Welcome to my Round 2 NHL Playoff Betting Report, which will cover the entire second round of the NHL playoffs, not just the last 7 days’ worth of games. I’ve switched up my format for the playoffs. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. Click here to see my Round 1 Betting Report, or my 4th Quarter Betting Report.
This report was mostly finished heading the final game of round two on Monday, but it required an overhaul after my streak of consecutive home moneyline victories in the Carolina-New York series was snapped, costing me -$450 (which included a $200 bet on the under). Some of my enthusiastic language needed to be moderated after the Canes choked in game 7 with their first home loss of the playoffs. I still finished the round with a 6.4% rate of return, which is respectable; but not the glorious 15% yield that would have been generated from a 2-1 Carolina win.
My betting results in the 2nd round of the playoffs played out much like the first, bad first week, strong second week (game 7 notwithstanding). One of the reasons for my early struggles was the sudden decrease in goal scoring, which took my over/under algorithm a few games to adapt. By the second week it was back in the black, but barely broke even after losing -$400 on the last 2 unders of Carolina-New York. In my round 1 report, I expressed concern that scoring would decrease in round 2, which is exactly what happened (the 15-goal game one Calgary vs Edmonton notwithstanding). In hindsight it would have been a smart move not to employ the formula for the first 2 games of the round, but I’ve been (mostly) blindly following its advice since its inception, and have come out ahead. Why stop now?
In the battles of home vs road, and favorites vs underdogs (which are quite often the same thing), neither side had a distinct advantage in round 2. Edmonton won their series 4-1, but was only favored once. The Oilers and Lightning really helped drive the underdog numbers (Florida was favored in 3 of 4 games and got swept), while road teams went 5-1 in the Colorado-St. Louis series and home teams went 6-1 in the Carolina-New York series. In the Oilers and Lightning series combined, home teams only went 5-4, producing a net loss if you bet them to win every game (I bet the home team in 7 of those 9 games for a loss).
Underdogs +1.5 goals continued their negative performance in round 2, especially on the road (with the exception of St. Louis going 3 for 3). That intuitively means that home favorites -1.5 goals had a good round. Granted, the home team won by at least 2 goals in 5 of 7 games in the Carolina-New York series, and in all the other series combined favorites -1.5 goals were a net loser. In that series, you would have produced higher returns had you just bet the home team -1.5 goals instead of moneyline (+$354), but you would have struck out on game 7.
Looking ahead at the Conference finals, I’m expecting Colorado to beat Edmonton, but my own bet selection will mostly be based on line price. The Oilers are +150 in game 1 (or at least they were when I logged the wager), so I’m laying down my minimum amount on their moneyline. It’s not because I think they’ll win, but rather, -175 was just too expensive a price to pay for Colorado. I also wagered $200 on the over (6.5 goals at -120). Oiler and Avalanche overs were 7-4 in round 2, and should be a strong wager in round 3.
In the other series, I’m also taking the underdog in game 1, but betting my minimum amount on the Rangers moneyline at home. Tampa is not as good on the road, and I’m anticipating there will be some rust to shake when they get back into action, but they should at least get a split in New York. There’s also a 99% chance I’ll be betting the Lightning when the series shifts to Tampa. Unders will surely be a popular bet with the league’s two best goalies squaring off. You can read more about this series further down the page.
My Round 2 Results
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
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2) Underdogs moneyline: $1,015 2) Home faves -1.5 goals (Car vs NYR): $580
3) Edmonton to win ML: $550 3) Tampa to win ML: $446
New York vs Carolina: +$634
My round 1 strategy with Carolina carried over into round 2, bet the home team every game, and home teams went 6-1. That exquisite predictability made this my most profitable series of round 2, which could have touched even higher heights had Carolina won game 7. The first 5 games all went under, but my algorithm came in hot betting overs because both teams just finished high scoring series. It took me losing 2 overs before hitting the next 3 unders. Of course, as soon as I Tweeted that unders were 5-0 in the series, the next 2 games went over. Even still, had you bet a $100 parlay of home moneyline with the under for all 7 games, you would have walked away with $855.
In the next round, I’m taking the Rangers moneyline in
game 1 as home underdogs, but it’s only a small wager. I’ll have twice as much
money on the under. The centerpiece of Rangers-Lightning will be featuring
arguably the best 2 goaltenders in the world. Perhaps the smartest play would
be to parlay the underdog +1.5 goals with the under in every game. I don’t
actually do parlays in my betting experiment, but do occasionally investigate which ones
would have been profitable in my post-mortem analysis.
Tampa Bay vs Florida: +$473
Coming into this series, I was pessimistic that Tampa could pull off a victory without one of their best players Brayden Point. They struggled to beat the Maple Leafs in 7 games, a series in which Andrei Vasilevskiy posted an uncharacteristically low save percentage. Despite valid reasons to be concerned, the defending champions swept the President’s Trophy winners in 4 games. Game one my money was on the Panthers. I came back with the Panthers for game 2 because home "zig zags" had been performing well in the playoffs. But when the series went back to Tampa with the Lightning up 2-0, my money was on them for the last 2 games.
Basically, I bet the home moneyline in every game (same amount in each) and
lost -$72 doing so. All my profit came from
over/under, with my algorithm recommending the under in all 4 matches, and all 4
hit. Now that Vasilevskiy is back on top of his game, I’m expecting lots of
unders in the Conference final. My enthusiasm for the Lightning would be higher
if Point was healthy, so if he does return for round 3, my money will shift to
Tampa pretty quick (as it will on home ice).
Edmonton vs Calgary: +$171
The Battle of Alberta included some very entertaining hockey games, but might have wrapped too soon to be considered epic. Calgary won impressively in game 1, but also nearly blew a 4-goal lead. The Oilers struck back with 4 consecutive wins. I correctly bet the Flames moneyline in game 1, then doubled down for game 2 ignoring the warning signs. I was down -$295 on this series heading into game 5 before laying a $250 bet on Edmonton +120. As I wrote in my notes; “wanted to take Calgary, but can’t pay -140 for a team that’s down 3-1 in the series”.
Overs went 5-1 and my algorithm went 3-2, producing a
$215 profit; which if you do the math, means I was a net loser betting
moneylines and pucklines. In game 1 of the conference final, my algorithm
recommended the over. I’m not confident that the Oilers can beat the Avalanche
in a 7-game series, but I’m also finding Colorado line prices to be unpalatable
in the playoffs and expect the series to be closer than suggested by the line
price.
St. Louis vs Colorado: -$681
My expectation for this series was that the Blues would be a difficult opponent for Colorado. I was anticipating an Avalanche win, but it wasn’t going to be a sweep. The problem for anyone betting the Avs to win was the line price, at -235 for games 2 & 5, implying a 70% probability of victory. If you bet $100 on the Colorado moneyline every game, you only walked away with $24 of profit. The Avs were favored in all 6 games, but only covered -1.5 goals twice. So, while there was a low return on the Avs moneyline, you fared even worse if you were betting pucklines. The only puckline that produced a positive return was Blues +1.5 goals (betting $100 on each yielded a $103 profit).
This was easily my worst 2nd round series, and
I don’t think I’m alone. The fact that road teams went 5-1 almost assures that
many bettors lost money on this series. Overs went 3-3 and my algorithm went
2-4 at selecting the correct outcome (recommending overs 5 times), leading to a
-$322 loss. If I had to bet on one of the final 4
teams to win the Stanley Cup, Colorado would have to be my pick. But I’d rather
make a large wager on them +120 to win the championship than bet them to win
any given game, unless the line prices become more reasonable.
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