Tuesday, January 7, 2014

NHL Week 14 Fantasy Hockey Report 2014

Here is my sixth attempt at a weekly fantasy hockey report. My analysis is based largely on Yahoo and ESPN Standard Leagues where your roster of players competes head to head in several categories (in my league it is G, A, PTS, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, Shots, Hits, Blocks, Faceoff Wins) against another roster of players. I look at ownership percentages and determine which players are owned too much, and which are not owned enough; then show you which players have climbed/fallen the most in my player rankings over the last week.

If you have any questions regarding decisions that you are facing in your league, scroll to the bottom of this post and leave a question in the comment section. It will get answered in less than 24 hours (I do have a day job making curling ice and driving a Zamboni). Let me know the scoring parameters of your league, and the decision that you are faced with.

Who you should buy! (players who need to be owned in more leagues)
(Percentages below are ownership rates in Yahoo and ESPN)

Jussi Jokinen, Pit - (87% ESPN, 35% Yahoo) Jussi is a player who tends to run hot and cold, but right now he's hot and any Penguin on a hot streak is worth adding. When he dries up, you can drop him, but ride the wave.

Chris Stewart, STL - (67% ESPN, 57% Yahoo) He is turning into one of the league's best power forwards, and has 11 PTS over his last 12 GP.

Vladimir Tarasenko, STL - (68% ESPN, 42% Yahoo) The Russian phenom needs to be owned in 100% of leagues.

Saku Koivu, STL - (9% ESPN, 5% Yahoo) He's worth a flyer in deeper leagues. You may not have noticed his 10 PTS over his last 10 games.

Sean Bergenheim, Fla (6% ESPN, 2% Yahoo) After last season's attempt by the Panthers to suspend Bergenheim for getting injured during the lockout, defeated by a Bergenheim grievance that he was hurt in the NHL, it looks like the animosity is behind them. Bergenheim is scoring goals. He has 7 PTS in his last 10 GP, most of those being goals. He's worth considering in 10 team leagues, and a must add in all deeper formats.

Aleksander Barkov, Fla - (9% ESPN, 8% Yahoo) Barkov started slowly, but has become the Panthers best and most productive player. Kudos to you if you had the patience to wait out the slow start, but if he's available in your league, you should consider adding him.

Kyle Palmieri, Ana - (2% ESPN, 4% Yahoo) A sleeper for deeper leagues, scoring at a point per game over his last 9 GP.

Patric Hornqvist, Nsh - (34% ESPN, 15% Yahoo) He has been a pleasant surprise for the Predators this season and needs to be owned in more leagues.

Erik Cole, Dal - (10% ESPN, 4% Yahoo) He phoned in the first 2 months of the season, but has been producing lately. He has a ton of skill when his heart is in the right place.

Brayden Schenn, Phi - (36% ESPN, 38% Yahoo) The Flyers offense is clicking again, thanks in large part to Claude Giroux. This has filtered through the roster, creating more opportunities for everybody (LeCavalier notwithstanding).

Who you should sell! (players owned in too many leagues, or that should be traded)

Andrew Shaw, Chi - (30% ESPN, 25% Yahoo) Production has suddenly dried up, so it might be worth either selling or buying low. 1 point in 11 GP is not sufficient for 10 team leagues.

Mike Richards, LA - (100% ESPN, 74% Yahoo) 1 point over his last 11 GP is not adequate for a player of his ownership. Sell, sell, sell. Might not be droppable yet, but he is easily tradeable.

Lars Eller, Mon - (26% ESPN, 31% Yahoo) Things were bad enough before Alex Galchenyuk broke his hand. Eller has been a huge disappointment over the last month after such a terrific start to the season.

Nazem Kadri, Tor - (90% ESPN, 67% Yahoo) He is not the same player that he was last season. Not yet droppable, but definitely somebody you should be trying to sell.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Pho - (100% ESPN, 91% Yahoo) His production has dried up in recent weeks. He's not droppable, but it's worth plugging him into a few trade offers while his value is still relatively high.

Dustin Penner, Ana - (47% ESPN, 39% Yahoo) Just 1 point in his last 8 GP, this is not the same player from earlier in the season.  I'm not sure if he has much value on the trade market, but he can be dropped in 10 team leagues for the right guy.

Justin Faulk, Car - (93% ESPN, 19% Yahoo) He's no Keith Yandle, that's for sure. Since being named to Team USA, his value right now has to be a little bit inflated. Worth attempting to trade.

Vincent LeCavalier, Phi - (55% ESPN, 49% Yahoo) It has been a very disappointing season for LeCavalier, who is making more money than he's earning (again). Sell him or drop him, I'm cool with either choice.

Alex Galchenyuk, Mon - (70% ESPN, 67% Yahoo) He made my shit list for the week before I found out that he broke his hand. Normally I don't recommend trying to sell damaged goods, but I do think you can safely drop him in 10 team leagues if you don't have an IR slot.

Jason Spezza, Ott - (100% ESPN, 94% Yahoo) 1 point in his last 8 games is not the production you wanted when you drafted this guy. His name still has a significant value on the trade market.

Who jumped the most spots in my player rankings since Christmas?

1) Saku, Koivu, Ana - (373 to 199)

2) Alex Semin, Car - (376 to 239)

3) Jacob Trouba, Wpg - (441 to 310)

4) Mike Fisher, Nas - (219 to 104)

5) Erik Cole, Dal - (341 to 228)

6) Ryan Smyth, Edm - (412 to 303)

7) Manny Malhotra, Car - (417 to 315)

8) Matt Belesky, Ana - (474 to 379)

9) Erik Condra, Ott - (510 to 419)

10) James Neal, Pit - (146 to 57)

Who fell the most in my rankings since Christmas? (but still played at least 4 games over the last 2 weeks)
1) Mike Cammalleri, CGY - (208 to 260)

2) Robyn Regehr, LA - (304 to 350)

3) Dustin Penner, Ana (73 to 118)

4) Zemgus Girgenson, Buf - (309 to 354)

5) Jiri Hudler, Cgy - (92 to 134)

6) Eric Nystrom, Nas - (307 - 348)

7) Ron Hainsey, Car - (318 - 359)

8) Matt Stajan, Cgy - (194 to 234)

9) Brandon Bollig, Chi (290 to 330)

10) Joe Colborne, Cgy (393 to 433)

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