2021/22 NHL Week 8 Betting Report

Welcome to my Week 8 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. Click here to see my Week 7 Betting Report.
 
My Weekly Profit: -$450
My Season Profit: $8,342
 
My week 8 had a peculiar start when the Winnipeg Jets were -290 favorites over Arizona, and for the first time this entire season, I laid a bet on Coyotes to win. It wasn’t necessarily intuition, just that the line made no sense with the Jets embroiled in a 1-5 skid. The Yotes picked up the win on the back of a 46-save Karel Vejmelka shutout. It was a strong start to my week until the Red Wings upset the Bruins in Boston.

Catastrophe struck on Thursday night when I laid a $1,000 bet on the Carolina puckline -1.5 goals versus the free-falling Ottawa Senators. The Sens actually won, despite losing 12 of their previous 13 games. That same evening, I laid big money on the Capitals to beat the Blackhawks in Washington, and Chicago pulled off an unlikely upset. $1,500 flushed down the drain. That’s also when I noticed that the Blackhawks have been good lately, helping me win my next 2 Chicago Bets (one of which was a Hawks loss that I bet +1.5 goals).

Note to self: The Chicago Blackhawks have won 7 of their last 10 games and Marc-Andre Fleury has a .944 SV% over the last 2 weeks. #NHLBetting

— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) December 4, 2021

When the Colorado Avalanche (with a healthy MacKinnon) played Ottawa on Saturday, it seemed like the perfect opportunity to win back my previous losses. Those pesky Sens pulled off another big upset, which surely landed massive profit for Sportsbooks. The one team that prevented my week from full-blown disaster was the Arizona Coyotes, who lost by more than a goal to both Minnesota and Vegas following that victory over Winnipeg.

 

My Week 8 Results

*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.

 

The unders were a more profitable bet in the first quarter than overs, but in week 8 those high scoring games came surging back and recaptured the lead (see chart below). If you bet $100 on every “Over” this week, you came out ahead $743 led by 1) Minnesota, 2) New Jersey, 3) Toronto, 4) Anaheim. The Leafs had been a strong under team in the first quarter, but the goal scoring started to pop in week 8 (at both ends).

The success of the unders in previous weeks did not overtly influence my monetary decision making, as I was close to 50-50 on O-U in both week 7 and 8. The Kraken overs went 0-3 in week 7, but my streak of consecutive over bets on Seattle never ended and they went 3-0 in week 8. Overs had a robust week, and not just because of the Kraken. It was the most profitable betting category of the week.
 

New York Ranger unders also produced a nice return this week, but an injury to Igor Shesterkin may jeopardize the sustainability of that trend in the near-term. The next best under team of the week was Boston, who has provided the perfect blend of good team defense with limited goal scoring (in part because Brad Marchand played zero games due to suspension).
 

My Team of the Week: Arizona Coyotes, +$1,501

The Arizona Coyotes had a big lead for my top team of the week entering Saturday’s games, thanks to their win against Winnipeg and convincing loss to Vegas. I had been reducing my Yotes pessimism prior to week 8, reducing my bet size on them to lose. I had previously Tweeted “can’t stop, won’t stop betting Arizona to lose”, but broke my vow in week 8. That win over the Jets involved an unreal goaltending performance, so it’s hard to pat myself on the back.

That win also did not suddenly solicit new love for the team, as I made a $500 bet on Minnesota to win -1.5 goals in the Yotes next game, which covered. Then Arizona played Vegas, and I went $500 moneyline and $500 puckline on the Golden Knights, clinching another winning wager. If you asked me 7 days ago who was the best team to bet against, I would have said the Ottawa Senators, but that blew up in my face.

My second best team of the week was Vegas, due in large part to their victory over Arizona.

 

My Worst Team of the Week: Ottawa Senators, -$1,817

As of Friday night, the Carolina Hurricanes and Ottawa Senators were leading the race to be my worst team of the week, in large part due to the Canes costly loss to Ottawa. That did not deter me from wagering another $500 on the Canes to beat Buffalo, or from laying $1,000 on Colorado to beat Ottawa -1.5 goals, both on Saturday. The Hurricanes did their part to win back some of my money, but those lowly Sens managed another upset and actually defeated the Avalache, who recently got Nathan MacKinnon back in the line-up. Note to self: be careful never to wager too much cash on Jonas Johansson to win a hockey game ever again.

The Hurricanes still cost me -$1,041 despite beating Buffalo. They ranked #2 in my power rankings at the end of week 6. By the end of week 8, they ranked #22. I had been laying big money on Cane wins, so a 2-week stretch where they won 2 of 7 against beatable teams was calamitous for my portfolio. Even as I’m seeing these numbers, I don’t know that I’ve stopped believing. They may continue soliciting my interest.

Note to self: The Carolina Hurricanes may not be as good as I thought they were. #NHLBetting

— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) December 3, 2021

 
 
My 3 Best Bets of Week 8:                                   Best Market Bets of Week 8:
 
1) Arizona to lose ML+PL: +$1,173                     1) Over: +$743
2) Over: +$747                                                      2) New Jersey to lose ML+PL: +$582
3) Vegas to win ML+PL: +$702                            3) Buffalo to lose ML+PL: +$487
 
My 3 Worst Bets of Week 8:                                Worst Market Bets of Week 8:
 
1) Ottawa to lose ML+PL: -$1,917                       1) Under: -$1,247
2) Colorado to win ML+PL: -$947                       2) Minnesota to lose ML+PL: -$600
3) Carolina to win ML+PL: -$921                        3) Buffalo to win ML+PL: -$600
 
*Both Carolina and Colorado lost to Ottawa
 
 

My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 8: (over/under not included)

 

1) Vegas Golden Knights, (+$702)

2) Minnesota Wild, (+$513)

3) Chicago Blackhawks, (+$409)

 

My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week 8: (over/under not included)

 

1) Colorado Avalanche, (-$947)

2) Carolina Hurricanes, (-$921)

3) Edmonton Oilers, (-$750)

 

My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week 8: (over/under not included)

 

1) Arizona Coyotes, (+$1,173)

2) New York Islanders, (+$473)

3) Montreal Canadiens, (+$438)

 

My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week 8: (over/under not included)

 

1) Ottawa Senators, (-$1,917)

2) Detroit Red Wings, (-$600)

3) Seattle Kraken, (-$600)

 

Team By Team Power Rankings

These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including where the money was won or lost. It’s still a small sample size, but each week my new power rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.