Monday, June 18, 2018

Predicting NHL 2018 Free Agent Outcomes

Below are my predictions for upcoming NHL free agent contracts for the summer of 2018. This was done by compiling a list of over 3500 players and their stats the year before they become a free agent, and what contract they got in the got (in the salary cap era). What do players with similar ice time, production and age get when they become free agents? Then that range of outcomes is used to calculate a mean and median for term and salary to make a final prediction. Some of these are very difficult to predict, more so with the restricted free agents. It's easier to make open market predictions.

These are mostly an average of comparable outcomes, but you can have a 40% chance of a 2 year deal, a 40% chance of a 6 year deal, and a 5% chance of a 4 year deal; where the average is 4 years because it's half way between the most probable outcomes (but itself unlikely). In this prediction list, I'm not always choosing one extreme or the other, but splitting the difference to minimize how much I'll be off by.

AAV stands for the average annual salary.

UFA FORWARDS

The UFA's tend to be easier to predict that RFAs. In the case of John Tavares, he can get whatever he wants on the market. But he may accept slightly less money to play on a better team. There will be somebody offering him a $12M average annual salary (AAV), though he may not want to play for that organization. It's hard to do a comparables analysis of a player on the level of Tavares. He doesn't have a lot of contemporaries at his skill level that tested the UFA market at his age.

PLAYER AGE TERM AAV TOTAL
John Tavares 27 7 10.5 73.5
David Perron 30 5 5.0 25.0
James van Riemsdyk 29 4 5.0 20.0
Paul Stastny 32 3 5.0 15.0
James Neal 30 3 4.0 12.0
Riley Nash 29 3 3.0 9.0
Tyler Bozak 32 2 4.0 8.0
Patrick Maroon 30 2 2.5 5.0
Leo Komarov 31 2 2.1 4.2
Derek Ryan 31 2 2.1 4.2
Michael Grabner 30 2 2.0 4.0
Blake Comeau 32 2 2.0 4.0
Joe Thornton 38 1 3.4 3.4
Rick Nash 33 1 3.0 3.0
Matt Calvert 28 2 1.5 3.0
Jay Beagle 32 2 1.5 3.0
Antoine Roussel 28 2 1.2 2.4
Thomas Vanek 34 1 2.0 2.0
Tomas Plekanec 35 1 2.0 2.0
Cody McLeod 33 2 1.0 2.0
Ryan Reaves 31 2 1.0 2.0
Valtteri Filppula 34 1 1.9 1.9
Kyle Brodziak 34 1 1.8 1.8
Antoine Vermette 35 1 1.5 1.5
Mark Letestu 33 1 1.4 1.4
Brad Richardson 33 1 1.4 1.4
Chris Kunitz 38 1 1.3 1.3
Jason Chimera 39 1 1.1 1.1
Matt Cullen 41 1 1.0 1.0
Chris Stewart 30 1 1.0 1.0
Lance Bouma 28 1 1.0 1.0
Matt Stajan 34 1 1.0 1.0
Lee Stempniak 35 1 1.0 1.0
Jussi Jokinen 35 1 1.0 1.0
Jannik Hansen 32 1 1.0 1.0
Joel Ward 37 1 0.9 0.9
Torrey Mitchell 33 1 0.9 0.9
Jordan Nolan 28 1 0.8 0.8
Dominic Moore 37 1 0.8 0.8
JT Brown 27 1 0.8 0.8


RFA FORWARDS

There will surely be more contracts in the 4-7 year range for this group. The range of outcomes for comparable RFAs is diverse. Sometimes you'll see a 30% chance at a 2 year contract or a 20% chance at a 5-6 year contract. In most of those cases I'm just splitting the difference instead of choosing between the short and long term options.

PLAYER AGE TERM AAV TOTAL
Dylan Larkin 21 6 6.0 36.0
William Karlsson 25 6 6.0 36.0
Jason Zucker 26 4 5.0 20.0
William Nylander 22 4 5.0 20.0
Mark Stone 26 3 5.8 17.4
JT Miller 25 3 4.5 13.5
Tomas Hertl 24 3 4.0 12.0
Vladislav Namestnikov 25 3 4.0 12.0
Kevin Hayes 26 3 4.0 12.0
Tom Wilson 24 3 4.0 12.0
Elias Lindholm 23 3 3.5 10.5
Anthony Mantha 23 3 3.5 10.5
Sam Reinhart 22 3 3.5 10.5
Boone Jenner 24 3 3.0 9.0
Ryan Spooner 26 2 3.0 6.0
Brock Nelson 26 2 3.0 6.0
Riley Sheahan 26 2 2.5 5.0
Ryan Strome 24 2 2.5 5.0
Andreas Athanasiou 23 2 2.2 4.4
Devin Shore 23 2 2.0 4.0
Jared McCann 22 2 2.0 4.0
Sven Baertschi 25 2 2.0 4.0
Nick Ritchie 22 2 2.0 4.0
Joel Armia 25 2 1.8 3.6
Jimmy Vesey 25 2 1.8 3.6
Phillip Danault 25 2 1.7 3.4
Markus Granlund 25 2 1.5 3.0
Miles Wood 22 2 1.5 3.0
Ryan Hartman 23 2 1.5 3.0
Mark Jankowski 23 2 1.5 3.0
Anthony Duclair 22 2 1.5 3.0
Adam Lowry 25 2 1.4 2.8
Dmitrij Jaskin 25 2 1.3 2.6
Drake Caggiula 23 2 1.2 2.4
Jake Virtanen 21 2 1.2 2.4
Tobias Rieder 25 1 2.2 2.2
Nail Yakupov 24 2 1.0 2.0
Matt Nieto 25 1 1.4 1.4
Nick Shore 25 1 1.1 1.1
Joakim Nordström 26 1 0.9 0.9

UFA DEFENSEMEN

John Carlson is in a similar situation to Tavares, and should get at least one offer at $12M+. Would he take less to play for a better team? It's possible, but he did just win the Stanley Cup, so he might not be as desperate to win right away as JT. There a really good chance he's taking the best offer. Kempny is a tough one to judge. His regular season numbers suggest a 2 year deal in the $1.5M range, but his playoff performance is likely to earn him significantly more than that.
PLAYER AGE TERM AAV TOTAL
John Carlson 28 7 12.0 84.0
Michal Kempný 27 4 4.0 16.0
Mike Green 32 3 4.5 13.5
John Moore 27 3 3.5 10.5
Luca Sbisa 28 3 3.5 10.5
Jack Johnson 31 3 3.0 9.0
Nick Holden 31 3 2.5 7.5
Brandon Manning 28 2 2.5 5.0
Dan Hamhuis 35 2 2.5 5.0
Ian Cole 29 2 2.5 5.0
Thomas Hickey 29 2 2.1 4.2
Calvin De Haan 27 2 2.1 4.2
Luke Schenn 28 2 1.5 3.0
Christian Folin 27 2 1.5 3.0
Alexei Emelin 32 1 2.0 2.0
Johnny Oduya 36 1 1.4 1.4
Kevin Connauton 28 1 1.3 1.3
Toby Enström 33 1 1.3 1.3
Josh Gorges 33 1 1.0 1.0
Roman Polák 32 1 1.0 1.0
Andrej Sustr 27 1 0.8 0.8

RFA DEFENSEMEN

Like with the RFA forwards, this is a tough group to predict. It's worth pointing out that I gave Trouba and Ceci lower term than their comparable averages, simply because I don't think they want to lock in 5+ years with their current franchise.

PLAYER AGE TERM AAV TOTAL
Matt Dumba 23 6 6.0 36.0
Noah Hanifin 21 5 4.2 21.0
Darnell Nurse 23 4 4.0 16.0
Colin Miller 25 4 4.0 16.0
Shea Theodore 22 3 4.0 12.0
Brandon Montour 24 3 3.5 10.5
Brady Skjei 24 3 3.1 9.3
Jacob Trouba 24 2 4.5 9.0
Joshua Morrissey 23 3 3.0 9.0
Cody Ceci 24 2 3.6 7.2
Joel Edmundson 24 2 2.7 5.4
Ryan Pulock 23 2 2.5 5.0
Patrik Nemeth 26 2 2.5 5.0
Troy Stecher 24 2 2.0 4.0
Ryan Murray 24 2 1.7 3.4
Matthew Benning 24 2 1.5 3.0
Jamie Oleksiak 25 2 1.5 3.0
Robert Hägg 23 2 1.5 3.0
Matt Grzelcyk 24 2 1.3 2.6
Brandon Davidson 26 1 1.4 1.4
Alex Petrovic 26 1 1.3 1.3

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