Monday, October 17, 2022

2022/23 NHL Week 1 Betting Report

Welcome to my Week 1 NHL Betting Report, featuring my team Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. Click here to see my Week 25 Betting Report from last season.


My Week 1 Profit: $977

Welcome back! It was a long summer, one which I spent holed up in a bunker writing a book about hockey betting (coming soon), detailing the last 3 seasons of making a fake bet on every game. Other betting pundits switched to baseball or went on vacation, while my focus never shifted away from hockey. My summers are spent crunching hockey statistics, figuring out the season that just happened to prepare for the next one coming, and here we are. Hockey is back baby!

If you followed my weekly reports last season, one upgrade is that I’m now logging alt pucklines for every game, favorites +1.5 goals and underdogs -1.5 goals, though neither category has produced inspiring results quite yet. Dogs -1.5 goals did pull into the lead as best category on Thursday thanks to Boston +285, Seattle +370, Rangers +275, Dallas +300. Then there was categorical regression on Friday and Saturday. I personally did not bet a single dog -1.5, as the reason for tracking alt pucklines is to get a +1.5 and -1.5 number for each team each game.


This can be a frightening time of year to make a wager on hockey given the lack of data we have on each team, which can be a double-edged sword because oddsmakers also don’t fully know how good or bad each team is. My biggest issue in the face of lacking data is over/under betting, at least until Saturday. My primary algorithm looks at the last 5 games. My auxiliary algorithm looks back 10 games. Without that safety net, it was a rocky start betting goal totals, until going 9-3-2 on Saturday (with no games Sunday).

Granted, week 1 over/under betting was not a struggle last season, as I produced a 10% rate of return, achieved without an algorithm. Educated guesses worked. This was on pace to be a terrible O/U week, and the pessimistic recap that I wrote Friday night in the first draft of this report had to be re-edited Sunday. My algorithms will be consulted in week 2 to help me get a feel, but won’t be trusted until week 3 or 4. The algorithms that I use to determine appropriate line value on moneylines and pucklines probably won’t be heeded much for a couple more weeks, while teams build up a sufficient sample of both home and road games.


In the meantime, my own investments were skewed heavily to home teams in week 1, having observed their success in past season early in the schedule. That being said, it was more so in 2019 and 2021, as last season home teams were a net loser in the first 15 days, both moneyline and puckline -1.5 goals. My single largest loss this week came courtesy of a home favorite -1.5 goals vs a tired terrible team when Vegas failed to score on an empty net vs Chicago, but it was Alex Stalock’s fault that predicament unfolded. You can read more about that game in my worst team of the week section.


I was down -$500 after Thursdays games, then rallied back on Friday and Saturday. My weekly profit finished at $977 on $12,475 wagered, with $1,171 of my winnings coming from the moneyline, which by osmosis means -$194 on everything else. Moneylines carried me, but an even better output could have been attained by trusting home favorites puckline a little bit more. I got gun shy after Vegas failed to cover then missed an opportunity on the weekend, though I’ve got a complicated history with favorites -1.5 goals. In different situations the past 3 years, it has been both my best friend and my worst enemy.

Another thing that I’ll be tracking for the entire schedule is closing lines, and sharing observations as they are observed. This was something I tried for the final 600 games of 2021/22, which yielded some interesting results that you can read about in my new hockey betting book that will be available in the Amazon store on November 3rd. More on that to come.

My Week 1 Results

*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.

 

Home teams got out to fast start, dominating the categories for most of the week until getting clawed back on Friday and Saturday when home underdogs went 1-4. Home favorites -1.5 goals on the puckline did hold strong, as 79% of home favorites who won the game also covered -1.5 goals. It was different for me, with a higher rate of return on the home fave moneyline than -1.5 goals, but only because Jack Eichel couldn’t hit an empty net. If he had, my rate of return on home faves -1.5 goals would have been 73%, for a net profit of $2,000 (which would have made it my best category by far).

The week featured 9 games with a rest advantage vs tired opponents, and if you bet $100 on all of them -1.5 goals (including underdogs), you banked an impressive $880. Funny that the best category was actually my worst, thanks to Vegas failing to cover against Chicago (costing me -$1,000). Whereas I had a very strong return (27%) shorting back-to-backs on the moneyline. As you can read in my book coming soon, betting against back-to-backs produced a fantastic return for me last season. My concern is that oddsmakers also have that data and can adjust their lines accordingly (which has already begun).

Curiously, road moneyline was my second best category but was actually the worst overall if you bet $100 on each. Part of the explanation is that I only bet 6 of them, winning 5, and they were mostly good teams (aside from Chicago vs San Jose). Whereas it was mostly road underdogs who sank the category as a whole, losing -$750 while road faves lost only -$27. My other road moneyline wins were Vegas vs LA, Tampa vs Columbus, Carolina vs San Jose, and Calgary vs Edmonton, so it’s not like I was taking big risks on road moneyline.


Another category I’m tracking this season is live betting, which is done in a separate worksheet and not included in my weekly total. These are mostly hedges, when the team that I already bet has a lead and the opponent is offering a high payout on the live line. My data set is still small, as it was only something I started tracking towards the end of last season. Once my sample size is sufficiently large, I can start estimating the degree of fairness in any live line. What’s the expected rate of return with that line in that situation historically. I did hit one nice hedge in week one, Vancouver was up 2-0 on Philly in the 2nd period but were getting outshot 18-5. I had the Canucks moneyline, so took 1/3 of my projected winnings and put it on Philly at +550. They won 3-2. It really helped that I was watching the game.


My Team of the Week: Colorado Avalanche, +$686


The Colorado Avalanche only played 2 games in the opening week, and I bet the correct puckline in both. So not all this profit was produced betting Avs to win, but a large majority came from their Chicago game. Do note, I did not bet Calgary -1.5 goals against Colorado, even though the Avs played the night before. I never bet against Colorado -1.5 goals (though Calgary did cover), I was a coward and took the alt puckline +1.5 at -310. I should have just taken the Calgary moneyline, but I hit on the over too, so my results were good.

My second best team of the week was the Arizona Coyotes (+$481) who finished atop my Power Rankings last season. While Chicago spoiled a puckline on short rest in Las Vegas, the Coyotes committed no such foul as both my anti-Yote puckline bets -1.5 goals were winners. I’m skeptical this will continue to be profitable, because the lines for Arizona opponents in October 2022 are already a lot more expensive than October 2021. Last October when the Yotes when 0-9, their average opponent moneyline was -205. Through 2 games it is -315.

 

My Worst Team of the Week: Vegas Golden Knights, -$910

The Chicago Blackhawks visiting Las Vegas after chasing the speedy Colorado Avalanche around the ice at high altitude the night before felt like easy money. Maybe going from high to low altitude gave them an oxygen boost. I’m not precisely sure what happened. The Golden Knights were a Jack Eichel empty net goal away from being my best team of the week, but alas he missed. The only reason that the game came down to the final minutes is because Chicago goaltender Alex Stalock decided to be a hero, stopping 36 of 37 shots. I wagered my maximum amount of $1,000 on that puckline, which I had stopped doing entirely after January last season. I hit the -1.5 puckline jackpot betting against Arizona last October, so followed the same blueprint. I’m not pumping the brakes on shorting Chicago, but easing my foot off the gas pedal slightly.


My second worst team was the Seattle Kraken (-$433), who played Vegas at home on Saturday night. After the Golden Knights only beat Chicago 1-0 and the Kraken beat LA convincingly (on short rest when with me betting LA), I decided to try the Seattle moneyline at +125. Vegas won convincingly. I also lost a pair of bets on the Minnesota home moneyline, which historically has been a great bet. They gave up 14 goals in those 2 games, and there are big question marks about Fleury and the aging curve. He may very well settle down, but in the meantime, I love Minnesota overs.

 
My 3 Best Market Bets of Week 1:                    Overall Best Market Bets of Week 1:
 
1) Favorites moneyline: +$806                              1) vs Back-to-Back -1.5 goals: +$880
2) Road moneyline: +$608                                     2) Home favorites -1.5 goals: +$807
3) Home moneyline: +$563                                   3) Heavy favorites -1.5 goals: +$347
 
My 3 Worst Market Bets of Week 1:                 Overall Worst Market Bets of Week 1:
 
1) vs Back-to-Back -1.5 goals: -$1,000                1) Underdogs moneyline: -$835
2) Road favorites -1.5 goals: -$375                       2) Road moneyline: -$777
3) Under: -$202                                                     3) Road underdogs +1.5 goals: -$725
 
My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 1:              Overall Best Teams To Bet On:
(over/under not included)                                     ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
 
1) Colorado Avalanche: +$667                              1) Dallas Stars: +$768
2) Pittsburgh Penguins: +$577                               2) Detroit Red Wings: +$750
3) Winnipeg Jets: +$435                                        3) Boston Bruins: +$587
 
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week 1
(over/under not included)
 
1) Vegas Golden Knights, -$905
2) Minnesota Wild, -$350
3) Los Angeles Kings, -$250
 
My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week 1:       Overall Best Teams To Bet Against:
(over/under not included)                                       ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
 
1) Arizona Coyotes, +$681                                     1) New Jersey Devils: +$937
2) New York Rangers, +$335                                 2) San Jose Sharks: +$708
3) San Jose Sharks, +$306                                      3) Columbus Blue Jackets: +$569
 
*Note: All my winnings on Rangers to lose came from game in Winnipeg on a back-to-back with Shesterkin on the bench. Otherwise, I do not endorse betting against NYR.
 
My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week 1:
(over/under not included)
 
1) Chicago Blackhawks, -$333
2) Detroit Red Wings, -$250
3) Seattle Kraken, -$224
 
Market's Best Over/Under Bets In Week 1:  
($100 wagers)
 
1) Nashville unders, +$269
2) Carolina unders, +$186
3) Anaheim overs, +$183
 

Team By Team Power Rankings


These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new power rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.




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