the Leafs are paying for. He should really only be owned in deep leagues that count Hits and PIMs.

Dustin Brown, LA - (89% ESPN, 71% Yahoo) Having been named to Team USA has certainly raised his profile, but he is currently overvalued. He is still producing in Hits and Shots, but is not producing PTS like he has in past years. 2 PTS in 8 GP since Christmas is not what you're looking for from a guy like this.

Mike Santorelli, Van - (46% ESPN, 12% Yahoo) It is starting to look like the chariot has turned back into a pumpkin, but I have to say that Santorelli maintained his position as a top 100 player far longer than I thought he would. Problem is, with just 2 PTS since Christmas, the offense has been slipping.

John Carlson, Wsh - (100% ESPN, 70% Yahoo)  Being named to Team USA has increased his ownership, despite a decline in his production, scoring just 1 point in the last 8 GP since Christmas. If demand goes up as production goes down, I would advise you to shop him around in a few trade offers.

Tomas Fleischmann, Fla - (42% ESPN, 36% Yahoo) That ownership is too high for a player with just 2 PTS since Christmas. He is easily droppable in 10 team leagues, but in those deeper than 14 teams, he should be owned.

Dainius Zubrus, NJ - (4% ESPN, 3% Yahoo) The corpse of Dainius Zubrus has no points in 9 games since Christmas, and is droppable in most leagues. He has scored this season in bunches, he is fun to own when things are going good, but terrible in between sprints.

Tyler Toffoli, LA - (6% ESPN, 10% Yahoo) With no points in 8 GP since Christmas, it looks like the ride is over for Toffoli owners. If he's not scoring, he's not worth owning. Add to that the risk that he gets sent back to the minors, and he is only ownable in the deepest leagues.

Who jumped the most spots in my player rankings since Last Week?

1) Calvin de Haan, NYI - (656 to 518)

2) Nathan Horton, Clb - (782 to 640)

3) Ryane Clowe, NJ - (669 to 573)

4) Rick Nash, NYR - (277 to 191)

5) Dany Heatley, Min - (399 to 315)

6) Justin Fontaine, Min - (401 to 319)

7) Michael Ryder, NJ - (266 to 188)

8) Charlie Coyle, Min - (374 to 298)

9) Michael Grabner, NYI - (363 to 288)

10) Matt Belesky, Ana - (379 to 305)

Who fell the most in my rankings since Last Week? (but still played at least 6 games since Christmas)
1) Eric Nystrom, Nas - (348 to 389)

2) Jacob Trouba, Wpg - (310 to 345)

3) Marc Methot, Ott - (235 to 268)

4) Zack Bogosian, Wpg - (368 to 398)

5) Mika Zibanejad, Ott - (232 to 262)

6) Matt Irwin, SJ - (292 to 322)

7) David Savard, Clb - (322 to 352)

8) Alex Goligoski, Dal - (250 to 279)

9) Milan Michalek, Ott - (296 to 324)

10) Joe Vitale, Pit (298 to 326)

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