NHL Top 300 Scorers For 2011/12 Forecast

Here is my forecast list for the NHL's top 300 scorers this 2011/12 season. There is some complex mathematics involved in the making of this list, which ironically predicted a 4 way tie for the NHL's leading point scorer between D.Sedin, Ovechkin, Perry, and Stamkos. Last year's data was the primary source, modified based on an age based rate of decline. 2009/2010 data was included in the database to measure last season's rate of decline or improvement. Players with large increases or declines in production are likely to regress back towards their mean.

Without further adieu, here are my projections. Note that the games played predictions are just an educated guess.

Player	Team	GP	PTS
Daniel Sedin	VAN	82	96
Steven Stamkos	TB	82	96
Corey Perry	ANA	82	96
Alex Ovechkin	WSH	79	96
Martin St. Louis	TB	82	92
Ryan Getzlaf	ANA	75	89
Sidney Crosby	PIT	60	87
Henrik Sedin	VAN	82	86
Jonathan Toews	CHI	80	82
Patrick Kane	CHI	75	81
Claude Giroux	PHI	82	79
Nicklas Backstrom	WSH	79	79
Henrik Zetterberg	DET	80	77
Bobby Ryan	ANA	82	77
Thomas Vanek	BUF	80	76
Eric Staal	CAR	81	76
Anze Kopitar	LA	75	75
Brad Richards	NYR	72	74
Evgeni Malkin	PIT	73	73
Matt Duchene	COL	80	73
John Tavares	NYI	79	72
Jarome Iginla	CGY	75	72
Jeff Skinner	CAR	82	72
Rick Nash	CBJ	75	71
Loui Eriksson	DAL	79	70
Pavel Datsyuk	DET	70	70
Derek Roy	BUF	73	70
Patrick Marleau	SJ	82	69
Ilya Kovalchuk	NJ	81	69
Alexander Semin	WSH	75	69
Jamie Benn	DAL	76	68
Mike Ribeiro	DAL	82	68
Mikko Koivu	MIN	75	68
Joe Pavelski	SJ	75	67
Mike Richards	LA	81	67
Phil Kessel	TOR	82	67
Chris Stewart	STL	75	66
Joe Thornton	SJ	80	66
Patrick Sharp	CHI	74	66
Teemu Selanne	ANA	70	66
Jason Spezza	OTT	72	66
Ryane Clowe	SJ	75	65
Zach Parise	NJ	75	65
Jeff Carter	CBJ	80	64
Marian Hossa	CHI	76	63
Lubomir Visnovsky	ANA	80	63
Danny Briere	PHI	77	63
Alex Tanguay	CGY	76	63
David Backes	STL	82	62
David Krejci	BOS	77	62
Paul Stastny	COL	75	62
Milan Lucic	BOS	78	61
Marian Gaborik	NYR	70	61
Brandon Dubinsky	NYR	80	61
Keith Yandle	PHX	82	61
Ales Hemsky	EDM	68	60
Andrew Ladd	WPG	81	60
Martin Havlat	SJ	78	60
Logan Couture	SJ	79	60
Drew Stafford	BUF	74	60
Vincent Lecavalier	TB	72	60
Clarke MacArthur	TOR	82	59
Taylor Hall	EDM	78	59
Ryan Callahan	NYR	72	58
Ryan Kesler	VAN	72	58
R.J. Umberger	CBJ	82	58
Mikhail Grabovski	TOR	80	57
Dustin Brown	LA	82	57
Nicklas Lidstrom	DET	82	56
Tyler Ennis	BUF	82	56
Jordan Eberle	EDM	78	56
Patrik Elias	NJ	81	56
Dany Heatley	MIN	80	56
Tomas Plekanec	MTL	77	56
Nikolai Kulemin	TOR	82	55
Patrik Berglund	STL	81	55
Jussi Jokinen	CAR	75	55
Shane Doan	PHX	72	55
Tobias Enstrom	WPG	75	55
Evander Kane	WPG	75	55
Michael Grabner	NYI	76	54
James Neal	PIT	79	54
Stephen Weiss	FLA	76	53
Alexander Steen	STL	75	53
Sergei Kostitsyn	NSH	78	53
Brad Boyes	BUF	82	53
Martin Erat	NSH	70	53
Matt Moulson	NYI	82	52
Duncan Keith	CHI	82	52
Tuomo Ruutu	CAR	76	52
Milan Hejduk	COL	73	52
Teddy Purcell	TB	81	52
Olli Jokinen	CGY	79	52
Jordan Staal	PIT	68	51
Patrice Bergeron	BOS	75	51
Patric Hornqvist	NSH	80	51
Pierre-Marc Bouchard	MIN	70	51
T.J. Oshie	STL	71	51
Travis Zajac	NJ	82	50
Johan Franzen	DET	74	50
Dustin Byfuglien	WPG	81	50
Alexander Edler	VAN	75	50
Andy McDonald	STL	65	50
Jakub Voracek	Phi	80	50
Dustin Penner	LA	81	50
Derek Brassard	CBJ	75	50
Derek Stepan	NYR	82	50
Ville Leino	BUF	82	50
Chris Kunitz	PIT	73	50
Ryan Whitney	EDM	73	50
Vaclav Prospal	CBJ	70	50
Shea Weber	NSH	82	50
Brenden Morrow	DAL	82	50
Blake Comeau	NYI	80	50
Ray Whitney	PHX	75	50
Antoine Vermette	CBJ	82	49
Nathan Horton	BOS	73	49
Kris Letang	PIT	82	49
Jason Pominville	BUF	70	49
Dan Boyle	SJ	76	48
Erik Karlsson	OTT	78	48
Devin Setoguchi	MIN	75	48
Mike Cammalleri	MTL	70	48
Rene Bourque	CGY	80	48
Scott Hartnell	PHI	82	48
Brent Burns	SJ	80	48
Brooks Laich	WSH	82	47
Artem Anisimov	NYR	82	47
Bryan Little	WPG	76	47
Justin Williams	LA	68	47
Sam Gagner	EDM	75	47
Alex Goligoski	DAL	82	47
David Jones	COL	80	47
Tomas Fleischmann	FLA	72	47
Radim Vrbata	PHX	80	47
James Wisniewski	CBJ	72	46
Alex Burrows	VAN	72	46
Frans Nielsen	NYI	74	46
Andrei Kostitsyn	MTL	81	46
P.A. Parenteau	NYI	81	46
Blake Wheeler	WPG	81	46
Wojtek Wolski	NYR	73	45
Erik Cole	MTL	78	45
Brad Marchand	BOS	78	45
Alex Pietrangelo	STL	79	45
Kris Versteeg	FLA	80	44
Kevin Shattenkirk	STL	72	44
Michael Frolik	CHI	80	44
Drew Doughty	LA	72	44
Bobby Butler	OTT	72	44
Jarret Stoll	LA	82	44
Tyler Myers	BUF	80	44
Andrew Cogliano	ANA	82	44
John-Michael Liles	TOR	75	44
James van Riemsdyk	PHI	75	44
Jack Johnson	LA	82	44
Daniel Cleary	DET	70	44
Mike Green	WSH	67	44
Tyler Kennedy	PIT	80	43
Ryan Suter	NSH	75	43
Valtteri Filppula	DET	73	43
Guillaume Latendresse	MIN	75	43
Tomas Kaberle	CAR	82	43
Rich Peverley	BOS	82	43
Brent Seabrook	CHI	75	43
Cam Fowler	ANA	78	43
Mikael Samuelsson	VAN	75	43
Scott Gomez	MTL	80	43
David Booth	FLA	80	42
Tyler Seguin	BOS	74	42
Zdeno Chara	BOS	81	42
Brian Gionta	MTL	82	42
Mikael Backlund	CGY	77	42
Curtis Glencross	CGY	79	42
Matt Carle	PHI	82	42
Tim Connolly	TOR	70	41
Benoit Pouliot	BOS	79	41
Nathan Gerbe	BUF	71	41
Dave Bolland	CHI	70	41
Matt D'Agostini	STL	82	41
David Legwand	NSH	72	41
Christian Ehrhoff	BUF	75	41
P.K. Subban	MTL	79	41
Mark Giordano	CGY	82	41
Anthony Stewart	CAR	75	41
Tyler Bozak	TOR	82	40
Andrew Brunette	CHI	82	40
Grant Clitsome	CBJ	68	40
Dennis Wideman	WSH	75	40
Matt Calvert	CBJ	68	40
Niclas Bergfors	NSH	75	40
Kyle Okposo	NYI	70	40
Magnus Paajarvi	EDM	80	40
Marek Zidlicky	MIN	74	39
Ryan Smyth	EDM	78	39
Lauri Korpikoski	PHX	80	39
Simon Gagne	LA	65	39
Joffrey Lupul	TOR	65	39
Bryan Bickell	CHI	78	39
John Carlson	WSH	82	39
Nik Antropov	WPG	76	38
Andrei Markov	MTL	65	38
Colin Wilson	NSH	82	38
Linus Omark	EDM	67	38
Todd Bertuzzi	DET	79	37
Kyle Brodziak	MIN	80	37
Milan Michalek	OTT	74	37
Jiri Hudler	DET	73	37
Saku Koivu	ANA	73	37
Niklas Kronwall	DET	77	37
Mason Raymond	VAN	65	37
Troy Brouwer	WSH	79	37
Cal O'Reilly	NSH	74	37
Anton Babchuk	CGY	82	37
Colin Greening	OTT	65	37
Nick Foligno	OTT	82	37
Peter Regin	OTT	74	37
Scottie Upshall	FLA	80	36
Joni Pitkanen	CAR	74	36
Shawn Horcoff	EDM	69	36
Brendan Morrison	Cgy	69	36
Ryan Malone	TB	54	36
Joe Corvo	BOS	80	36
Kimmo Timonen	PHI	82	35
Matt Stajan	CGY	76	35
Dion Phaneuf	TOR	74	35
Eric Belanger	EDM	82	35
Mats Zuccarello	NYR	60	35
Darren Helm	DET	82	35
Tomas Kopecky	FLA	81	34
Max Pacioretty	MTL	60	34
Lee Stempniak	CGY	82	34
Erik Johnson	COL	79	34
Zac Dalpe	CAR	72	34
Steve Downie	TB	57	34
Andrej Meszaros	PHI	81	34
Martin Hanzal	PHX	73	33
Pascal Dupuis	PIT	81	33
Cal Clutterbuck	MIN	76	33
Matt Cullen	MIN	78	33
Wayne Simmonds	Phi	80	33
Sergei Gonchar	OTT	70	33
Brandon Sutter	CAR	82	33
Ian White	DET	78	33
Kristian Huselius	CBJ	61	33
Dan Girardi	NYR	80	33
Roman Hamrlik	WSH	79	32
Jamie McBain	CAR	78	32
Mike Knuble	WSH	79	32
Mike Fisher	NSH	73	32
Dennis Seidenberg	BOS	81	32
David Moss	CGY	65	32
Michael Ryder	DAL	77	32
Ryan O'Reilly	COL	75	32
Josh Bailey	NYI	70	32
Cory Stillman	CAR	60	32
Mike Santorelli	FLA	73	31
Evgeni Dadonov	FLA	60	31
Andrew MacDonald	NYI	72	31
Christopher Higgins	VAN	70	31
Marcus Johansson	WSH	69	31
Vladimir Sobotka	STL	65	31
Nazem Kadri	TOR	65	31
Jannik Hansen	VAN	82	31
Nikita Filatov	OTT	70	31
Cody Franson	TOR	80	31
Jordan Leopold	BUF	74	31
Andrej Sekera	BUF	76	31
Mikkel Boedker	PHX	65	30
Daniel Alfredsson	OTT	60	30
Rostislav Olesz	CHI	68	30
Tomas Holmstrom	DET	73	30
Marcel Goc	FLA	64	30
Paul Gaustad	BUF	81	30
Kyle Turris	PHX	68	30
Brandon McMillan	ANA	72	29
Brandon Yip	COL	73	29
Brett Clark	TB	82	29
Dominic Moore	TB	77	29
Brandon Prust	NYR	82	29
Sean Bergenheim	FLA	80	29
Steve Ott	DAL	78	29
Taylor Pyatt	PHX	76	29
Erik Condra	OTT	65	29
Dmitry Kulikov	FLA	75	29
Brian Boyle	NYR	82	29
Gregory Campbell	BOS	80	28
Paul Martin	PIT	79	28
Colby Armstrong	TOR	64	28
Stephane Robidas	DAL	81	28
Shawn Matthias	FLA	80	28
Brian Campbell	FLA	71	28
Chris Kelly	BOS	81	28
Tom Gilbert	EDM	79	28
Mark Letestu	PIT	64	28
Marc Staal	NYR	70	28
Victor Hedman	TB	79	28
Matt Cooke	PIT	70	28
Brian Rolston	NYI	65	28
Chad LaRose	CAR	76	27