Welcome to my Week 9 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. Click here to see my Week 8 Betting Report.
It’s always uplifting when you start your betting week off with a bang. My Monday was a fun day, with big money laid on Dallas over Arizona and Colorado over Philadelphia, generating over $1,200 profit. A chunk of that was paid back to the bookie on Tuesday, before another big score on Friday with $1,000 bets on the pucklines -1.5 goals for Florida over Arizona and Colorado over Detroit. Jackpot achieved. After Friday’s games, I was up over $2,000 for the week. If you do the math, that also means that my weekend was rough and my success fleeting.
Saturday was a strange confluence of scheduling. There were several good teams on road trips at the same time, leading me to invest disproportionately on visitors. This was actually a larger theme for the week as a whole, with road teams winning 65% by Friday night. They only managed to win 41% over the weekend, finishing the week at 57%. Road favorites performed very well on the puckline -1.5 goals, which isn’t necessarily actionable intelligence, we just had an optimal scheduling alignment if visitors are your thing. Home teams maintained a substantial lead in the season-long numbers. Sure, home moneyline was the big loser of week 9, but that was only because of which teams happened to be playing at home. When those good teams return home, it will swing back the other way.
My Week 9 Results
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
The unders were having a really bad week, at least until the weekend when they went 11-6. That was enough to push the unders back above zero for the week. Other than that blip in the radar, offense had been trending upwards, with week 8 being the highest scoring week of the entire season. The problem is, the sportsbooks know all this too, and those lines have been creeping upwards. Betting over/under on every game is a difficult task, but I’ve managed to produce a small profit. The big winner for me in week 9 was the Colorado overs. Darcy Kuemper was banged up, and the goaltending depth is frightfully shallow until Francouz returns. Effective offense with shaky goaltending is a perfect storm for betting over, and explains why the Philadelphia Flyers were my 2nd best “over” bet.
The Oilers were a popular “over” bet earlier in the
schedule, but the offense dried up in early December, scoring only 5 goals in
their latest 4-game homestand. We had a few scorching goalie runs who helped
the unders fight their way back above zero, led by Jonathan Quick and Thatcher
Demko. The Canucks produced the best “under” returns for my own portfolio this
week, as I’m always quick to jump on the Demko bandwagon when he heats up.
Montreal was my 2nd best “under” bet, but that wasn’t because of
strong goaltending, rather pathetic goal scoring.
Note to self: Thatcher Demko is on a heater, posting a .946 SV% over his last 6 starts, winning 5 of them. #NHLBetting
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) December 12, 2021
My Team of the Week: Arizona Coyotes, +$1,769
Old faithful Arizona had a lucrative start to my week, as they re-established their losing ways and the tank got its hands back on the steering wheel. But when the struggling Flyers visited Arizona as heavy favorites, I only made a small wager on Flyers to win (and didn’t feel good about it). The Flyers did win and covered -1.5 goals, but I only walked away with a small moneyline victory. At this point, I’m only pushing all my chips to the middle when Arizona is facing a really good team. My wounds from their 3-0-1 week 6 have not fully healed.
Colorado was actually leading the race to be my team of the week after they destroyed my Red Wings on Friday. The Avalanche let me down a few times earlier in the schedule, but are heating up. The problem is, everyone knows this is one of the best teams in the league, so getting a fair betting line gets increasingly impossible with each win. The same problem happened last season. My third best team was the Florida Panthers, who were coincidently matched up against Colorado on Sunday. Given that Florida has been significantly worse on the road, my money was on the Avalanche. Avs won 3-2.
My Worst Teams of the Week: Los Angeles Kings and Buffalo Sabres, -$585
There was a tie for my worst team of the week as the LA Kings and Buffalo Sabres each drained $585 from my portfolio. The Kings delved into this predicament with a big 2-1 win over the red-hot Minnesota Wild on Saturday, where Jonathan Quick won his 3rd game in a row with a .975 SV% over that span. With Buffalo, I bet them to win at home versus Anaheim on a back-to-back (which we’ll all remember for an incredible Trevor Zegras goal), then wagered $500 on both the moneyline and puckline for Washington to win/cover on Saturday (Caps only won by a goal). Those two decisions resulted in a majority of my losses, but I also blew $300 on Sabre overs.
Note to self: Jonathan Quick has recorded a .975% over his last 3 games, defeating 2 of the NHL's hottest teams in the process. #NHLBetting #FantasyHockey
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) December 12, 2021
My losses for the week were relatively small. In the absence of a big loser, it was a good week. Though it’s worth pointing out, I would have lost money if not for the futility of the Arizona Coyotes.
2) Colorado to win ML+PL: +$1,147 2) Road favorites -1.5 goals: +$726
3) Home favorites -1.5 goals: +$1,124 3) Detroit to lose ML+PL: +$596
2) LA to lose moneyline: -$500 2) Home favorites -1.5 goals: -$1,017
3) Nashville to lose ML+PL: -$407 3) Vancouver to lose ML+PL: -$657
My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 9: (over/under not
included)
1) Colorado Avalanche, (+$1,147)
2) Florida Panthers, (+$909)
3) Dallas Stars, (+$527)
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week 9: (over/under not
included)
1) Toronto Maple Leafs, (-$350)
2) Washington Capitals, (-$254)
3) Buffalo Sabres, (-$250)
My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week
9: (over/under not included)
1) Arizona Coyotes, (+$1,692)
2) Detroit Red Wings, (+$830)
3) Montreal Canadiens, (+$256)
My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week
9: (over/under not included)
1) Los Angeles Kings, (-$500)
2) Nashville Predators, (-$407)
3) Vancouver Canucks, (-$350)
Team By Team Power
Rankings
These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including
where the money was won or lost. It’s still a small sample size, but each week
my new power rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just
what happened this week.
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